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Russia's Military Struggles to Replenish Losses in Ukraine

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  Published in Stocks and Investing on Friday, February 20th 2026 at 5:19 GMT by BBC
      Locales: UKRAINE, RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Kyiv, Ukraine - February 20, 2026 - As the conflict in Ukraine enters its third year, a new assessment from the UK's Ministry of Defence (MoD) paints a grim picture of Russia's military capabilities. The report, released today, highlights Russia's growing struggle to replenish both personnel and equipment losses, a situation that is significantly hampering its ability to sustain current operations and prepare for future offensives. While limited territorial gains have been reported in recent days - primarily around the fiercely contested cities of Avdiivka and Kupiansk in the Donetsk region - these advances have come at a "significant cost," according to the MoD.

For months, Avdiivka has been a focal point of intense fighting, with Russian forces relentlessly attempting to capture the city. Kupiansk has similarly witnessed heavy clashes, representing a critical node in the eastern front. Both sides are locked in a brutal war of attrition, with reports of substantial casualties emanating from both the Ukrainian and Russian sides. Independent verification remains difficult due to the ongoing combat, leading to conflicting narratives regarding tactical gains and losses.

Ukraine, however, appears to be weathering the storm more effectively, bolstered by a consistent and crucial stream of military aid from Western nations. This support includes not only vital ammunition and supplies but also increasingly sophisticated weaponry, allowing Ukrainian forces to effectively target Russian positions and disrupt logistical lines. The impact of these Western-supplied systems has become increasingly apparent, contributing to the rising costs Russia is incurring in its attempts to advance.

The Root of Russia's Difficulties

The MoD report identifies three key factors contributing to Russia's inability to adequately replace its losses. First, domestic production within Russia's defence industry is demonstrably insufficient to meet the demands of the ongoing conflict. Years of underinvestment, coupled with the strain of continuous combat, have crippled its capacity to manufacture enough equipment to offset battlefield attrition. While Russia has attempted to ramp up production, it continues to fall short of the required levels.

Second, international sanctions imposed in response to the invasion of Ukraine have severely restricted Russia's access to crucial components and technologies from abroad. These sanctions target not only finished military products but also the raw materials and specialized parts necessary for manufacturing. Circumventing these restrictions has proven difficult and costly, further exacerbating the supply chain issues within the Russian defence sector. The initial expectation of easily substituting Western components with alternatives from countries like China has not fully materialized, particularly for high-tech components.

Finally, Russia is facing significant challenges in recruiting and retaining soldiers. Despite attempts to mobilize additional troops - including conscription and recruitment drives - the Russian military continues to struggle to fill its ranks. This is partly due to widespread disillusionment within the population, coupled with reports of poor training, inadequate equipment, and high casualty rates. The use of Wagner Group mercenaries, while initially providing a temporary boost, ultimately proved unsustainable and exposed the underlying recruitment problems. Reports suggest that even prison recruitment is yielding diminishing returns.

Implications for the Future

The combined effect of these factors is deeply concerning. The MoD assessment concludes that Russia's inability to replenish its losses is "undermining its ability to prepare for future operations." This suggests that Russia may be forced to significantly scale back its ambitions in Ukraine, potentially abandoning attempts to capture key cities or even conceding territory. Alternatively, the Kremlin may be unable to sustain the current intensity of fighting indefinitely, leading to a gradual weakening of its military presence.

Analysts are now debating whether Russia will adopt a more defensive posture, focusing on consolidating its control over occupied territories, or whether it will continue to pursue limited offensives in an attempt to achieve incremental gains. The outcome will likely depend on the continued flow of Western aid to Ukraine and Russia's ability to address its logistical and manpower shortages.

Furthermore, the situation raises questions about the long-term sustainability of Russia's military power. The conflict in Ukraine has exposed significant weaknesses in its defence industry and highlighted the vulnerabilities of its armed forces. Repairing these weaknesses will require substantial investment and systemic reforms, a task that may prove challenging given the current economic and political climate in Russia. The war is proving to be a costly and debilitating endeavour for Moscow, with far-reaching implications for its future military capabilities and geopolitical influence.