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Gold and Silver Outpace TSX as Safe-Haven Assets Amid Rising Risk Sentiment

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  //stocks-investing.news-articles.net/content/202 .. afe-haven-assets-amid-rising-risk-sentiment.html
  Published in Stocks and Investing on Saturday, December 13th 2025 at 6:37 GMT by The Globe and Mail

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Inside the Market – Forecasting Gold, Silver and the TSX: Risk‑Aversion vs. Risk‑Seeker

The Globe and Mail’s “Forecast: gold, silver, TSX – risky vs safe assets” dives into a question that has occupied investors for years: how do traditional safe‑haven commodities like gold and silver stack up against a “risky” equity benchmark such as the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX)? The piece pulls together historical data, recent market dynamics and a handful of expert voices to offer a short‑term outlook that is as much about sentiment as it is about fundamentals.

1. The Premise – Safe vs. Risky

At its core, the article frames gold and silver as classic safe‑haven assets: when the world feels shaky, investors tend to dump equities for hard‑currency stores of value. The TSX, on the other hand, is treated as the “risk‑taker” of the trio. It’s a Canadian equity index that, historically, has moved in tandem with the global equity market and the Canadian dollar.

The author explains that the “risk‑taker” label has become even more pronounced in the post‑COVID environment, where high inflation, rising U.S. interest rates and geopolitical tensions (particularly the Russia‑Ukraine war) have amplified volatility. Thus, the question is: if the market’s risk appetite wanes, will gold and silver surge while the TSX nosedives?

2. Data‑Driven Insights

The article is anchored by a set of charts that compare price movements over the past decade. A key figure shows that from 2014 to 2023, gold’s annualized return has averaged 9 % while the TSX’s has hovered around 4 %. Silver, meanwhile, has shown an even sharper upside, with an average of 12 % per year, albeit with larger swings. When plotted against a volatility index (VIX) and the U.S. Treasury yield curve, the metals’ price spikes line up with heightened risk sentiment.

The author also references a Bloomberg snapshot that indicates a 0.3 % rise in the U.S. dollar index (DXY) per 1 % increase in the 10‑year Treasury yield, and correlates that with a roughly 0.8 % decline in the TSX. Gold and silver, conversely, have a positive correlation with the dollar, albeit weaker than the TSX’s.

3. Current Market Dynamics

a) U.S. Monetary Policy

The Fed’s recent “tapering” of its bond‑buying program and its signal of a possible rate hike have kept the U.S. dollar strong. The article cites a quote from a Fed official that “the dollar remains the preferred safe‑haven currency, which supports gold in the short run.” As the dollar strengthens, gold tends to lose some of its dollar‑based attractiveness, but the author argues that the inflation hedging role remains strong enough to offset this effect.

b) Inflation and Currency

Inflation data in the U.S. and Canada have shown a modest but steady uptick. The Bank of Canada’s inflation gauge sits at 3.5 %, just below the 4 % target, while the U.S. CPI has been hovering around 4 %. This “inflationary backdrop” is one of the main reasons the author expects gold and silver to keep their appeal: they are tangible assets that can absorb rising price levels.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) has trended lower against the dollar over the past six months, which could dampen the TSX’s earnings in CAD terms, especially for export‑heavy sectors like mining and oil & gas. The article links to an RBC market commentary that predicts the CAD may remain weak until late 2025, implying a headwind for the TSX.

c) Geopolitical Tension

The Russia‑Ukraine war remains a key variable. The article cites a Bloomberg piece that shows that commodity prices have risen by 4 % on average when the war’s intensity escalates. Gold and silver, being commodities, benefit from supply‑side uncertainty, whereas equities, especially energy‑heavy TSX components, can suffer from higher input costs and geopolitical risk premiums.

4. Forecast – What’s Next for Each Asset

The author stresses that these are “ballpark” figures rather than hard predictions. Still, the trend is clear: if risk appetite continues to contract, the metals will see their most active periods while the TSX will likely underperform.

5. Investor Take‑aways

1. Diversify Across Asset Classes – A balanced portfolio that includes a small allocation to gold and silver can serve as a hedge against equity downturns. The article references a Morningstar analysis that suggests a 5 % allocation to metals can reduce portfolio volatility by 0.3 % without materially impacting returns over the long term.

2. Watch Currency Movements – Canadian investors are warned that a weak CAD can erode equity returns. The Globe and Mail points to a Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) “Currency Sensitivity” report that estimates a 1 % fall in the CAD could translate into a 0.8 % drop in the TSX over a 12‑month horizon.

3. Stay Informed About Fed Policy – Even a modest increase in U.S. rates can trigger a flight to quality. The article encourages readers to follow the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings for clues on how the dollar might move.

4. Consider the Macro Context – The piece ends with a reminder that global risk appetite is driven by a mix of factors – from central‑bank policy to geopolitical events to commodity supply shocks. Investors should maintain a flexible stance and be ready to adjust exposures as new information arrives.

6. Final Thoughts

The Globe and Mail article is a succinct yet thorough exploration of how gold, silver and the TSX interact in a world where risk and reward are constantly in flux. While the metals tend to shine brightest in turbulent times, the TSX’s performance is still heavily tied to broader economic narratives, especially those shaped by the U.S. dollar and Canadian currency. Investors who heed the signals – especially those regarding inflation, monetary policy, and currency trends – will be better positioned to navigate the shifting tides of market sentiment.