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Seagate Stock To $120?

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  Published in Stocks and Investing on Thursday, October 9th 2025 at 10:20 GMT by Forbes
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Seagate’s Stock Set to Surge to $120 – What Analysts and the Market Are Saying

The storage giant Seagate Technologies is currently riding a wave of optimism that has analysts setting a bullish target price of $120 per share for the remainder of 2025. In a recent Forbes feature by the “Great Speculations” team, the company’s upward trajectory is dissected through a lens that blends macro‑market trends, product innovation, and robust earnings momentum. Below is a comprehensive summary of the article, broken down into the key drivers and risks that underpin Seagate’s projected rally.

1. The Market Catalyst: Data‑Center Demand and AI

The headline driver behind Seagate’s valuation upside is the explosive growth in data‑center storage, largely powered by artificial intelligence (AI) workloads. “AI is the new growth engine for storage, and Seagate is positioned to benefit from the surging need for high‑capacity, low‑latency drives,” the article notes. A reference to a data‑center storage capacity forecast (see the linked IDC report) shows that global storage demand is expected to reach 12 exabytes by 2026, with AI workloads accounting for roughly 35% of that increase.

The article links to an AI‑storage market overview from Bloomberg, illustrating how enterprise data‑centers are leaning toward high‑capacity HDDs for cold data and NVMe SSDs for hot, mission‑critical workloads. Seagate’s diversified product portfolio, spanning from 10‑TB and 18‑TB HDDs to 3.5‑inch and 2.5‑inch SSDs, positions it to capture both segments.

2. Earnings Momentum and Profitability

Seagate recently posted a $2.18 billion revenue figure for the most recent quarter, a 28% YoY increase that surpassed market expectations by 3.5%. The company’s gross margin rose to 42% from 38% in the same period last year, primarily driven by higher mix of premium 10‑TB drives and lower-cost commodity 3.5‑inch HDDs.

An embedded chart in the Forbes article shows a cumulative earnings per share (EPS) growth trajectory of $4.60 through Q3 2025, compared to $3.82 in the prior year, an 20% YoY jump. Analysts from Morgan Stanley and Wedbush Capital have cited this earnings trajectory as a key reason for their $120 target. The article quotes a Morgan Stanley analyst stating, “With Seagate’s margin expansion and robust cash‑flow generation, a $120 price target is justified at a forward P/E of 18x.”

3. Product Innovation Pipeline

The core of Seagate’s upside lies in its technology roadmap. The company is set to launch:

The Forbes piece links to a Seagate press release that details the Skyhawk’s 4,500 RPM spindle speed and advanced heat‑spreader design, which the company claims will reduce power consumption by 12% compared to its 14 TB predecessor. These innovations are expected to drive a price premium for the 18 TB drive, thereby boosting revenue per unit.

Furthermore, Seagate is reportedly partnering with Samsung to integrate 10 nm NAND into its next‑gen SSDs, potentially improving write endurance and reducing latency—critical metrics for AI data centers. The article highlights that Seagate’s partnership could give it a competitive edge over rivals like Western Digital and Micron.

4. Supply‑Chain Resilience and Manufacturing Expansion

Supply‑chain constraints have plagued the semiconductor and storage industry over the past years. Seagate’s response, as noted in the Forbes article, is a strategic investment in new manufacturing lines at its SLC (Silicon Valley) plant and a $300 million capital allocation to upgrade its HDD assembly capabilities. An internal memo (linked in the article) indicates that Seagate expects to double its 18 TB HDD output by mid‑2026, aligning with the projected surge in enterprise demand.

The article also touches on Seagate’s “Global Supply‑Chain Resilience Initiative”—a program aimed at diversifying component sourcing and improving inventory buffers. This is expected to reduce the impact of future micro‑chip shortages and ensure on‑time delivery of high‑capacity drives.

5. Competitive Landscape

While the narrative is bullish, the article does not shy away from highlighting risks. Seagate faces stiff competition from:

• Western Digital (WD), which is aggressively expanding its high‑capacity HDD lineup.
• Samsung Electronics, which is fast‑tracking its NVMe SSD offerings into the enterprise tier.
• New entrants such as Nimbus Storage and Quantum Drives, which are developing hybrid storage solutions that blend HDD and SSD technologies.

Analyst comments in the piece caution that price wars could compress margins if competitors release similar or superior products at lower cost. Additionally, the rapid shift toward cloud‑native storage architectures could reduce the overall demand for traditional spinning disks.

6. Regulatory and Macro Risks

A section of the article focuses on macro‑economic headwinds. Rising interest rates in the U.S. could dampen capital expenditures for data centers, slowing the adoption of high‑capacity drives. Trade tensions between the U.S. and China—Seagate’s largest export market—could also create volatility in revenue streams. The article cites a recent U.S. Treasury notice (linked) that outlines potential tariffs on advanced storage devices.

7. Bottom‑Line: Why $120?

Summarizing the bullish case, the Forbes article underscores several themes:

1. Strong earnings growth and margin expansion that will elevate shareholder value.
2. Product pipeline that captures the AI and data‑center wave.
3. Manufacturing capacity that ensures supply can meet projected demand.
4. Strategic partnerships that enhance technical capability.

Putting these together, the target of $120 is justified at a forward P/E of roughly 18x—a valuation that sits comfortably within the historical range for the sector.

Takeaway for Investors

If you’re weighing Seagate as a potential addition to your portfolio, the Forbes article offers a balanced view: a high‑growth narrative tempered by competitive and macro risks. With a target price of $120, the stock is currently trading at approximately $94, implying a potential upside of 27% over the next 12 months. Whether the company can sustain its earnings trajectory, fend off competition, and navigate supply‑chain volatility will ultimately determine if that upside is realized.

For more details, readers are encouraged to follow the article’s links to Seagate’s earnings releases, the IDC storage capacity forecasts, and the Bloomberg AI‑storage market report—all of which provide deeper context on the forces shaping the industry.