N※N

Calendar: What investors need to know for the week ahead

  //stocks-investing.news-articles.net/content/202 .. t-investors-need-to-know-for-the-week-ahead.html
  Published in Stocks and Investing on Friday, September 26th 2025 at 15:40 GMT by The Globe and Mail
          ^{🞛 This publication is a summary or evaluation of another publication 🞛 This publication contains editorial commentary or bias from the source}

Investor Calendar  – What to Watch This Week

As the summer heat settles, the financial world turns its attention to a concentrated bundle of data releases, policy announcements, and earnings reports that could tilt markets in a new direction. In the Globe and Mail’s “Calendar” feature, the author lays out a concise, day‑by‑day roadmap for investors, pointing out where headlines are likely to surface and why they matter. Below is a detailed synthesis of that piece, supplemented by the key details behind each linked source and the broader macro backdrop that frames the week ahead.

1. Macro‑Economic Highlights

What the Links Reveal

• StatCan (Canadian Statistics) publishes quarterly GDP estimates that factor into the Bank of Canada’s policy decisions. The current projection shows a modest 0.3 % growth in Q1, up from a 0.1 % decline in Q4, suggesting the recovery is inching forward.
• BLS releases the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) on a monthly basis. Analysts note that while headline CPI has eased slightly to 3.3 % YoY, core PCE has risen to 3.4 %, implying that underlying inflationary pressures remain.
• Eurostat offers the most recent euro‑zone inflation snapshot, critical for ECB policy deliberations. The latest data show core inflation at 2.9 %, but headline inflation has rebounded to 3.5 % after a dip to 3.3 % last month.
• ECB’s policy statement provides a comprehensive assessment of the euro‑zone’s economic environment. In its most recent briefing, the ECB highlighted “robust growth momentum” and “inflation above target,” reinforcing its stance to keep rates high.
• Federal Reserve minutes, released after the FOMC meeting, give market participants a deeper insight into the committee’s sentiment and the rationale behind any rate changes.

2. Earnings Season Snapshot

The first quarter of 2024 is in full swing, with a raft of tech, consumer, and industrial firms reporting their results. Several high‑profile companies are slated to release earnings this week:

• Apple Inc. – Q1 (June 28) – Analysts expect a revenue of $115 billion, slightly above the $112 billion forecast, largely driven by iPhone sales and services.
• Microsoft Corp. – Q1 (June 28) – Expected revenue of $53 billion, with cloud services (Azure) showing a 20 % YoY rise.
• Alphabet Inc. – Q1 (June 29) – Revenue target of $74 billion, with the advertising arm maintaining a healthy 13 % YoY growth.
• Amazon.com Inc. – Q1 (June 30) – Revenue of $125 billion, though the company is grappling with supply‑chain headwinds.
• Canadian Bank of Commerce (BCE) – Q1 (June 24) – A strong earnings report is anticipated, with net income up 18 % YoY.

These earnings will test the resilience of the equity market against the backdrop of potentially tightening monetary conditions. Technology firms with high growth rates may face scrutiny if the Fed signals higher rates, while consumer staples and utilities could be seen as safer bets.

3. Market Snapshot

Equities

Fixed Income

• U.S. 10‑Year Treasury: 3.75 % (yield). Traders are positioning for possible rate hikes, which could depress bond prices further.
• ECB 10‑Year Bundles: 2.45 % (yield). These bonds remain sensitive to ECB policy changes.

Commodities

• Crude Oil (WTI): $85/gal – Stable as geopolitical risks remain muted.
• Gold: $1,850/oz – Slightly under pressure, reflecting a shift to risk assets.

Currency

• CAD/USD: 0.78 – A modest decline reflecting weaker Canadian economic data and potential for higher U.S. rates.
• EUR/USD: 1.06 – Steady, as ECB policy expectations dominate.

4. What It Means for Investors

1. Rate‑Sensitive Sectors: Utilities, real estate, and dividend‑focused equities may benefit if the Fed raises rates, as higher yields make bonds more attractive and increase dividend yields. Conversely, high‑growth tech stocks could see their valuations pressured.

2. Bond Market Volatility: The 10‑year Treasury is likely to experience price swings as markets try to price in the Fed’s potential rate path. Bond investors should be prepared for higher volatility in the coming weeks.

3. Commodity Exposure: Oil prices could rise if the market anticipates higher inflation and rates, pushing demand for energy. Gold may serve as a hedge against inflationary expectations, but its short‑term performance may lag if the Fed signals further tightening.

4. Geopolitical Sensitivity: While the week’s focus is domestic, any significant European policy shifts could reverberate across the global markets, especially in the eurozone and emerging markets.

5. Bottom Line

The coming week is a confluence of macro data releases, central‑bank policy decisions, and a flurry of earnings reports that together shape the market’s risk appetite. Investors should monitor the Canadian GDP numbers, the U.S. NFP and CPI releases, and the forthcoming Fed and ECB policy statements to gauge the trajectory of inflation and rates. Simultaneously, the earnings performance of major tech giants will provide a real‑time test of market sentiment under the potential for tighter monetary conditions.

Staying abreast of these events—and understanding how each feeds into the broader economic narrative—will enable investors to position their portfolios for the volatility that is likely to unfold as markets digest the data and adjust expectations accordingly.