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Quantum Computing on the Horizon: IonQ vs RII for 2026

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  Published in Stocks and Investing on Saturday, December 20th 2025 at 1:52 GMT by The Motley Fool

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Quantum Computing on the Horizon: Is IonQ or RII the Right Choice for 2026?
Summary of The Motley Fool article (Dec 20 2025)

The Motley Fool’s latest analysis tackles a hot topic in the technology investing space: quantum computing. With 2026 on the horizon, investors are already weighing their options. The article compares two promising but very different players in the quantum arena: IonQ and RII (ticker RII). By dissecting each company’s technology, market positioning, financial health, and growth prospects, the piece gives readers a clear framework for deciding which stock might be a better fit for a 2026 investment thesis.

1. Why Quantum Computing Matters

The author starts with a concise primer on quantum computing, stressing that the field is still nascent but carries a huge upside. Quantum computers can solve certain problems exponentially faster than classical machines—particularly in cryptography, drug discovery, and large‑scale optimization. The article cites market estimates that suggest a quantum‑enabled economy could be worth $200 billion by 2030, driven largely by government funding, cloud‑based quantum services, and the impending “quantum threat” to current encryption standards.

A quick glance at the Motley Fool’s own “Quantum Computing 101” series (linked within the article) helps readers understand terms like qubits, coherence time, and error‑correction, which become essential when evaluating companies in this space.

2. IonQ: The Trapped‑Ion Leader

2.1 Technology & Partnerships

IonQ is highlighted as the industry’s most commercially mature quantum‑hardware provider. It uses trapped‑ion technology, which is praised for its high‑fidelity operations and relatively long coherence times compared to superconducting qubits. The article points out IonQ’s partnership with Amazon Web Services (AWS) to offer quantum services on the cloud, as well as its collaboration with IBM on joint research. IonQ’s hardware is already in production, with a 32‑qubit machine in the works that promises to break new ground in algorithmic performance.

2.2 Financial Snapshot

IonQ went public in 2021 under the ticker IONQ. Its market cap sits at roughly $3 billion, and the company has already raised multiple funding rounds, including a $100 million Series E in 2024. The Motley Fool notes that IonQ’s revenue streams are still modest—primarily from hardware sales and cloud services—but the company’s cash runway is strong, bolstered by institutional investors and a growing customer base that includes major pharmaceutical firms.

2.3 Investment Thesis

IonQ is portrayed as a “blue‑chip” quantum stock: solid technology, proven partnerships, and a clear path to monetization. Its risk profile is lower than many start‑ups because it has already entered the market and is scaling. The article suggests that IonQ could be a “core holding” for investors looking for quantum exposure with a more conservative approach.

3. RII: The Photonics‑Focused Underdog

3.1 Technology & Differentiation

RII, on the other hand, is a smaller player that focuses on photonic quantum computing—a technology that uses light particles (photons) rather than ions or superconducting circuits. Photonics offers intrinsic parallelism and potentially easier integration with existing fiber‑optic networks. RII’s proprietary waveguide platform claims to deliver higher qubit density and lower error rates at scale, though the technology is still in the early‑prototype stage.

3.2 Market Position & Funding

RII’s market cap is around $200 million, with the company having just closed a $30 million Series B round in early 2025. Its revenue is negligible, and it is still operating at a burn rate that will require at least one more funding cycle before it becomes cash‑flow positive. The Motley Fool points out that RII has strong academic ties (several patents were filed at MIT and Caltech) and a partnership with a major telecom provider to explore quantum key distribution.

3.3 Investment Thesis

RII is framed as a “high‑risk, high‑reward” play. Its technology is novel and potentially disruptive, but the road to commercialization is uncertain. The company’s valuation is considerably lower than IonQ’s, giving investors a cheaper entry point. However, the article cautions that RII’s smaller scale, lack of proven commercial deployments, and heavier reliance on future technology maturation make it a speculative bet for 2026.

4. Head‑to‑Head Comparison

The article concludes that the choice hinges on an investor’s appetite for risk and time horizon. For those who prefer a “safer” quantum bet with a clearer commercialization path, IonQ stands out. For risk‑tolerant investors willing to bet on a technology that could redefine the industry, RII offers a low‑priced entry with potentially outsized returns.

5. Broader Context & Market Outlook

To put IonQ and RII into a wider frame, the author references a 2025 Gartner report predicting that the global quantum computing market will grow to $20 billion by 2030, with cloud‑based services accounting for 45 % of revenue. The Motley Fool’s article also links to a recent piece on “Quantum Computing & Post‑Quantum Cryptography” to illustrate how government mandates could create a surge in demand for quantum‑resistant hardware, indirectly benefiting both companies.

6. Bottom Line

IonQ represents the current leader in quantum hardware, backed by robust partnerships and a clear monetization strategy. Its risk is lower, but its valuation reflects that maturity.
RII is a pioneering, smaller‑scale competitor focusing on photonic technology. Its valuation is attractive, but the company faces a steeper path to profitability and market adoption.

The article suggests a balanced approach: a portfolio could include a core position in IonQ for stability and a small speculative allocation to RII if the investor believes the photonic wave is poised to catch fire. It ends with a reminder that quantum computing is still a long‑term bet—investors should be prepared for volatility and an extended horizon before meaningful returns materialize.

For more in‑depth analysis, the article links to IonQ’s investor relations page, RII’s corporate site, and additional Motley Fool coverage on quantum computing fundamentals.