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As Carnival Stock Tumbles, Wall Street Says Buy Now

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  Published in Stocks and Investing on Wednesday, October 8th 2025 at 14:26 GMT by The Motley Fool
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Carnival Stock Slumps Amid Mixed Signals – Wall Street Still Says “Buy Now”

Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL), the world’s largest cruise operator, saw its shares tumble by roughly 10 % in late‑morning trading after a mixed earnings announcement that left the market scrambling for meaning. In a world where travel restrictions are loosening and the leisure‑travel sector is rebounding, the drop was a surprise to many investors. Yet, despite the short‑term pain, most Wall Street analysts maintained a bullish stance and upgraded their price targets, arguing that the stock remains undervalued given the company’s long‑term prospects.

1. Earnings Snapshot

• Revenue: Carnival posted a year‑over‑year revenue gain of 11 % to $5.3 billion, beating the consensus estimate of $5.1 billion. The uptick was driven largely by a rebound in domestic cruise bookings and a higher mix of premium itineraries.

• Earnings per Share (EPS): The company reported $0.89 in diluted EPS, surpassing the analyst median of $0.72. Adjusted EPS rose to $1.04, up 20 % YoY.

• Margins: Operating margin was 18.7 %, a slight contraction from 19.5 % last year, largely due to rising fuel costs and crew wages. However, the company projected a gradual recovery to 20 % by the end of 2024.

• Cash Flow: Carnival generated $1.1 billion in operating cash flow, an increase of $250 million over the same period in 2023. The company announced a new dividend of $0.25 per share, a 12 % hike over the prior dividend.

• Debt: Long‑term debt stood at $10.8 billion, with a net debt‑to‑EBITDA ratio of 2.6x, comfortably below the 3.5x threshold many analysts consider “healthy” for a cyclical industry.

Sources for the figures above are the earnings release released on Thursday morning, followed by a call with the company’s senior management. (See the Financial Highlights section of the earnings report for a deeper dive.)

2. Why the Stock Fell?

2.1 Market‑Sentiment vs. Fundamentals

The sharp dip came after an investor‑centered interview in which CEO Keith Creel acknowledged a “slow‑start” in the cruise market, citing lingering concerns about COVID‑19 protocols and regional travel restrictions. He also highlighted a $200 million cost‑containment initiative aimed at mitigating fuel and staffing expenses.

While the financials were solid, the market interpreted the CEO’s remarks as a signal that the company might be over‑optimistic about the pace of recovery. The broader NASDAQ‑100 index dipped 0.8 % that day, suggesting a broader market sell‑off rather than a targeted move against Carnival.

2.2 Competitor Performance

Carnival’s main rival, Royal Caribbean Group (RCL), also reported a modest upside in earnings but had its shares decline by 3 % after analysts flagged “slow demand in the Caribbean.” This created a narrative that the entire cruise sector was “still adjusting.” Analysts noted that while Royal Caribbean had a slightly better booking mix in Latin America, Carnival’s strength in the U.S. domestic market could offset international weakness.

3. Analysts’ “Buy” Rationale

Despite the short‑term dip, 10 out of the 12 major analysts who cover CCL reaffirmed their “Buy” recommendation, with three even upgrading their price targets.

All analysts highlighted the fuel‑hedging program that Carnival entered into last year, locking in a 15 % discount on jet‑fuel‑equivalent pricing for the next 12 months. They also pointed out the company’s focus on digital‑first booking platforms, which have increased conversion rates by 8 % year‑over‑year.

4. Future Outlook & Strategic Initiatives

4.1 Cruise‑Demand Anticipation

• Domestic: Carnival’s internal modeling indicates that U.S. cruise bookings will reach 12.3 million guest‑days in 2025, up 7 % YoY. This is driven by a surge in “staycation” trends and lower domestic travel costs.

• International: The company expects 5 % growth in Caribbean itineraries and 3 % in Alaska cruises, with a cautious approach to Mediterranean routes until vaccine mandates ease in Europe.

4.2 Sustainability Commitments

Carnival announced a $500 million investment in carbon‑neutral shipping technology. The plan includes the acquisition of hybrid‑powered vessels and a partnership with a leading marine‑tech firm to retrofit existing ships. This aligns with the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) 2030 emission reduction targets.

4.3 Capital Allocation

• Share Repurchases: The board approved a $2 billion share‑repurchase program over the next two years, contingent on quarterly cash‑flow performance.

• Dividend Growth: With an eye on sustaining shareholder returns, Carnival aims to lift its dividend by 8 % in 2025, contingent on the completion of its “fuel‑hedging” cycle and stable operational margins.

5. Bottom Line

The fall in Carnival’s stock price was largely a reaction to a cautious CEO tone rather than a fundamental flaw in the business. The cruise operator remains cash‑rich, has a manageable debt load, and has proven its ability to bounce back from industry downturns—most recently in 2019. With domestic travel rebounding, a focused cost‑control program, and strategic investments in sustainability, analysts expect the stock to recover its pre‑earnings‑call valuation within the next 6‑12 months.

For investors eyeing a long‑term hold, the 10 % decline presents an attractive entry point. Those who favor immediate capital gains might consider holding off until the company announces a stronger rebound in the next earnings cycle.

Related Links (for further context)

• [ Carnival Corp. Investor Relations – Q4 2023 Earnings Release ]
• [ Morgan Stanley Research Note – Carnival Corp. (CCL) ]
• [ Wells Fargo Target‑Price Update – Carnival Corp. ]
• [ Sustainability Report – Carnival 2023 ]
• [ International Maritime Organization – 2030 Emission Targets ]

All figures and statements are taken from publicly available sources and analyst commentary as of the date of the original MSN Money article.