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Oscar Health Stock: Buying Opportunity Before Next Earnings Beat?

  //stocks-investing.news-articles.net/content/202 .. uying-opportunity-before-next-earnings-beat.html
  Published in Stocks and Investing on Wednesday, December 10th 2025 at 6:46 GMT by The Motley Fool

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Oscar Health Stock: A Buying Opportunity Before the Next Earnings Beat?
(Summarized from The Motley Fool’s 10‑Dec‑2025 analysis)

In a season of volatility for U.S. health‑insurance stocks, the Motley Fool’s latest review of Oscar Health (OSCR) argues that the company is now primed for a rebound that could unlock upside for investors. The piece, posted on December 10, 2025, breaks down the fundamentals, recent performance, and catalysts that the author believes make OSCR a compelling “buy” at its current price.

1. The Big Picture: Oscar’s Business Model

Oscar Health distinguishes itself by blending technology with a consumer‑centric approach to health‑insurance. While it operates on a smaller scale than industry giants like UnitedHealth Group or CVS Health, Oscar’s platform is built for digital engagement—think easy enrollment, telemedicine, and a data‑driven customer experience. The company’s revenue stream is primarily derived from premium income, but its competitive moat comes from low‑cost technology and efficient member acquisition.

The article highlights that Oscar’s cost‑structure advantage stems from its “low‑overhead, high‑automation” model. Rather than relying on large provider networks, Oscar leverages a partnership approach that keeps operating expenses down. That, combined with a focus on behavioral health and preventive care, allows the firm to maintain a healthier margin trajectory than many of its peers.

2. Recent Performance: Bottom‑Line Insights

Oscar’s stock has been a bit of a roller coaster in 2025, with the share price hovering between $8 and $12 over the past three months. The Motley Fool piece explains that the company posted a quarterly loss of $23 million in the latest quarter—a 5% improvement over the same period in 2024. Premium revenue rose 12% YoY, reflecting successful expansion into the Mid‑Atlantic and West Coast markets.

Key takeaways from the financial snapshot:

• Premium Growth: 12% YoY, with a 5% CAGR over the past 18 months.
• Operating Margin: Still negative but improving, from −14.7% to −12.3% in the latest quarter.
• Cash Position: Cash on hand $120 million; burn rate approximately $30 million per quarter—still sustainable for another 4–5 quarters without external financing.
• Customer Base: 210,000 members as of Q4 2025—up 18% from the same period in 2024.

The author stresses that while losses are a reality, the trend of decreasing loss per member is a sign that the business is moving toward profitability.

3. The “Buy” Thesis: Why the Stock is Undervalued

The core argument of the article revolves around the notion that Oscar’s current valuation is “far behind its long‑term growth potential.” Several pillars underpin this thesis:

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation
   Using a conservative 6% discount rate, the DCF model values Oscar at roughly $15 per share—well above its December 2025 market price of $9. The author notes that even with a 50% upside from the current price, Oscar would still be trading at a 20% discount to its intrinsic value.

2. Margin Expansion
   The analyst projects that, if Oscar’s operating costs continue to decrease at a 10% annual pace, the company could achieve an operating margin of 3% by 2028—bringing it in line with mid‑tier insurers.

3. Market Share Gains
   With the federal government’s push to expand health‑insurance coverage, Oscar is positioned to capture a sizable portion of the emerging “core‑plus” market that values tech‑savvy plans. The article cites a potential 5% increase in membership if Oscar can successfully cross‑sell to its current corporate clients.

4. Catalysts
   The upcoming Q1 2026 earnings release is highlighted as a potential catalyst. Should the company demonstrate continued premium growth and a reduction in loss per member, the stock could see a significant upside. The piece also notes an impending partnership announcement with a major employer that would bring in 50,000 new members.

5. Comparative Valuation
   When compared to similar tech‑focused insurers (e.g., Cigna, UnitedHealthcare), Oscar trades at a significantly lower P/E ratio, indicating market undervaluation.

4. Risks That Could Damp the Upside

Every “buy” recommendation comes with caveats, and the Motley Fool article does not shy away from discussing potential headwinds:

• Competitive Pressure: The health‑insurance landscape is crowded. Larger incumbents are increasingly investing in digital tools, eroding Oscar’s moat.
• Regulatory Risk: Changes in the Affordable Care Act or Medicaid policy could alter revenue streams, especially if premium subsidies are reduced.
• Liquidity Concerns: While the current cash runway is adequate, any unexpected macro‑economic shock could necessitate a capital raise, potentially diluting existing shareholders.
• Technology Adoption: Oscar’s success hinges on its ability to attract and retain members through its app and digital services. A lapse in user experience could hurt growth.

The article concludes that while the risks are non‑trivial, they are manageable with a disciplined investment horizon of at least three to five years.

5. Bottom Line: A “Buy” Rating

The Motley Fool piece ends with a clear recommendation: Buy Oscar Health, but buy early. The author suggests that investors who purchase shares now could capture significant upside if the company meets its projected milestones. The target price, set at $15, implies a 67% upside from the current level.

The article also encourages readers to keep an eye on two key developments:

1. Quarterly earnings (especially loss per member and premium growth).
2. Strategic partnerships (which could accelerate member acquisition).

For anyone intrigued by the intersection of health care and technology—and willing to ride out the short‑term volatility—Oscar Health appears, according to the Motley Fool’s December 2025 analysis, to be an attractive addition to a diversified investment portfolio.