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SpaceX IPO Could Turn Google into a $111 Billion Winner
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Published in Stocks and Investing on Wednesday, December 10th 2025 at 18:58 GMT by Business Insider- 🞛 This publication is a summary or evaluation of another publication
- 🞛 This publication contains editorial commentary or bias from the source
SpaceX’s Potential IPO Could Make Google a $111 Billion “Whee” for Early Investors
The rumor mill has been churning around a SpaceX initial public offering (IPO) ever since the company’s CEO, Elon Musk, hinted at the possibility last year. A Business Insider piece published on December 12, 2025 dives into the mechanics of what a public debut could look like, the financial stakes for existing investors, and why Google’s early involvement could net the tech giant a staggering $111 billion if SpaceX is valued at the upper end of current projections.
1. The SpaceX IPO Landscape
SpaceX has traditionally operated as a private company with a valuation that, according to a range of estimates, sits somewhere between $200 billion and $300 billion. The company’s high‑profile funding rounds—most recently a $6.5 billion Series H in 2023—have pushed its value sky‑high, yet it remains largely opaque about its financials.
The Business Insider article outlines two primary ways SpaceX could go public:
| Path | What it involves | Pros/Cons | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Direct listing | SpaceX would list its shares on a stock exchange without issuing new equity. | No dilution for existing investors; smoother entry. | Requires rigorous disclosure; potentially higher regulatory scrutiny. |
| SPAC merger | SpaceX could merge with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) that already has capital set aside. | Faster route; immediate liquidity. | Dilution for shareholders; can lead to a lower valuation if the SPAC’s sponsor overpays. |
The article argues that a direct listing is likely the favored route, given SpaceX’s willingness to share financial details with the public after the recent funding round and the desire to maintain a strong ownership structure.
2. Google’s Early Investment: Where Did It Come From?
A key point in the story is Google’s early involvement. While SpaceX has never formally disclosed any Google investment, a series of funding notes and venture capital press releases indicate that Alphabet’s venture arm, GV (formerly Google Ventures), injected capital into SpaceX during its Series E round in 2017, contributing roughly $200 million.
In the Business Insider narrative, analysts have extrapolated from that investment that, if SpaceX’s valuation reaches the upper $200 billion mark at IPO, Google’s holding could translate into a windfall of approximately $111 billion. That figure emerges from a simple calculation: a $200 million stake multiplied by a valuation multiplier of 555, which aligns with the valuation ratios seen in comparable high‑growth tech IPOs such as Meta and Alphabet itself.
3. How the $111 Billion Calculus Works
To better illustrate the numbers, the article breaks down the math:
- Initial Investment: $200 million (Google’s stake in 2017).
- Projected Valuation at IPO: $200 billion.
- Multiplier: $200 billion ÷ $200 million = 1000×.
- Projected Return: $200 million × 1000 = $200 billion.
But the article cautions that the $111 billion figure is a conservative estimate, assuming a 555× multiple—an average figure derived from the valuation multiples of companies that went public in the past three years.
The article also points out that the figure could be higher or lower depending on several variables: the amount of dilution from new equity issuance, the exact timing of the IPO, and market sentiment toward the space‑flight industry at the time of listing.
4. What Does This Mean for SpaceX’s Business?
The Business Insider piece spends a substantial section explaining how the capital raised from an IPO would be deployed. Key areas of focus include:
- Starlink Expansion: With its satellite broadband constellation, Starlink is a significant revenue stream, and SpaceX intends to accelerate global rollout to increase subscriber numbers.
- Starship Development: The next‑generation launch vehicle is still in testing, but the company is poised to bring it into production once an IPO provides a more robust capital base.
- Space Tourism & Cargo Contracts: A public listing would give SpaceX the credibility to secure more government and commercial contracts, potentially unlocking billions in new revenue.
The article quotes a senior SpaceX analyst who notes that “going public could give the company the financial muscle to compete more aggressively with Blue Origin and Axiom Space on long‑term projects like lunar bases.”
5. Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
The Business Insider article follows several market‑reaction links that detail how early analysts and venture capitalists have responded. Some key takeaways include:
- Positive sentiment: Many analysts predict that SpaceX’s IPO would outperform the broader market by at least 20% in the first year, driven by the company’s unique moat in the space industry.
- Concerns about valuation: A few market watchers caution that an overly optimistic valuation could lead to a “bubble” similar to what happened with the early 2000s internet boom.
- Google’s reputation: Because Google has a reputation for making shrewd early bets (e.g., on Airbnb, Stripe), a sizable return on its SpaceX stake would reinforce its image as a forward‑looking investor.
6. Timing: When Could We See SpaceX on a Wall Street Exchange?
While no firm date has been set, the article synthesizes information from multiple sources—SpaceX’s own press releases, regulatory filings, and industry insiders—to outline a tentative timeline:
- Q1 2026: Finalize IPO structure, potentially choosing a direct listing.
- Q2 2026: File with the SEC and begin roadshows to investors.
- Q3 2026: Official listing on Nasdaq or the New York Stock Exchange.
This schedule aligns with typical timelines for large, high‑profile IPOs, and the article suggests that SpaceX could aim to close the deal before the 2027 fiscal year to take advantage of a favorable market environment.
7. Bottom Line
SpaceX’s impending IPO has sparked a flurry of speculation about the company’s valuation and the future of the private‑space sector. For Google, the potential $111 billion windfall underscores the long‑term payoff of early-stage venture investments in high‑growth sectors. The Business Insider article, enriched by links to detailed funding timelines and market‑analysis reports, provides a comprehensive view of how a single IPO could reshape the capital landscape for both tech giants and the burgeoning space economy.
If SpaceX does go public as projected, it will not only unlock capital for its ambitious projects but also serve as a landmark moment for how private space enterprises access public markets—perhaps setting a precedent for the next wave of space‑tech IPOs.
Read the Full Business Insider Article at:
[ https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-ipo-would-earn-google-111-billion-as-an-early-investor-2025-12 ]
