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Tracking Invest 94-L: Maps, path, spaghetti models

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  Published in Stocks and Investing on Wednesday, September 24th 2025 at 9:09 GMT by WESH
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Tropical Disturbance 94L Eyes Florida: What the “Spaghetti Models” Tell Us

In the weeks before the hurricane season kicks off, Florida’s coast is once again under the watchful eye of meteorologists. A tropical disturbance, designated 94L by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), has been moving through the western Caribbean Sea and has drawn a great deal of attention from both local forecasters and the wider public. The WESH 2 newsroom has been following the storm’s progress closely, and its latest feature—titled “Invest 94L Path Spaghetti Models Florida”—offers an in‑depth look at the uncertainty that surrounds 94L’s eventual track and strength.

1. What is 94L?

The designation “94L” follows a naming convention used by the NHC to identify tropical disturbances that are not yet organized enough to be called tropical depressions or storms. The “94” indicates that this is the 94th disturbance being tracked in the Atlantic Basin during the season, and the “L” tells forecasters that the system’s location is uncertain (the “L” comes from the Latin word for “left” and signals that the storm’s track is expected to veer to the left, or northward, from its current heading). At the time of the article, 94L was situated roughly 200 miles southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula, moving slowly west‑southwest.

2. The “Spaghetti Models”

Forecasters use a technique called “ensemble forecasting” to understand the range of possible future states of a storm. Instead of producing a single deterministic track, the NHC runs dozens—sometimes hundreds—of slightly different weather models. The resulting set of tracks resembles a tangled web of spaghetti, hence the nickname “spaghetti plot.” Each strand in the plot represents a different forecast from a particular model or a different run of the same model.

The WESH article highlights that the spaghetti models for 94L have not yet converged. Some strands head toward the Gulf of Mexico, while others veer toward the Caribbean. A few even suggest a landfall in the Florida Panhandle or the southeastern coast. The uncertainty in the models is mainly driven by two factors:

1. Steering Flow – The large‑scale wind patterns that push the disturbance along its path are still weak and uneven, which means the models differ in how they project the future wind field.
2. Organization of 94L – The disturbance is currently an open‑cell thunderstorm cluster. Whether it will develop a closed circulation (i.e., become a tropical depression) remains in question, and that decision significantly alters the forecast track and intensity.

3. What the Models Predict

While the tracks vary, there are some common threads across the ensemble. Most models show 94L gradually intensifying into a tropical depression over the next few days. If the system strengthens, the models predict wind speeds of 35–45 mph by the time it reaches the Gulf of Mexico or the Florida coast. The probability of tropical‑storm‑force winds (35 mph or higher) in the Panhandle region is estimated at roughly 40–50 % in the models that favor a northward trajectory.

Rainfall estimates also vary. Models that send the storm toward the Gulf of Mexico project heavy showers in the western Florida Keys, with the potential for localized flooding. Those steering the system toward the eastern Florida coast predict more widespread, but less intense, rainfall—though the sheer size of the disturbance could still produce heavy rains and even inland flooding.

4. Links to Key Resources

The WESH piece pulls from several official sources that help readers understand the numbers behind the story. The article contains direct links to:

• The National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Weather Outlook – This page provides the NHC’s official statements, including the latest forecast discussion and the status of 94L (open, forming, or dissipating). It also contains the graphic that shows the “spaghetti” ensemble tracks, which is what most readers see in the article’s inset photo.
• NOAA’s Ensemble Forecast Product – For readers who want to dig deeper, the link leads to a PDF containing the full set of model runs. Meteorologists and enthusiasts can use this to compare the different outputs side‑by‑side.
• Florida’s Office of Emergency Management (FEMA) – A link to the state agency’s page gives residents a sense of the official preparedness guidelines, evacuation orders (if any), and resources for storm shelter.

The article notes that the ensemble results are updated every 6 hours, and the NHC’s next discussion will likely refine the probabilities once more data comes in from satellite and reconnaissance flights.

5. The Take‑away for Florida Residents

While the article is a data‑heavy rundown of the models, it also translates that information into plain‑language guidance for the public. The key points are:

• Stay Informed – Residents should keep an eye on the NHC’s forecasts and local news. The situation can change quickly, especially if 94L starts to organize.
• Prepare for Rain – Even if the storm does not hit the coast, the widespread rainfall could cause flooding in low‑lying areas. Check local water levels and be ready to evacuate if advised.
• No Immediate Threat of Storm‑Force Winds – Current models suggest that, if 94L does land, the winds are likely to be below tropical‑storm strength. However, gusts could exceed 40 mph in certain spots, so take precautions.

6. Final Thoughts

The “Invest 94L Path Spaghetti Models Florida” article does a commendable job of unpacking a complex meteorological issue for a broad audience. By breaking down the ensemble forecasts and offering clear guidance, the piece helps Florida residents understand both the science behind the threat and the practical steps they should take. As the storm’s story unfolds, the WESH newsroom promises to keep the public updated, reminding everyone that the biggest weapon against tropical weather is knowledge and preparedness.