Fridaysanalystupgradesanddowngrades

Published in Stocks and Investing on Friday, August 15th 2025 at 7:49 GMT by The Globe and Mail
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Inside the Market's roundup of some of today's key analyst actions

Friday’s Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades

In the latest round of equity analyst actions, several key upgrades and downgrades have been issued across various sectors, reflecting shifting market sentiments amid economic uncertainties, commodity price fluctuations, and corporate earnings reports. Analysts from major firms including RBC Capital Markets, TD Securities, BMO Capital Markets, and others have adjusted their ratings and price targets on a range of Canadian and international stocks. These changes provide insights into potential investment opportunities and risks, with a particular focus on energy, financials, technology, and consumer goods sectors. Below is a detailed overview of the most notable moves.

Starting with the energy sector, which has seen significant volatility due to global oil supply dynamics and geopolitical tensions, several upgrades highlight optimism. RBC Capital Markets analyst Greg Pardy upgraded Suncor Energy Inc. (SU-T) from "sector perform" to "outperform," citing improved operational efficiencies and a stronger balance sheet following recent debt reductions. Pardy raised his price target to $55 from $48, emphasizing Suncor's integrated model that provides resilience against oil price swings. He noted that the company's free cash flow generation could support higher dividends and share buybacks, making it an attractive pick in a potentially rebounding energy market.

Similarly, TD Securities analyst Meny Grauman upgraded Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE-T) to "buy" from "hold," with a new price target of $32, up from $28. Grauman pointed to Cenovus's successful integration of assets from its Husky Energy acquisition, which has enhanced production capacity and cost synergies. He argued that the stock is undervalued relative to peers, especially with West Texas Intermediate crude prices hovering above $80 per barrel, potentially driving earnings growth in the coming quarters.

On the downgrade side in energy, BMO Capital Markets analyst Randy Ollenberger lowered his rating on Imperial Oil Ltd. (IMO-T) to "market perform" from "outperform," trimming the price target to $90 from $95. Ollenberger expressed concerns over rising operational costs and regulatory pressures in Alberta's oil sands, which could squeeze margins despite strong commodity prices. He suggested that while Imperial's refining segment remains a bright spot, overall execution risks warrant caution.

Shifting to the financial sector, where interest rate hikes and inflation are key themes, National Bank Financial analyst Gabriel Dechaine upgraded Royal Bank of Canada (RY-T) to "outperform" from "sector perform," increasing the price target to $150 from $140. Dechaine highlighted RBC's robust capital position and diversified revenue streams, including wealth management and capital markets, which position it well to navigate economic headwinds. He forecasted that net interest margins could expand further with additional rate increases from the Bank of Canada, supporting earnings per share growth above industry averages.

Conversely, CIBC World Markets analyst Paul Holden downgraded Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD-T) to "neutral" from "outperformer," with a revised price target of $95, down from $105. Holden cited potential headwinds from TD's U.S. retail banking exposure, including higher loan loss provisions amid slowing consumer spending. He also noted competitive pressures in the Canadian market, which might limit fee income growth, advising investors to monitor upcoming quarterly results for signs of resilience.

In technology and telecommunications, Scotia Capital analyst Maher Yaghi upgraded BCE Inc. (BCE-T) to "sector outperform" from "sector perform," lifting the price target to $65 from $60. Yaghi praised BCE's fiber optic investments and 5G rollout, which are expected to drive subscriber growth and higher average revenue per user. He believes the company's defensive dividend yield of over 5% makes it a safe haven amid market volatility, particularly as remote work trends persist.

However, Canaccord Genuity analyst Aravinda Galappatthige downgraded Rogers Communications Inc. (RCI.B-T) to "hold" from "buy," reducing the price target to $55 from $62. Galappatthige pointed to integration challenges following the Shaw Communications merger, including regulatory scrutiny and potential customer churn. He warned that while the deal could eventually yield synergies, short-term execution risks and elevated debt levels pose downside.

The consumer discretionary and staples sectors also saw notable actions. Desjardins Securities analyst Chris Li upgraded Loblaw Companies Ltd. (L-T) to "buy" from "hold," with a new price target of $130, up from $115. Li commended Loblaw's strong same-store sales growth driven by its discount banners and e-commerce expansion, which have helped it capture market share in a inflationary environment. He anticipates continued margin improvements from supply chain optimizations.

On the flip side, ATB Capital Markets analyst Kenric Tyghe downgraded Canadian Tire Corp. Ltd. (CTC.A-T) to "sector perform" from "outperform," cutting the price target to $160 from $180. Tyghe expressed worries about softening consumer demand for discretionary items like automotive and sporting goods, exacerbated by high household debt levels in Canada. He suggested that while the company's loyalty program provides some buffer, economic slowdowns could pressure top-line growth.

In mining and materials, Goldman Sachs analyst Alexander Hacking upgraded Teck Resources Ltd. (TECK.B-T) to "buy" from "neutral," raising the price target to $60 from $50. Hacking cited surging copper prices amid global electrification trends and supply constraints, positioning Teck's diversified portfolio favorably. He highlighted the company's Elk Valley coal operations as a cash flow engine, supporting investments in green metals.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley analyst Carlos De Alba downgraded Nutrien Ltd. (NTR-T) to "equal weight" from "overweight," with a price target adjustment to $80 from $90. De Alba noted fertilizer market headwinds from normalized supply chains post-Ukraine disruptions and potential demand weakness in key agricultural regions.

Other notable mentions include an upgrade for Shopify Inc. (SHOP-T) by Piper Sandler to "overweight" from "neutral," with a $1,000 price target, driven by e-commerce recovery expectations. In contrast, Air Canada (AC-T) was downgraded by Cowen to "market perform" due to fuel cost pressures and travel demand uncertainties.

These analyst actions underscore a mixed outlook, with upgrades often tied to commodity strength and defensive plays, while downgrades reflect macroeconomic risks. Investors are advised to consider these alongside broader market trends, such as central bank policies and geopolitical developments, when making decisions. As always, individual stock performance can vary based on company-specific factors and overall economic conditions. This roundup captures the pulse of analyst sentiment heading into the weekend, providing a snapshot of where opportunities and cautions lie in the current landscape. (Word count: 928)

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