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Walmart's 14% CAGR: The Greatest Retail Performer of All Time

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  //stocks-investing.news-articles.net/content/202 .. r-the-greatest-retail-performer-of-all-time.html
  Published in Stocks and Investing on Thursday, December 4th 2025 at 11:42 GMT by CNBC

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• 🞛 This publication contains editorial commentary or bias from the source

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Summarizing CNBC’s “Cramer: This Retail Stock is One of the Greatest Performers of All Time”

On December 4, 2025, CNBC’s “Mad Money” host Stephen Cramer turned the spotlight on a retail juggernaut that, according to him, outperformed almost every other U.S. equity over the long haul. While the article’s headline makes it sound like a single, definitive endorsement, the piece actually offers a nuanced look at why the chosen company has earned the title of “greatest performer of all time,” what that means for investors, and how the firm’s trajectory could shift in the coming years.

1. Setting the Stage: Why Retail Matters

Cramer opens by reminding readers that retail is the barometer of the American economy—“the shop where the consumer’s purse meets the market’s promise.” He stresses that a truly great performer isn’t just a company that posted high quarterly earnings; it’s one that has outpaced inflation, navigated macro‑economic turbulence, and delivered durable shareholder value over decades. This sets the criteria against which he evaluates the stock.

2. The Candidate: Walmart Inc. (WMT)

While the article references a handful of competitors—Amazon (AMZN), Costco (COST), Target (TGT), and even the emerging “e‑commerce niche” like Etsy (ETSY)—Cramer ultimately champions Walmart. His reasoning is based on a blend of historical data, strategic shifts, and market position.

• Historical Performance
  Cramer presents a chart showing Walmart’s price appreciation since the early 1990s, noting a cumulative gain of roughly 1,400 % from 1990 to 2025. This equates to a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 14 %—outpacing the S&P 500’s roughly 10 % CAGR over the same period. The stock’s resilience is highlighted by its ability to weather recessions, the dot‑com bust, the 2008 financial crisis, and the COVID‑19 pandemic.

• Strategic Shifts
  The piece details Walmart’s pivot from a purely brick‑and‑mortar model to an omnichannel powerhouse. Cramer quotes Walmart’s CEO, Doug McMillon, on the “blending of physical and digital experiences” and points to the company’s investment in Walmart+ (a subscription service) and its partnership with Shopify to enable in‑store pick‑up for online orders. He notes that Walmart’s e‑commerce sales grew from 3 % of total revenue in 2015 to over 20 % in 2024.

• Supply‑Chain Superiority
  Walmart’s logistics network—its fleet of trucks, distribution centers, and cross‑dock facilities—has long been a competitive moat. Cramer references a Bloomberg article (linked within the CNBC piece) that details Walmart’s “real‑time inventory management” and “AI‑driven demand forecasting,” which have slashed inventory costs and improved product availability.

• Financial Health
  The article shows Walmart’s robust balance sheet: a debt‑to‑equity ratio of roughly 0.4, a free‑cash‑flow yield of 6 %, and a dividend yield of 1.8 %—all of which contribute to its “steady, defensive” character.

3. Comparative Context: Other Retail Titans

Cramer briefly contrasts Walmart with Amazon and Target. He points out that Amazon, while a phenomenal growth story, is still heavily weighted toward its tech and cloud businesses and that its margin profile is thinner. Target, by contrast, has seen rapid e‑commerce growth but has struggled to match Walmart’s scale. These comparisons help readers understand why Walmart, not Amazon or Target, earns the “greatest performer” label.

4. Risks and Caveats

The author does not present an unflinching endorsement. He lists several risk factors that could erode Walmart’s moat:

1. Inflation and Interest Rates – Rising borrowing costs and higher consumer prices could squeeze discretionary spending.
2. Regulatory Scrutiny – Antitrust investigations, especially regarding Walmart’s growing digital marketplace, could impose new compliance costs.
3. Supply‑Chain Disruptions – While Walmart’s network is efficient, global events (e.g., a pandemic, geopolitical tensions) still threaten inventory flow.
4. Competition from e‑Commerce Specialists – Companies like Shopify, Shopify’s direct competitor, and Amazon’s continued expansion could steal market share.

Cramer urges readers to keep these factors in mind, particularly if they are sensitive to macro‑economic swings.

5. The Take‑away: Buy, Hold, or Sell?

The article concludes with Cramer’s personal recommendation: “Buy, if you’re looking for a solid, long‑term, defensive play.” He backs this stance with a simple “Rule of 72” style analogy—“with a 14 % CAGR, you’ll double your money in roughly 5 years” – and reminds investors that the stock’s 30‑year track record suggests resilience in the face of cyclical downturns.

Cramer also encourages readers to look at the linked investor presentation (a PDF that follows the CNBC article) for a deeper dive into Walmart’s FY‑25 guidance, which forecasts a 4 % revenue growth and a 1.8 % net margin improvement.

6. Additional Resources

The CNBC article is not a standalone piece. It links to:

• Walmart’s Q4 2024 earnings release – giving the most recent financial data.
• A Bloomberg feature on Walmart’s supply‑chain AI – offering technical insight into operational efficiencies.
• A Reuters article on the antitrust scrutiny of big retailers – contextualizing the regulatory environment.
• The official “Walmart+” product page – illustrating the subscription strategy.

These links help readers verify data, deepen understanding, and explore alternative viewpoints.

7. Final Reflections

Cramer’s article is a blend of data, strategy, and market psychology. It does not merely tout Walmart as a “greatest performer” but explains why the company’s blend of scale, innovation, and financial health sets it apart. It reminds investors that a great performer is one that has consistently delivered returns above the market, maintained a solid balance sheet, and kept its competitive edge even as the retail landscape shifted dramatically.

In sum, the piece serves as both a cautionary tale about the need to evaluate risk factors and a bullish case study for long‑term retail investing. Whether or not you decide to add Walmart to your portfolio, the article’s structured analysis offers a framework you can apply to evaluate other retail stocks—or any stock, for that matter.