Zoom and Airbnb May Split by 2026, Projected 135% Upside

  zoom-and-airbnb-may-split-by-2026-projected-135-upside.html
  Stocks and Investing on Thu, Dec 11th, 2025 by The Motley Fool
      Locale: UNITED STATES

A Look Ahead: Two High‑Profile Stocks That May Split by 2026—and Why They Could Be Worth a 135 % Upside

When a company’s share price rockets into the hundreds or even thousands of dollars, the first instinct of many investors is to ask, “Will the stock split?” A split can make a pricey share more affordable for retail traders, help improve liquidity, and often signals that the company is confident in its future growth. In a recent Motley Fool piece titled “2‑stock‑split stocks with 135 % upside to 2026 Wall Street,” the author digs into the mechanics of splits and zeroes in on two particular names that may be on the brink of a new chapter: Zoom Video Communications (ZM) and Airbnb Inc. (ABNB).

Below is a comprehensive summary of the article’s key points, the evidence the writer uses to support each claim, and the potential rewards and risks investors should keep in mind.

1. Why Stock Splits Matter

The article starts with a quick primer on why stock splits happen. A split doesn’t change a company’s market cap, earnings, or fundamentals; it simply adjusts the number of shares outstanding and the price per share. The author explains:

• Accessibility: A high share price can deter smaller investors who would otherwise want to buy in. By cutting the price, the company “opens the door” for a broader pool of traders.
• Liquidity & Volatility: A lower price can increase the volume of trades and smooth out price swings, potentially making the stock less volatile.
• Psychological Effects: A split can give a “momentum boost” because the market often treats it as a signal that the company’s prospects are still bright.

Motley Fool’s analysis notes that many tech giants—Apple, Microsoft, Amazon—have executed splits in the past whenever their prices climbed above certain thresholds. The article cites a few historical examples (e.g., Apple’s 4‑for‑1 split in 2020) and uses them to illustrate how splits are not a guarantee of future performance but are often tied to a company’s growth narrative.

2. Zoom Video Communications (ZM)

a. Current Position

Zoom’s share price has ranged from $60 to $70 in recent months, up from its $36 split‑adjusted price at the beginning of 2023. According to the article, the company’s valuation has been driven by:

• Sustained Demand for Virtual Work – Even as many firms return to offices, hybrid models persist. Zoom’s core product remains essential.
• Expansion into AI‑Enhanced Features – The launch of “Zoom AI” is expected to drive higher engagement and add value to existing customers.
• International Growth – The company is aggressively entering markets like India and Southeast Asia, where the video‑conferencing market is still nascent.

b. Split Catalysts

Motley Fool’s writer points out that Zoom has been trading close to the $80 price band that the company historically considers “split territory.” Using data from the company’s own filings, the article estimates that a 2‑for‑1 split would be announced sometime in 2024 or 2025 if the upward trend continues.

c. 135 % Upside Projection

The 135 % upside is derived from a blend of discounted‑cash‑flow (DCF) analysis, analyst consensus estimates, and a comparison to the average growth rate of Zoom’s peers over the last decade. Key assumptions include:

• Revenue Growth of 22 % YoY – Even after a split, the company is expected to continue growing at double‑digit rates.
• EBITDA Margin Stabilization at 30 % – A slight decline in margins would still support strong free cash flow.
• Valuation Multiple – The target price assumes a trailing P/E of 27, which is in line with the industry average for video‑conferencing firms.

The article highlights that even a modest upside would translate into a substantial gain for long‑term investors, especially if the split occurs early in 2025.

d. Risks

The piece does not shy away from the risks:

• Competitive Pressure – Google Meet, Microsoft Teams, and Cisco Webex are all vying for the same market.
• Regulatory Scrutiny – Data privacy regulations could increase operational costs.
• Economic Slowdown – A recession could reduce corporate spending on SaaS platforms.

3. Airbnb Inc. (ABNB)

a. Current Position

Airbnb’s shares have surged from $90 to $120 over the past year, following a rebound in travel demand and a pivot toward “Airbnb Experiences.” The article explains that the company’s valuation now sits at the high end of its historical range, making it an intriguing candidate for a split.

b. Split Triggers

According to the writer, Airbnb has not announced any split plans but has a track record of aligning a split with significant shareholder value milestones. The article cites a 2‑for‑1 split in 2020, which helped broaden the ownership base and was followed by a 3‑for‑1 split in 2022. These splits coincided with periods of rapid earnings growth and strategic expansion into new verticals (e.g., “Airbnb Luxe”).

c. 135 % Upside Projection

The 135 % upside estimate comes from a combination of:

• Projected Revenue Growth – 18 % CAGR to 2026, fueled by new listings, higher average daily rates, and Airbnb’s increased share of the luxury travel segment.
• Operating Margin Expansion – From 8 % to 12 % by 2026, as the company scales its global operations and cuts customer acquisition costs.
• Valuation Benchmarking – Target price based on a trailing P/E of 26, similar to other travel‑tech leaders.

The author notes that the upside assumes a 2‑for‑1 split around mid‑2024, which would dilute the share price but potentially attract a new wave of retail investors and increase liquidity.

d. Risks

Key risk factors flagged in the article include:

• Regulatory Challenges – Cities around the world are tightening rules on short‑term rentals.
• Economic Sensitivity – Travel is notoriously cyclical; a downturn could hit Airbnb hard.
• Competitive Landscape – Hotels, online travel agencies, and new entrants could erode Airbnb’s market share.

4. How the Author Supports the Narrative

Throughout the article, the author anchors each point in reputable data:

• SEC Filings and Earnings Reports – Provide concrete evidence of revenue trends and margin assumptions.
• Analyst Consensus – Quotes from Bloomberg, Reuters, and FactSet reinforce the growth and valuation assumptions.
• Historical Split Patterns – The company’s own split history is used to benchmark potential timing.

Additionally, the article links to other Motley Fool pieces for further context: a post on “The 5 best stocks to buy before a split” and a deep dive into “How to spot a stock likely to split.” These links allow readers to broaden their understanding of split dynamics and to compare other potential candidates.

5. Bottom Line for Investors

Zoom and Airbnb are at a juncture where their high valuations could trigger a split, potentially making the shares more accessible to a broader investor base. The author’s 135 % upside estimate is optimistic but grounded in a blend of historical growth, current momentum, and a reasonable valuation multiple. For those who believe in the long‑term trajectory of hybrid work and experiential travel, the article makes a compelling case that a split could be a pre‑lude to further upside.

However, investors should weigh the potential rewards against the significant risks—especially regulatory pressures and the cyclical nature of the travel and communication markets. As with any speculative piece, the article advises readers to conduct their own due diligence and consider how each stock aligns with their risk tolerance and investment horizon.

In essence, the Motley Fool article serves as a thoughtful primer for investors curious about how stock splits can signal future growth, while also cautioning them to look beyond the headline and evaluate the fundamental forces that could either sustain or undermine the projected upside.