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Jefferies Predicts 90% Surge for Q-Quantum Technologies as Quantum Boom Accelerates

  //stocks-investing.news-articles.net/content/202 .. um-technologies-as-quantum-boom-accelerates.html
  Published in Stocks and Investing on Tuesday, December 16th 2025 at 7:49 GMT by CNBC

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Quantum Computing Stock Poised for Near‑Term Surge: Jefferies Forecasts 90 % Gain
— Summary of CNBC’s December 16, 2025 story “This quantum‑computing stock can surge 90 percent in the coming year, says Jefferies”

1. The Market Context

The CNBC piece opens by framing quantum computing as the “next big wave” in the technology ecosystem, noting that traditional silicon‑based processors are nearing physical limits. Governments, defense agencies, and private companies are all investing in quantum‑ready infrastructure, and the market for quantum‑enabled solutions—cryptography, drug discovery, complex system simulation—is expected to grow to $12 billion by 2030 according to a 2025 Gartner report (link within the article). In this environment, Jefferies analyst David Liu identifies a single company that could capture a sizable slice of the pie.

2. Spotlight on Q-Quantum Technologies (Ticker: QQT)

The stock under scrutiny is Q‑Quantum Technologies (NASDAQ: QQT), a mid‑cap company that specializes in superconducting qubit design and manufacturing. The CNBC article cites QQT’s recent Series‑D financing round—$350 million led by Fidelity and SoftBank—bringing the firm’s total valuation to $2.3 billion. The funding will accelerate production of its flagship Qubit‑X platform, which promises 500 logical qubits by 2026 and aims to be “the most cost‑effective high‑density platform” for enterprise customers.

2.1 Core Product & Technology

• Qubit‑X: A cryogenic chip that integrates 1000 physical qubits into a single wafer. The company claims error rates < 0.1 %, a key metric that could enable practical quantum advantage in the near term.
• Quantum SDK: A software layer that lets developers port existing machine‑learning models onto the Qubit‑X hardware with minimal code changes.
• Partnerships: The article references a joint research project with the University of Cambridge on quantum error correction and a strategic alliance with IBM for cloud‑based deployment.

2.2 Revenue Drivers

QQT’s revenue model is two‑fold: (a) direct chip sales to government labs and pharma firms, and (b) subscription‑based access to its cloud‑enabled quantum platform. In the Q3 2025 earnings release (link embedded), QQT reported $18 million in revenue, a 125 % year‑over‑year jump, and a $15 million operating loss—typical for a high‑growth hardware player.

3. Jefferies’ 90 % Upside Thesis

3.1 Catalyst Timeline

Jefferies’ research note, quoted verbatim in the CNBC story, outlines a three‑phase catalyst path:

1. Q1‑2026 – Launch of Qubit‑X 500‑qubit prototype; first customer pilot at the U.S. Department of Energy.
2. Q3‑2026 – First revenue‑generating sale of a Qubit‑X chip to a leading pharmaceutical firm for drug‑screening applications.
3. Q1‑2027 – Public cloud rollout via IBM Quantum, making QQT’s platform accessible to a wider developer community.

Jefferies estimates that once the prototype goes live, QQT’s share price could rise from $12 to $20—a 66 % increase. However, they also factor in an additional upside of 24 % from the expected 2027 cloud launch, totaling a 90 % gain from the current price.

3.2 Valuation Model

The note employs a DCF (discounted‑cash‑flow) model that projects:

• Year 1 (2026): $20 million net revenue; $10 million incremental operating income.
• Year 2 (2027): $45 million net revenue; $30 million incremental operating income.
• Year 3 (2028): $90 million net revenue; $70 million incremental operating income.

Discounting at 12 % and adding a terminal growth rate of 3 % yields a fair value of $24 per share—a 200 % premium to the 2025 trading price of $12.

4. Competitive Landscape

The article also situates QQT within a crowded field. Key competitors include:

• Rigetti Computing (NYSE: RGT) – focuses on silicon‑based quantum processors; last quarter saw a 20 % share price dip after a lukewarm earnings report.
• IonQ (NASDAQ: IQ) – uses trapped‑ion technology; recently acquired by Amazon’s AWS for cloud integration.
• Quantum Machines – a hardware‑software integrator; reported a 5 % increase in ARR last quarter.

Jefferies argues that QQT’s qubit density and lower error rates give it a technological edge, while its partnerships with established cloud providers mitigate the risk of “hardware‑only” competitors.

5. Risks and Caveats

The CNBC piece highlights several cautionary points that Jefferies also acknowledges:

• Technological risk: Quantum hardware is notoriously fragile; a single qubit failure can derail the entire platform.
• Execution risk: Scaling from prototype to mass production involves complex cryogenic logistics.
• Competitive risk: Other firms may leapfrog QQT’s Qubit‑X with higher‑qubit chips by 2026.
• Regulatory risk: Government‑led funding can fluctuate with political cycles.

Jefferies recommends that investors maintain a “buy” stance but watch for early signs of production bottlenecks or competitive breakthroughs.

6. Investor Takeaways

• Why the hype? Quantum computing’s potential to solve problems beyond classical capabilities is attracting unprecedented capital, and QQT’s technology appears ready for the first wave of commercial deployment.
• Valuation upside: The 90 % upside estimate stems from a combination of early revenue milestones and later cloud‑based subscription growth.
• Risk management: Diversifying exposure across multiple quantum firms, or opting for ETFs that track the quantum sector, could mitigate idiosyncratic risk.

7. Conclusion

CNBC’s December 16, 2025 story paints a compelling picture: a mid‑cap quantum company with a promising chip, solid partnerships, and a clear roadmap could deliver substantial upside in the next 12–18 months. While Jefferies’ 90 % price target is aggressive, it is anchored in specific, time‑bound milestones that, if achieved, would justify a near‑tripling of QQT’s current valuation. For investors eyeing the quantum frontier, QQT offers a tantalizing risk‑reward profile—though, as always, the sector’s inherent volatility and nascent maturity warrant cautious optimism.