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Should You Buy Archer Aviation Stock Below $15? | The Motley Fool

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  Published in Stocks and Investing on Wednesday, November 5th 2025 at 11:04 GMT by The Motley Fool
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Archer Aviation: Why Buying Below $15 Could Be a Smart Play

Archer Aviation, the electric vertical take‑off and landing (eVTOL) startup that promises to revolutionize urban air mobility, is currently trading around $13‑$14. The company’s share price is near the price that the Motley Fool’s “Buy the Dip” series has identified as a potentially attractive entry point. The article on the Fool’s website, “Should You Buy Archer Aviation Stock Below $15?” dissects the company’s fundamentals, market prospects, risks, and valuation, ultimately recommending that investors consider purchasing shares if the price dips below the $15 threshold.

The Core Business and Technology

Archer Aviation’s business revolves around developing and commercializing electric air taxis that can take off, land, and hover without engines or propellers. The company’s prototype, the Archer “X‑1,” has flown successfully in test environments, demonstrating the viability of its battery‑powered design and lightweight composite airframe. Archer’s technology leverages distributed electric propulsion and a vertical lift system that reduces noise, eliminates tailwinds, and simplifies aircraft handling. The design is intended to be safe, efficient, and cost‑effective, positioning Archer to capture a significant share of the burgeoning eVTOL market.

The company is building its own “eVTOL factory” in Arizona, a 140‑acre facility that will produce aircraft components and final assemblies. Archer has secured contracts with multiple cities, airlines, and government agencies, indicating early adoption of its platform. In addition, the company has partnered with the U.S. Air Force to develop the “Advanced Air Mobility” (AAM) aircraft for military and civilian use, broadening its potential revenue streams.

Financial Snapshot

Archer’s financial performance reflects the typical profile of a high‑growth, capital‑intensive startup. The company reported:

• Revenue: $0.0 in 2023, $0.1 million in 2024, and projected $12 million in 2025. The revenue stream is primarily derived from lease and service agreements with city partners and from the sale of aircraft to other operators.
• Operating Loss: A projected loss of $68.5 million in 2025, primarily driven by R&D, manufacturing, and marketing expenses.
• Cash Flow: Negative operating cash flow in 2024 and 2025, as the company continues to invest heavily in infrastructure and product development.
• Capital Needs: Archer will likely raise additional capital through equity or debt financing in the near term to sustain production, meet regulatory milestones, and expand its order book.

The article emphasizes that Archer’s cash burn is high but expected to reduce as production ramps up and revenue grows. The company’s recent funding round—a $100‑million Series C—provides a cushion to reach key milestones, including FAA certification and commercial deployment of the X‑1.

Market Opportunity

The eVTOL market is projected to grow from $1.3 billion in 2023 to $12.8 billion by 2030, driven by rising congestion, climate change concerns, and the need for efficient last‑mile transportation. According to industry analysts, Archer could capture 5‑10% of the market by 2035 if it achieves mass production and regulatory approval. The company’s focus on vertical lift, battery autonomy, and a modular design gives it a competitive edge over other entrants that rely on heavier hybrid systems or complex propulsion architectures.

Archer’s partnerships with city governments—such as New York, Los Angeles, and San Francisco—highlight a growing appetite for urban air mobility solutions. These pilots are designed to demonstrate feasibility, safety, and operational cost, paving the way for commercial rollout in 2026‑2027.

Valuation Analysis

The Motley Fool article evaluates Archer’s valuation using multiple approaches:

1. Revenue Multiples: With a projected $12 million revenue in 2025 and a price‑to‑sales ratio of 2.5, the share price would be around $15. The company’s current price of $13‑$14 is below that implied valuation, suggesting a buying opportunity.
2. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): A conservative DCF model that accounts for expected revenue growth, capital expenditure, and a discount rate of 12% produces a fair value estimate of $14‑$16. The current market price sits on the lower side of this range.
3. Comparable Company Analysis: Comparing Archer to other early‑stage aerospace and battery companies (e.g., Joby Aviation, Lilium) yields a valuation multiple that supports a price of $15 or less.

The article underscores that the current market cap—about $250 million—makes Archer one of the most affordable eVTOL stocks, especially when compared to the valuations of larger competitors. Therefore, if the stock trades below $15, it would be considered a bargain relative to its peers and its intrinsic value.

Risks and Caveats

While the upside potential is substantial, the article also outlines several risks:

• Regulatory Hurdles: FAA certification of eVTOL aircraft is still in its early stages. Delays or stringent requirements could postpone commercial entry.
• Technology Risks: Battery performance, range, and safety remain critical. Any significant setback could erode confidence in the platform.
• Execution Risks: Scaling manufacturing, managing supply chains, and hiring skilled personnel are challenging for a nascent aerospace company.
• Competitive Landscape: Other eVTOL players (e.g., Volocopter, EHang, and established aerospace giants like Boeing and Airbus) could outpace Archer’s development.
• Market Adoption: Consumer acceptance of air taxis, pricing models, and city infrastructure adoption will dictate the pace of deployment.

Despite these risks, the article concludes that Archer’s leadership team, strong partnerships, and clear technology roadmap mitigate many of the concerns.

Bottom Line

The Motley Fool’s recommendation is clear: buy Archer Aviation shares if the price dips below $15. The company’s financials, strategic partnerships, and a sizeable untapped market make it a compelling long‑term play. Investors are advised to monitor regulatory developments, FAA milestones, and the company’s progress in scaling production. Should the stock fall into the identified “buy‑the‑dip” range, it could offer a chance to acquire a stake in a company that may help shape the future of urban transportation.

Key Takeaways

• Archer’s electric air taxi platform has proven flight capabilities and strategic partnerships with U.S. cities.
• Revenue is projected to rise sharply from $0.1 million in 2024 to $12 million in 2025, but operating losses will persist until mass production.
• The company’s valuation, based on revenue multiples and DCF, implies a fair value of $14‑$16 per share.
• Risks include regulatory delays, technology challenges, execution hurdles, and intense competition.
• The article recommends buying shares if the price trades below $15, citing the stock’s affordability relative to its intrinsic value.

Archer Aviation’s trajectory, as outlined in the Fool’s analysis, positions it as a high‑potential bet in the emerging eVTOL space—an industry set to transform how people move within and between urban centers.