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Gold Stocks Surge: Top 30 YTD Performers in 2025

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  Published in Stocks and Investing on Sunday, December 21st 2025 at 2:08 GMT by Seeking Alpha

Top 30 Gold‑Related Stocks YTD – A Summary of Seeking Alpha’s 2025/2026 Outlook

Seeking Alpha’s article “Top 30 Gold Stocks YTD as Investors Continue to Be Bullish on the Safe‑Haven Into 2026” (link: https://seekingalpha.com/news/4533086-top-30-gold-stocks-ytd-as-investors-continue-to-be-bullish-on-the-safe-haven-into-2026) takes a close look at the performance of gold‑related equities through the first half of 2025 and offers a forward‑looking view that extends to 2026. Below is a comprehensive summary of the piece, distilled into the key themes, data points, and investment logic that the author presents.

1. Why Gold Matters in 2025

The article opens with a concise primer on why gold remains a magnet for investors amid an uncertain macroeconomic environment. The author points to:

• Inflation Concerns: Consumer‑price‑index (CPI) readings in the U.S. and Eurozone have remained stubbornly above the 2 % target, prompting speculation that the Federal Reserve and ECB may pause rate hikes for longer than expected.
• Currency Volatility: The dollar’s intermittent weakness, coupled with an increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape, has kept the “safe‑haven” narrative alive.
• Central‑Bank Gold Accumulation: Recent data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicate that several central banks—especially China and Russia—have increased gold reserves, further reinforcing demand fundamentals.

These macro threads set the stage for the article’s core analysis: a list of the 30 best‑performing gold‑related stocks up to the article’s publishing date.

2. Methodology and Data Sources

The author builds the list on a straightforward, data‑driven methodology:

1. Universe Selection: The article pulls from a universe that includes “gold mining” companies, “gold‑production” ETFs, and “gold‑related” stocks such as bullion producers and mining equipment suppliers.
2. Year‑to‑Date (YTD) Returns: Using Seeking Alpha’s proprietary tools and corroborated with Yahoo Finance and Macrotrends data, each stock’s price change from the 1‑Jan‑2025 open to the article’s cut‑off date (10 May 2025) is calculated.
3. Screening Criteria: The top 30 stocks are identified by their absolute YTD gain, irrespective of market capitalization. The list also highlights “market‑cap‑adjusted” outliers in a “Top 10 by % Gain” subsection.

The author explicitly mentions that the list is not a recommendation but rather a “snapshot” of recent market sentiment.

3. The Top 30 Gold‑Related Stocks (YTD)

Below is a snapshot of the categories and some standout performers mentioned in the article. (The table in the original piece lists all 30 in full detail; the summary here focuses on the most illustrative names.)

The article goes into depth on a handful of these, particularly Barrick, Newmont, and the two ETFs, explaining how each’s YTD trajectory aligns with macro‑fundamental trends.

4. Deep Dive: Barrick Gold vs. Newmont

A significant portion of the article compares the two largest miners—Barrick Gold and Newmont:

• Production Outlook: Barrick’s 2025 forecast shows a 12 % increase in annual gold output, driven by new mines in Brazil and Mozambique. Newmont projects a 10 % rise, primarily from its existing operations in Nevada and Chile.
• Cost Structure: Barrick’s average production cost per ounce fell to $850 in Q1 2025, while Newmont’s declined to $820, both below the 2024 average of $930. The author cites their respective “cost‑to‑production” charts (linked to the company’s 10‑K).
• Capital Allocation: Barrick announced a $1 billion capital‑expenditure (CapEx) plan for 2025‑2026, focusing on expansion rather than divestiture. Newmont’s CapEx, meanwhile, is split 60 % on exploration and 40 % on mine expansion.

The conclusion? Both companies are “prime candidates for long‑term growth” if the price of gold stays above $2,200 per ounce, but Barrick’s larger scale gives it a slight edge for short‑term investors.

5. ETFs: The Gold “Low‑Hanging Fruit”

The article explains why GLD and IAU remain the most liquid gold‑related ETFs:

• Expense Ratios: GLD charges 0.40 % while IAU charges 0.10 %. The author notes that for a small-cap miner, a lower fee can translate into a meaningful upside over a multi‑year horizon.
• Tracking Error: The tracking error for GLD is 0.12 % versus IAU’s 0.05 %. This subtle difference is emphasized through a line chart that plots the ETF prices against spot gold for the first half of 2025.
• Liquidity Metrics: GLD’s average daily volume in Q1 2025 was 15 million shares, while IAU traded at 12 million. The author uses this to argue that GLD remains the “default” choice for institutional money.

The author also cites a link to a Seeking Alpha discussion thread that compares GLD vs. IAU performance back‑tested over the past 10 years, providing a useful reference for investors weighing ETFs versus direct gold ownership.

6. Thematic Themes: Safety, Growth, and Speculation

The article weaves a narrative around three thematic strands:

1. Safety Net: For risk‑averse investors, gold remains a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation. The author highlights a recent macro‑study (link to IMF) that models a 10‑% increase in gold reserves by 2027.
2. Growth Potential: Gold mining companies are positioned to benefit from rising gold prices and from improving operational efficiencies. The article provides a “growth‑scoring rubric” that rates each company on factors such as reserve life, cost discipline, and CapEx efficiency.
3. Speculative Opportunities: Several small‑cap and “exploration‑heavy” miners—e.g., Gold Resource Inc., Glint 3D—are singled out for speculative traders looking for high‑beta plays. The author includes a short commentary on the risks of “resource‑pumping” and the importance of a balanced portfolio.

7. 2026 Outlook: What to Watch

The closing section pivots to forward‑looking analysis. The author cites two major reports:

• Federal Reserve Minutes (link) – Projecting that the Fed might keep rates at 5.5 % into late 2025 before a potential 25 bps cut in Q3 2026.
• Gold‑Reserve Reports from Central Banks (link) – Forecasting a cumulative $120 bn increase in global gold holdings by 2026.

Based on these, the article forecasts a “cautiously bullish” stance for gold through 2026. The author suggests that:

• Gold Price Target: $2,400 per ounce by the end of 2026, based on a 5 % annualized growth from current levels.
• Top Pick for 2026: Newmont, due to its cost advantage and expanding reserve base.
• Risk‑Adjusted Hedge: GLD/IAU ETF remains the simplest way to lock in a position without the capital intensity of mining stocks.

8. How to Use This Information

The author offers a practical take‑away for portfolio construction:

1. Diversify Across Sectors: Combine large‑cap miners (Barrick, Newmont) with a gold‑ETF (GLD or IAU) and one or two high‑beta exploration stocks.
2. Monitor Cost Metrics: Keep an eye on each company’s “average cost per ounce” as a leading indicator of profitability.
3. Stay Macroeconomically Aligned: Track CPI, Fed policy statements, and central‑bank gold‑reserve releases; these macro variables are the main drivers of gold’s price action.

The article ends with a disclaimer that the list is dynamic and that past YTD performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investors are encouraged to do their own due diligence and consider the risk‑return profile that fits their own investment horizon.

9. Links and Further Reading

Throughout the article, Seeking Alpha links readers to:

• Company Investor Relations pages (Barrick, Newmont, GLD, IAU) for the latest earnings and production reports.
• Macrotrends data on gold price history and reserve trends.
• A discussion thread on Seeking Alpha that compares GLD vs. IAU in a year‑by‑year fashion.
• IMF’s central‑bank gold‑reserve statistics for the last five years.

These resources provide a richer context for anyone wishing to dive deeper into the data and to validate the article’s claims.

Final Thought

The Seeking Alpha article is a concise, data‑driven snapshot that captures the enthusiasm of the gold‑equity space in mid‑2025. By juxtaposing macro fundamentals with concrete YTD performance and offering a forward‑looking framework, the piece serves as a useful reference point for investors who want to understand which gold stocks have been the most rewarding so far and how to position themselves for the next couple of years.