AI Rally Explained: Core vs Peripheral Players
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How to Join the AI Rally Without Taking on Major Risk
Summarizing a Toronto Star feature (originally published 2023)
Artificial‑intelligence (AI) is the most talked‑about technology of the decade, and the stock market has responded with a pronounced “AI rally.” Yet the same hype that fuels soaring valuations also raises the stakes for investors who may be tempted to chase quick gains by buying a single AI name or a speculative play. The Toronto Star article “How to Get in on the AI Rally Without Taking on Major Risk” offers a practical, risk‑aware playbook for investors who want to capture the upside of AI while limiting exposure to the volatility that can accompany a hype cycle.
1. Understand the Two Faces of the AI Rally
The piece opens by distinguishing two categories of AI exposure:
| Category | What It Looks Like | Typical Companies |
|---|---|---|
| Core AI Drivers | Companies that develop the technology (hardware, software, or cloud platforms) and generate substantial revenue from it | NVIDIA, AMD, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon |
| Peripheral AI Players | Firms that are only “using” AI in niche ways (e.g., logistics, consumer goods, fintech) | Tesla, Shopify, Square, Wayfair |
The article cautions that while core drivers are more likely to benefit from a sustained AI trend, peripheral players can be more volatile, especially if their AI initiatives are still unproven or rely heavily on a single product.
2. The ETF Solution: Diversified, Low‑Cost Exposure
The Star recommends exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) as the most efficient way to gain diversified exposure to the AI space. Several ETFs are highlighted, each with a different focus:
| ETF | Focus | Expense Ratio | Notable Holdings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ) | Robotics and AI | 0.68 % | NVIDIA, ABB, iRobot |
| iShares Robotics and Artificial Intelligence Multisector ETF (IRBO) | Multi‑sector AI | 0.59 % | NVIDIA, Microsoft, Alphabet |
| ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ) | Disruptive tech, including AI | 0.75 % | Tesla, Roku, Palantir |
| Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) | Indirect AI exposure via large‑cap tech | 0.20 % | Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Google |
The article notes that while ARKQ offers the highest concentration in “high‑growth” AI plays, its expense ratio and volatility make it less suitable for risk‑averse investors. In contrast, IRBO and BOTZ provide a broader spread across multiple sectors, reducing the impact of a single company’s performance.
Key Takeaway: An investor looking for a “low‑risk” entry point can buy 10–15 % of their portfolio in an AI‑focused ETF like IRBO, thereby capturing the broader market upside without over‑concentrating in any one name.
3. A Balanced Stock List: Core and Peripheral
For investors who prefer individual stocks or want to supplement ETF holdings, the article proposes a balanced list of core AI stocks and peripheral “add‑ons.”
Core AI Stocks (High conviction, proven AI pipeline)
- NVIDIA (NVDA) – GPU leader, AI inference workloads
- Microsoft (MSFT) – Azure AI services
- Alphabet (GOOG) – Cloud AI, TensorFlow
- Amazon (AMZN) – AWS AI, Alexa
Peripheral AI Plays (Higher risk, higher potential upside)
- Tesla (TSLA) – AI for self‑driving
- Shopify (SHOP) – AI‑driven e‑commerce tools
- Square (SQ) – AI in fintech analytics
- Roku (ROKU) – AI ad targeting
The piece stresses the importance of dollar‑cost averaging (DCA) when buying these individual stocks. By purchasing on a regular schedule—say, the first of each month—the investor smooths out short‑term swings and avoids the temptation to time the market.
4. Risk‑Management Tools
Risk mitigation is a central theme. The article recommends three practical strategies:
Set a Maximum Exposure Threshold – Limit AI holdings to no more than 10 % of the overall portfolio. If the AI bubble corrects, this keeps losses contained.
Use Stop‑Loss Orders on Individual Stocks – For high‑beta AI names, a 15–20 % stop‑loss can protect against sudden market reversals.
Regular Portfolio Rebalancing – Every quarter, review the AI allocation. If AI stocks have surged to 15 % of the portfolio, sell a portion to re‑enter other sectors.
The author quotes a portfolio‑manager who uses a “risk‑budgeting” framework: each asset class has a pre‑defined volatility target, and AI exposure is capped accordingly.
5. Long‑Term Perspective: The “AI Dividend” Approach
A recurring argument in the article is that AI is not a short‑term fad but a structural shift in how businesses operate. Therefore, an “AI dividend” approach—treating AI as an ongoing driver of productivity—justifies a longer‑term hold.
- Fundamental Analysis: Evaluate companies’ AI revenue as a percentage of total earnings and look for a sustainable growth trajectory.
- Technology Roadmap: Prefer firms that publish detailed AI roadmaps and have demonstrable progress (e.g., product releases, patents).
- Competitive Position: Consider whether the company has a moat in AI (e.g., proprietary chips, massive data sets).
By focusing on fundamentals, the article suggests investors can mitigate the “hype‑driven” risk that plagues many AI‑related ventures.
6. Additional Resources (Links Followed in the Original Article)
The Star article links to several supplementary resources that deepen the reader’s understanding:
- Investopedia’s AI ETF Guide – Provides a side‑by‑side comparison of AI ETFs’ holdings, performance, and fees.
- Morningstar Analyst Report on ARKQ – Offers an in‑depth analysis of the ETF’s risk profile and top holdings.
- NVIDIA Investor Presentation – Highlights the company’s AI revenue mix and future product roadmap.
- Financial Times’ “AI Bubble? What You Need to Know” – Discusses macro‑economic factors that could influence the AI rally.
These links, while external, reinforce the article’s central thesis: that thoughtful, diversified, and fundamentals‑driven investing can allow individuals to participate in AI’s upside without succumbing to its inherent volatility.
7. Bottom Line
The Toronto Star article does not promise overnight wealth. Instead, it frames the AI rally as a long‑term growth engine that can be captured safely through:
- Diversified ETFs (particularly IRBO and BOTZ) for broad exposure
- Core AI stock holdings (NVIDIA, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon) with dollar‑cost averaging
- Strategic risk management (cap exposure at 10 %, use stop‑losses, rebalance quarterly)
By blending these elements, investors can ride the AI wave while keeping the financial shock of a potential bubble‑burst at bay. The key message is simple: invest in AI the way you invest in any high‑growth sector—carefully, systematically, and with an eye on fundamentals.
Read the Full Toronto Star Article at:
[ https://www.thestar.com/business/personal-finance/how-to-get-in-on-the-ai-rally-without-taking-on-major-risk/article_0195dc55-1e6c-5066-bf44-df8090e5c07c.html ]