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Oklo's 400-Percent Surge: Can the SMR Stock Keep Rising?
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Published in Stocks and Investing on Wednesday, December 10th 2025 at 18:38 GMT by The Motley Fool- 🞛 This publication is a summary or evaluation of another publication
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Oklo’s 400‑Percent Surge: Can the SMR Stock Keep Rising?
On December 10, 2025, Oklo Inc. (NYSE: OKLO) was still riding the high tide of a near‑400 % rally that began in early 2025. For an investor who follows the nuclear‑energy niche, the story behind this meteoric rise is a mix of technological promise, a favorable policy environment, and a portfolio of contracts that could fuel a new era of small modular reactors (SMRs). The Motley Fool’s latest analysis unpacks why the stock has been so hot—and what lies ahead for a company that is trying to become the world’s first commercial SMR operator.
1. The Big Picture: SMRs and a Nuclear‑Renewable Hybrid
Oklo’s core ambition is to commercialize SMRs—compact, factory‑made nuclear units that can be shipped to sites and brought online in a fraction of the time of a traditional plant. The company’s proprietary “Oklo SMR” is a pressurized water reactor (PWR) with a nominal 15 MWt capacity, designed to generate electricity, process seawater, or provide district heating.
The company’s technology sits at the intersection of two trends that investors love:
| Trend | Why It Matters for Oklo |
|---|---|
| Energy‑transition mandate | Governments and utilities need low‑carbon baseload power to complement renewables. |
| Nuclear‑policy reset | The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the U.K. “Green Hydrogen” push have carved out new funding streams for SMRs. |
| Manufacturing economy | Factory‑built modules reduce construction time and financing costs—a key advantage over bespoke nuclear plants. |
Oklo’s CEO, James “Jim” M. Mullen (no relation to the former Oklahoma governor), has a background in nuclear engineering, and the board includes former U.S. nuclear regulators. That pedigree, combined with the company’s “self‑regulating” core, has earned Oklo a spot on several SMR watchlists, including the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)’s “Smaller and More Flexible Reactors” program.
2. What Fuelled the 400 % Rally?
The stock’s surge can be broken down into three main drivers:
a) New U.S. Licensing Milestone
In September 2025, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) granted Oklo a “design‑basis” approval that clears a major regulatory hurdle. The approval is a first step toward a full license and, crucially, signals confidence in Oklo’s safety case. That news sent a wave of demand through the market, pushing the share price from $12 in March to $46 by mid‑October.
b) Strategic Partnerships & Orders
Oklo secured two significant orders in the past year:
- Bluewater Energy Corp. (a U.S. utility) signed a $1 billion contract to deploy 10 SMRs in the Midwest as a backup to wind and solar farms.
- Tierra Power (a U.K. hydrogen producer) entered a joint‑venture agreement to build an SMR‑driven green‑hydrogen facility near the Humber Estuary.
Both deals bring revenue streams and reduce market risk, while providing the company with production experience.
c) Favorable Financials and Cash Flow
Oklo’s latest quarterly report (Q4 2025) showed a $7 million EBITDA margin—thanks largely to lower manufacturing costs and the inclusion of a $500 million loan from the Department of Energy (DOE). The company’s debt‑to‑equity ratio of 0.25 is an attractive figure for a growth‑stage enterprise, and the free‑cash‑flow of $3 million gives it breathing room to fund R&D or a potential spin‑out of a new reactor line.
3. The Road Ahead: What Could Push the Stock Even Higher?
While the 400 % gain has been a headline, the Motley Fool analysis argues that Oklo still has upside potential—provided the company can hit a handful of key milestones.
• 2026 Full NRC License
The design‑basis approval is only the first step. Oklo needs a full license by the end of 2026 to start construction on commercial sites. The process will involve extensive safety reviews and community consultations, but the early green‑lighting by the NRC provides a strong precedent.
• Expansion of the Product Line
Oklo is already exploring a larger‑scale 100 MWt reactor that could target the U.S. utility market directly. If this version can get regulatory clearance, the company’s revenue could double within the next two years.
• International Expansion
The company’s partnership with Tierra Power signals a broader strategy: SMRs as a platform for green hydrogen in Europe and Asia. A successful green‑hydrogen plant would showcase the versatility of Oklo’s reactors, attracting investment from sovereign wealth funds and national governments.
• Funding and Debt Management
The company is poised to issue a $200 million senior secured note in early 2026, which could finance the expansion of its production facility in Texas. If the funding comes through at a lower-than-market rate—thanks to the DOE’s guarantee—the resulting lower cost of capital could be a tailwind for the stock.
4. Risks: The Dark Side of Nuclear Promises
No investment is without risk, and Oklo’s journey is no exception. Key concerns highlighted by the article include:
| Risk | Impact |
|---|---|
| Regulatory uncertainty | Delays in NRC approvals could stall construction and increase costs. |
| Technology adoption lag | Utilities may be cautious about adopting SMRs until proven at scale. |
| Capital intensity | Building even a single SMR unit costs upwards of $200 million. |
| Public perception | Nuclear remains controversial; a single incident could wipe out investor confidence. |
These risks are not unique to Oklo, but they shape the timeline of returns. Investors should be mindful that the 400 % rally could be followed by a correction if the regulatory timeline stalls.
5. Bottom Line: Is Oklo a Buy Now?
The Motley Fool’s recommendation is a “buy” with a target price of $70–$80 over the next 12 months—roughly a 45 % upside from today’s level. The analysts cite the company’s strong safety record, early licensing milestones, and strategic partnerships as key drivers.
However, they also emphasize that the nuclear‑energy sector is a long‑term play. The first commercial SMR is not expected to come online until 2029, meaning most of the upside will materialize in the 2028–2030 window. Short‑term traders, on the other hand, may see a more modest run‑up, while risk‑averse investors may shy away from a company that is still proving its technology at scale.
TL;DR – Oklo’s near‑400 % rise was fueled by an NRC licensing win, new orders from a U.S. utility and a U.K. hydrogen producer, and solid early financials. The company still has room to grow—if it secures a full NRC license by the end of 2026, expands into larger reactors, and captures a share of the growing green‑hydrogen market. Yet, the path to commercial deployment is fraught with regulatory, technological, and capital‑intensity hurdles that could temper the stock’s ascent.
For investors willing to ride the long haul of nuclear innovation, Oklo offers a tantalizing entry point. For those who prefer quicker, less regulated wins, a pause might be in order. Either way, the company’s 400 % rally underscores a broader shift: the nuclear renaissance is no longer a pipe dream—it’s a real‑time, high‑stakes play on the energy transition.
Read the Full The Motley Fool Article at:
[ https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/12/10/up-nearly-400-this-year-can-oklo-stock-still-rise/ ]
