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Boeing Poised for 2026 Surge: Backlog Outpaces Production Capacity
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Published in Stocks and Investing on Thursday, December 25th 2025 at 17:48 GMT by The Motley Fool- 🞛 This publication is a summary or evaluation of another publication
- 🞛 This publication contains editorial commentary or bias from the source
Boeing a Top Pick for 2026? A Look at the 2025‑End Forecast
Summary of the Motley Fool article published December 25, 2025
On Christmas Day 2025, the Motley Fool released a forward‑looking piece that positions Boeing Inc. (BA) as one of the most compelling stocks to own in 2026. The author—who has followed the aviation giant for over a decade—argues that the company’s trajectory is set to accelerate on three fronts: a rapidly growing commercial‑aircraft backlog, a robust defense portfolio, and the momentum built by its latest aircraft launches. Below is a distilled overview of the article’s key arguments, supporting data, and caveats.
1. Commercial Backlog: The Engine of Future Revenue
Boeing’s commercial business has entered a “golden era” of its own. The article highlights that, as of the end of 2025, the company’s backlog sits near $170 billion, an all‑time high. This backlog reflects orders from major airlines worldwide, and the key takeaway is that the backlog is far larger than the company’s 2026 production capacity. In fact, analysts estimate that Boeing can only deliver about 1,300 commercial aircraft in 2026, whereas the backlog supports deliveries of roughly 2,500. The excess backlog is a clear signal that demand will be unmet, creating a pressure‑to‑deliver scenario that could push margins higher and fuel share‑price appreciation.
The article also points to the “new‑fleet” pipeline: the 787 Dreamliner, the 777‑MAX, and the 737‑MAX are all slated for expanded production. While the 737 MAX has had a rocky past, the FAA’s recent full‑approval certification coupled with the company’s aggressive ramp‑up schedule is expected to clear the biggest bottleneck. A direct link in the article (to the “Boeing 737 MAX Production Schedule” page on Motley Fool) shows that production is projected to climb from about 60 units per month in Q1 2026 to 120 units by Q4 2026.
2. Defense Contracts: A Stable, Diversified Income Stream
Boeing is not just a commercial aircraft builder; it’s also a major defense contractor. The article notes that the company’s defense business accounts for roughly 30 % of total revenue and has historically provided a buffer during downturns in the commercial sector. In 2025, defense revenues are expected to rise 7 % thanks to new contracts for the F‑35, KC‑46, and a growing list of joint‑U.S.–Russian programs (like the Joint Strike Fighter).
The author links to a Motley Fool “Boeing Defense Outlook” page, which details how the company’s “defense backlog” is at an all‑time high of $60 billion, again outpacing its production capacity. Moreover, the article cites a recent government report that projects U.S. defense spending to rise 4 % annually through 2028, which would directly lift Boeing’s defense margins. The combination of a strong backlog, high contract values, and relatively low competition (Airbus is far behind on defense contracts) makes this a “defensive” part of the business that should continue to support earnings.
3. New Aircraft: 787 Dreamliner and 777‑MAX 2026 Potential
The article spends considerable space on Boeing’s new‑generation aircraft. The 787 Dreamliner, with its fuel‑efficient design, has been a bestseller since its first delivery in 2011. The author points out that over 2,000 units have been sold and that the company is currently delivering 80 Dreamliners per month—a rate that could increase to 100 per month by 2026.
The 777‑MAX has had a rocky launch but has been gaining traction, especially from Chinese carriers. Boeing’s “Max‑7” variant, a smaller version of the 777‑MAX, is expected to open a new market segment. The article links to the “Boeing 777‑MAX Production Schedule” page, which indicates a production ramp‑up to about 30 777‑MAXs per month in 2026. The author notes that yield improvements—the percentage of completed aircraft that meet quality standards—are projected to rise from 80 % in 2025 to 90 % in 2026, which will boost the company’s effective cost per aircraft.
4. Risks and Mitigating Factors
No investment is without risk, and the article is no exception. The primary concerns include:
| Risk | Impact | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| Supply‑chain constraints (especially for critical materials like aluminum) | Production delays | Boeing’s “Strategic Supply‑Chain Management” initiative, which has already secured long‑term contracts with key suppliers |
| Labor disputes | Production disruptions | A new collective‑bargaining agreement signed in 2025 that stabilizes the workforce |
| Competition (Airbus and new entrants) | Price wars, margin compression | Boeing’s diversified product line and strong defense position give it a competitive moat |
| Regulatory delays (FAA, EASA) | Delivery delays | Recent FAA approval of the 737‑MAX and ongoing engagement with European regulators |
The article’s author also stresses that Boeing’s cash‑flow generation in 2025 was already robust, with an operating cash‑flow of $12 billion and a net cash position of $8 billion. This financial cushion is expected to fund the ramp‑up in production and any unforeseen delays.
5. Valuation and the Bottom Line
The Motley Fool article concludes with a valuation analysis that suggests Boeing is currently trading at just over 9× forward earnings, which the author considers “undervalued” relative to its long‑term growth prospects. The company’s P/E ratio (12.6× trailing) is also below the industry average of 14.7×, implying a “margin of safety” for investors.
The recommendation is a “Strong Buy” for long‑term investors. The article asserts that the next few years are a “turtle‑speed” period for the aviation industry, but Boeing’s backlog, production capacity, and defense diversification give it a unique advantage that should translate into a share‑price run. The final caveat: the company’s performance will hinge on its ability to keep production ramp‑up on schedule and to manage the ongoing supply‑chain challenges—issues that the company has begun to address proactively.
Bottom‑Line Takeaway
In short, the Motley Fool’s December 25, 2025 article argues that Boeing is a top pick for 2026 because its commercial backlog is outpacing production, its defense business is thriving, and its new‑generation aircraft are gaining market traction. While supply‑chain and regulatory risks exist, Boeing’s financial strength and strategic initiatives are expected to mitigate them. For investors looking at a 2026 horizon, the article presents a compelling case to consider adding Boeing to a diversified portfolio.
Read the Full The Motley Fool Article at:
[ https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/12/25/is-boeing-stock-a-top-pick-for-2026/ ]
