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Toyota RAV4 Production Slowdown Signals Next-Gen Arrival

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  Published in Stocks and Investing on Wednesday, February 4th 2026 at 19:17 GMT by Drive.com.au
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Sydney, Australia - February 5th, 2026 - Toyota Australia is strategically winding down production and deliveries of its popular RAV4 SUV, leaving dealerships with critically low stock levels. This move coincides with a continuing sales slump for the RAV4, which saw its lowest figures in four years in 2023, sparking speculation that Toyota is clearing the path for the highly anticipated next-generation model. While Toyota remains tight-lipped about the exact reasons, industry experts believe the supply constriction is a deliberate strategy to minimize overlap between the outgoing and incoming models.

The RAV4, a mainstay in the Australian SUV market, recorded 27,791 sales in 2023 - a substantial decrease from the 39,152 units sold in 2020. This represents a nearly 30% drop in demand, a downturn steeper than the overall softening experienced by the SUV segment as a whole. Though broader economic factors and increased competition from rivals like the Mazda CX-5, Hyundai Tucson, and Kia Sportage certainly play a role, the deliberate reduction in supply suggests a more calculated approach by Toyota.

"We're seeing less and less RAV4 coming into the country," confided one Toyota dealer to Drive back in 2024, a sentiment echoed by several others across the country. "Orders are being carefully managed, and there's not a huge amount of stock on the ground. We're basically taking orders for what we can get." This cautious approach to order fulfillment indicates a clear intention to deplete existing inventory before the new model arrives.

A Glimpse into the Future: What to Expect from the Next-Generation RAV4

The next-generation RAV4, confirmed by Toyota Australia to be on track for a 2024 launch (and now well underway in its second year of sales), is expected to represent a significant departure from the current model. Industry analysts predict a comprehensive design overhaul, both exterior and interior, bringing the RAV4 in line with Toyota's more modern aesthetic seen in the recently updated Corolla and Camry. Expect sharper lines, a more aggressive front fascia, and a potentially more spacious and technologically advanced cabin.

However, the most significant changes are expected under the hood. The next-generation RAV4 is almost certain to feature an enhanced hybrid powertrain, potentially incorporating elements from Toyota's latest hybrid technology. This could mean increased fuel efficiency, improved performance, and a smoother driving experience. Rumours circulating within the automotive press suggest Toyota may even introduce a plug-in hybrid variant, catering to the growing demand for electrified vehicles. Some speculation even points towards a fully electric RAV4 variant in the future, although Toyota has yet to confirm this.

The shift towards a more advanced hybrid system is in line with Toyota's broader commitment to electrification. The company has heavily invested in hybrid technology for decades and is now expanding its range of electric vehicles. The RAV4, as one of its best-selling models globally, is a crucial platform for showcasing these advancements.

Impact on Buyers and the Australian Market

For prospective RAV4 buyers, the current situation demands patience and flexibility. Limited stock and constrained color/specification choices are likely to persist for the foreseeable future. Those hoping to secure a new RAV4 may face wait times of several months, or even longer, depending on their preferred configuration. It is advised to contact local dealerships well in advance and be prepared to compromise on certain features.

The strategic reduction in RAV4 supply also highlights a broader trend within the automotive industry: proactive inventory management in anticipation of new model releases. Automakers are increasingly wary of being stuck with large volumes of outdated stock when a redesigned vehicle hits the market.

The long-term impact on the Australian market remains to be seen. However, the next-generation RAV4 is expected to reignite demand and reclaim its position as a leading SUV. Toyota's reputation for reliability and fuel efficiency, combined with the anticipated improvements in design and technology, should appeal to a wide range of buyers. The question now is whether Toyota can meet the expected surge in demand once the new model is fully available.