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CNBC Daily Open Urges Investors to Caution Ahead of November CPI Release

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  Published in Stocks and Investing on Thursday, December 18th 2025 at 21:03 GMT by CNBC

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CNBC Daily Open: Why You Shouldn’t Over‑bet on the November CPI Report

The CNBC Daily Open—CNBC’s flagship daily market‑opening show—tipped investors this morning to keep a measured approach to the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for November, even as markets are braced for the data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. The segment, co‑hosted by Andrew Larkin and Brian Sullivan, blended a quick recap of overnight trading, a snapshot of the most recent economic indicators, and a frank discussion about what the CPI could mean for stocks, bonds, and the broader economy. Below, we unpack the main take‑aways, the context behind the guidance, and the strategic take‑aways for portfolio managers and individual investors alike.

1. What the CNBC Daily Open Said About the CPI

The segment opened with a reminder that the CPI is one of the most closely watched gauges of inflation, serving as the cornerstone for the Fed’s inflation‑targeting framework. “The CPI can set the tone for the Fed’s policy direction in the coming quarters,” Larkin noted. The November CPI data is set to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET, with market participants expecting a headline figure somewhere between 3.5% and 3.8% year‑over‑year—slightly above the consensus forecast of 3.6% (a link to the Fed’s preliminary CPI release is embedded in the article for quick reference).

The hosts stressed that while the CPI figure itself is important, the Fed’s reaction—and the market’s reaction to that reaction—is what investors should focus on. “If the CPI comes in higher than expected, the Fed might keep rates steady for longer,” Sullivan said, pointing to the Fed’s latest policy statement (link to the Fed’s June 2025 meeting minutes) that indicates a “gradual path to normalization” with a pause until at least Q1 2026.

2. Why the Report Is a “Best Not to Put Too Much Stock” Moment

The CNBC article’s headline—“Best not to put too much stock in US CPI report for November” –underscores the sentiment that the market is already priced in most of the CPI’s upside or downside. The segment referenced overnight trading data showing a muted reaction to the release of the October CPI data, which beat expectations by a whisker but didn’t trigger a sharp spike in bond yields. “The markets have been in a state of high valuation yet low volatility,” Larkin said. “That means the CPI could still surprise, but the big move will likely be the Fed’s commentary.”

The hosts also highlighted that the CPI’s “core” component—excluding food and energy—has shown a sustained uptick, a trend that the Fed has been monitoring closely. They noted that the core CPI’s “steady climb” suggests the Fed might lean toward a more hawkish stance in future meetings. Yet, they cautioned that this would not necessarily translate into an immediate “sell” wave for equities. Instead, it may lead to a longer-term shift in risk‑aversion.

3. Market Context: Where the CPI Fits Within the Macro Landscape

The Daily Open was part of a broader discussion about the U.S. economy’s “slow‑down, but not a downturn” narrative. The segment linked to a Bloomberg piece on inflation expectations (link to Bloomberg’s CPI expectations survey) that shows a gradual decline in consumer inflation expectations, implying that consumers are becoming more resilient to price increases. Meanwhile, the segment highlighted the latest corporate earnings, particularly from the technology sector, where companies have been posting robust growth yet still facing higher borrowing costs due to rising rates.

CNBC also referenced the Treasury market. The 10‑year yield has hovered around 4.45% as of yesterday’s close, a level that signals modest expectations of Fed tightening. “If the CPI pushes the yield curve higher, that will compress equity valuations,” Sullivan said. The hosts suggested that investors might consider rotating into defensive sectors such as utilities and consumer staples, which historically perform better in a tightening monetary environment.

4. Strategic Take‑Aways for Investors

Diversify, don’t bet on one headline
Larkin advised that “a single economic indicator can’t dictate a portfolio.” They stressed the importance of maintaining a diversified mix—balancing growth equities with dividend‑yielding staples and considering fixed‑income hedges that protect against rising yields.

Focus on the Fed’s tone
Rather than the CPI itself, the hosts emphasized the Fed’s “policy language” as the true signal. “The Fed’s statement is a better barometer of future rate hikes than the raw CPI number,” Sullivan told viewers.

Re‑evaluate risk appetite
With the possibility of the Fed keeping rates higher for longer, the segment urged investors to re‑examine their risk tolerance. “If your portfolio is heavily weighted toward high‑beta stocks, you may need to trim exposure,” Larkin said.

Use the CPI as a market timing signal
Investors with a tactical edge might view a higher‑than‑expected CPI as a cue to short certain sectors that are highly sensitive to borrowing costs, while longing those with built‑in pricing power—like consumer staples and healthcare.

5. Key Points to Keep in Mind

• The November CPI release is expected to be between 3.5% and 3.8% year‑over‑year, higher than the consensus forecast of 3.6%.
• Market participants have largely priced in potential surprises; the real action will be in how the Fed responds.
• The Fed is likely to keep rates unchanged until at least Q1 2026, but may lean toward a more hawkish stance as core CPI stays elevated.
• A modest shift in Treasury yields could compress equity valuations, especially in high‑beta sectors.
• Diversification, risk‑tolerance assessment, and a focus on Fed policy language are the best strategies in this environment.

6. Final Thought

The CNBC Daily Open’s message is clear: treat the CPI release as one piece of a larger puzzle. While it remains a critical indicator for inflation expectations and Fed policy, it should not be the sole driver of portfolio decisions. By keeping a balanced view—diversifying across asset classes, monitoring the Fed’s tone, and staying mindful of risk—investors can navigate the uncertainties of an inflation‑tightening environment without over‑exposing themselves to any single data point.

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