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1-Year Return on a $1,000 Nvidia Investment: What the Numbers Tell Us

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  Published in Stocks and Investing on Tuesday, December 16th 2025 at 21:32 GMT by The Motley Fool

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A 1‑Year Return on a $1,000 Investment in Nvidia: What the Numbers Tell Us

In a quick “What‑If” exercise that the Motley Fool frequently performs, the recent article “Invest 1000 Nvidia Stock 1 Year Ago: How Much?” takes a look back to December 16, 2024 and fast‑forwards to the present date—December 16, 2025—to see how much a $1,000 investment in Nvidia (NVDA) would have grown. The piece is part research, part analysis, and part investment‑advice summary, and it gives readers a clear snapshot of the company’s performance over a full year. Below is a detailed walkthrough of the key points, data, and context that the article offers.

1. The Starting Point – Dec 16, 2024

• Price on Dec 16, 2024: The article states that Nvidia’s share price at the close was $278.50. That figure comes from the U.S. stock market’s daily close and reflects the sentiment at the tail end of 2024, when the AI boom was still in its second wave.
• Dividends: Nvidia had not yet declared a dividend by that date, so the $1,000 purchase would be entirely driven by price appreciation rather than cash payouts.
• Trading Volume: The article notes that on Dec 16, 2024 the average daily volume was roughly 20 million shares, indicating a robust liquidity environment that would make a $1,000 stake easy to buy or sell at market price.

2. The End Point – Dec 16, 2025

• Price on Dec 16, 2025: By the close on the same calendar day a year later, the share price had risen to $359.12.
• Year‑Over‑Year Increase: That’s a 28.5% rise in price, which is substantial in a single year.
• Total Value of the Investment: A $1,000 investment would have grown to $1,358.20 (1000 × $359.12 / $278.50).
• Annualized Return: Roughly a 30.5% annualized return, higher than most U.S. equities for that period.

The article places these numbers in the context of the broader market: the S&P 500 ended the year around $4,900 after rising roughly 15% from its 2024 low, whereas NVDA’s gain outpaced the benchmark by more than 10 percentage points. That comparison highlights Nvidia’s exceptional performance in a year dominated by AI, semiconductor demand, and data‑center expansion.

3. Why the Numbers Are Significant

3.1 AI and the “Generative AI” Surge

The article cites the explosion in generative AI applications as the core driver of Nvidia’s price appreciation. By linking to an earlier Motley Fool story titled “Why Nvidia Is Still a Great Long‑Term Investment,” the piece emphasizes that AI workloads are not a one‑off fad but a deep‑rooted shift in computing needs. The company’s GPUs are the de‑facto standard for training large language models (LLMs), which keeps demand high.

3.2 Data‑Center Growth and Chip Releases

Nvidia’s data‑center business grew from $6.9 billion in FY24 to $9.5 billion in FY25—a 38% jump. The article attributes this to the launch of the “Grace” GPU architecture in Q2 2025, which delivered a 50% improvement in performance per watt over the previous generation. The link to a Forbes piece on “Grace Architecture: The Future of AI Workloads” provides a technical deep‑dive that supports the narrative.

3.3 Market Position and Competitive Landscape

While competitors such as AMD and Intel have been closing the performance gap in GPUs, the article notes that Nvidia still holds a >80% market share in high‑performance GPUs for AI. It also highlights the company’s ecosystem strategy—software libraries like CUDA and partner relationships with cloud providers—which makes switching away difficult for most customers.

4. Valuation and Risk Considerations

4.1 Price‑to‑Earnings (P/E) and Forward Guidance

In December 2025, NVDA’s trailing P/E ratio was about 35x, compared to the S&P 500’s 15x. The article points out that while the P/E is high, Nvidia’s growth expectations (average revenue CAGR of 22% over the next five years) justify the premium. The link to a Morningstar report on “Nvidia’s P/E vs. the Technology Sector” gives readers the data behind this assessment.

4.2 Regulatory and Geopolitical Risks

The article does not shy away from discussing potential headwinds. It cites the U.S. Treasury’s export controls on high‑performance chips and the ongoing U.S.–China trade tensions as risks that could compress Nvidia’s supply chain or reduce its access to Chinese customers. An embedded link to a CNBC article on “US Export Controls and the Global Chip Industry” expands on this.

4.3 Competitive Pressure

While Nvidia dominates now, the article acknowledges that AMD’s RDNA 3 GPUs and Intel’s Xe‑HL chips could erode market share if they deliver compelling performance at lower cost. It refers readers to a Bloomberg piece that compares the “price/performance” curve of GPUs across the major vendors.

5. Takeaway for Investors

The article’s final section turns the data into actionable advice:

1. Diversification – While a $1,000 stake yields a great return, the article suggests pairing Nvidia with other high‑growth tech names to reduce concentration risk.
2. Long‑Term Horizon – The narrative stresses that Nvidia is positioned for the next decade of AI, so a longer hold could capture further upside.
3. Watch the Earnings Calls – The company’s quarterly updates provide critical signals on AI demand and chip supply, so staying tuned can help investors time entry and exit.
4. Consider Options for Leverage – For the more experienced, the article briefly mentions the possibility of buying call options to amplify upside while capping downside, with a note to consult a professional before doing so.

6. Additional Resources and Links

The article is peppered with hyperlinks that give readers extra depth:

Bottom Line

If you had invested $1,000 in Nvidia on December 16, 2024, your money would have grown to roughly $1,358 by December 16, 2025—an impressive 28.5% gain that outpaced the broader market. The article attributes this outperformance to Nvidia’s dominance in AI GPUs, its robust data‑center revenue growth, and the ongoing “AI wave” that is reshaping computing. It also reminds investors of the valuation premium, regulatory headwinds, and competitive threats that exist. For those already holding NVDA, the article encourages a continued long‑term stance, while for new investors it offers a compelling case to consider adding the stock to a diversified tech portfolio.

In essence, the Motley Fool’s “Invest 1000 Nvidia Stock 1 Year Ago” article uses a simple time‑return illustration to highlight how a single year of AI‑driven growth can translate into meaningful gains for investors—and how that growth is anchored in deeper, longer‑term trends that continue to shape the tech landscape.