Stocks & Investing
Stocks and InvestingStocks and Investing 
Tue, August 30, 2011
HME, CLP, AVB, BRE, ESS, PPS, REIT - Residential Stocks Overvalued
August 30, 2011/ M2 PRESSWIRE / BUYINS.NET / http://www.squeezetrigger.com is monitoring the REIT - Residential sector and these stocks are the most undervalued as of today. HOME PROPERTIES INC (NYSE:HME), COLONIAL PROPERTIES TRUST (NYSE:CLP), AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (NYSE:AVB), BRE PROPERTIES INC (NYSE:BRE), ESSEX PROPERTY TRUST INCORPORATED (NYSE:ESS), POST PROPERTIES INC (NYSE:PPS) are all expected to go Down as they are Overvalued according to industry standard valuation metrics. The valuation model employs a three-factor approach to stock valuation using fundamental variables--the company's trailing 12-month Earnings-Per-Share (EPS), the analyst consensus estimate of the company's forecasted 12-month EPS, and the 30-year Treasury yield--to create a highly accurate reflection of a company's fair value.
The chart below displays the projected Fair Value and Valuation discount/premium of the most undervalued stocks in the highlighted industry group:
Symbol Company Name Last Close Fair Value Valuation Industry
HME HOME PROPERTIES INC 65.53 61.1 7.30% Overvalued REIT - Residential
CLP COLONIAL PROPERTIES TRUST 20.99 14.94 40.50% Overvalued REIT - Residential
AVB AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC 133.69 119.63 11.80% Overvalued REIT - Residential
BRE BRE PROPERTIES INC 49.13 45.94 6.90% Overvalued REIT - Residential
ESS ESSEX PROPERTY TRUST INCORPORATED 141.7 136.33 3.90% Overvalued REIT - Residential
PPS POST PROPERTIES INC 41.43 37.74 9.80% Overvalued REIT - Residential
Here are some of the variables that are utilized when calculating the Fair Market Valuation of a stock: Long-run EPS growth rate, Duration of Business-growth-cycle, Volatility of EPS growth rate, Systematic or beta risk of the firm, Correlation between the firm's EPS and the interest rate environment, EPS growth volatility, Dividend payout ratio, Buffer earnings, Interest rate related criteria: Interest rate (30 year yield) long-run level, Duration of interest rate cycle, Interest rate volatility. The Fair Market Valuation uses 12-month historic and forecasted EPS values and the current 30-year treasury yield as primary determinants. When calculating risk/return values such as the Sharpe ratio, the historic periods used are five years.
Some expected results of the Valuation Model are: the valuation of a stock increases in a declining interest rate environment. Increasing current and/or projected EPS will produce a higher Valuation. While long-term EPS growth would produce a corresponding long-term Valuation increase, concomitant long-term interest rate increases would offset EPS growth and depress the Valuation. The shorter a company's own business cycle, the higher its stock Valuation will be.
HOME PROPERTIES INC (NYSE:HME) - Home Properties, Inc., a real estate investment trust (REIT), engages in the ownership, operation, acquisition, development, and rehabilitation of apartment communities in the United States. As of December 31, 2007, it operated 125 communities with 38,646 apartment units in the northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and southeast Florida. The company qualifies as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal tax to the extent that it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its shareholders. The company was founded in 1993 and is based in Rochester, New York.
COLONIAL PROPERTIES TRUST (NYSE:CLP) - Colonial Properties Trust is a real estate investment trust (REIT). The firm engages in the acquisition, development, ownership, management, and leasing of commercial real estate properties. It invests in the public equity and real estate markets of the United States. The firm primarily invests in multifamily, office, retail, and for-sale properties. It develops mixed-use communities and merchant build properties. Colonial Properties Trust was founded on July 9, 1993 and is headquartered in Birmingham, Alabama.
AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (NYSE:AVB) - AvalonBay Communities, Inc. engages in the development, redevelopment, acquisition, ownership, and operation of multifamily communities in the United States. As of January 31, 2009, the company owned or held a direct or indirect ownership interest in 164 operating apartment communities comprising 45,728 apartment homes in 10 states and the District of Columbia. It also held a direct or indirect ownership interest in 14 communities under construction, as well as held rights to develop an additional 27 communities. The companys markets are located in New England, the New York/New Jersey metro area, the Mid-Atlantic, the Midwest, the Pacific Northwest, and the Northern and Southern California regions of the United States. AvalonBay Communities has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust and would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was founded in 1978 and is based in Arlington, Virginia.
BRE PROPERTIES INC (NYSE:BRE) - BRE Properties Inc., a real estate investment trust (REIT), engages in the development, acquisition, and management of multifamily apartment communities in the western United States. As of July 19, 2005, the company owned and operated 84 apartment communities totaling 23,826 units in California, Arizona, Washington, and Colorado. It also had 9 other properties in various stages of development and construction consisting of 2,339 units, as well as joint venture interests in 2 additional apartment communities comprising 488 units, as of the above date. The company has elected to be treated as a REIT and would not be subject to federal income tax, if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its shareholders. BRE Properties was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
ESSEX PROPERTY TRUST INCORPORATED (NYSE:ESS) - Essex Property Trust, Inc., a real estate investment trust (REIT), engages in the ownership, operation, management, acquisition, development, and redevelopment of apartment communities primarily in the West Coast of the United States. It has a 90.9% general partner interest in Essex Portfolio, L.P. As of September 4, 2008, the company owned interests in 133 communities comprising 26,790 units, as well as had 1,658 units in active development. The company has elected to be taxed as a REIT and would not be subject to federal income tax on the portion of its income that is distributed to stockholders. Essex Property Trust was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.
POST PROPERTIES INC (NYSE:PPS) - Post Properties, Inc., a real estate investments trust (REIT), together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, ownership, and management of multifamily apartment communities in the United States. As of December 31, 2007, the company owned 22,578 apartment units in 63 apartment communities, including 1,747 apartment units in 2 communities held in unconsolidated entities and 2,266 apartment units in 7 communities. It is also developing and selling 535 for-sale condominium homes in 4 communities and converting 349 apartment homes into for-sale condominium homes in 2 communities. The company primarily operates in Atlanta, Georgia; Dallas, Texas; Washington, D.C.; and Tampa, Florida metropolitan areas. Post Properties has elected to be taxed as REIT under the Internal Revenue Code and would not be subject to federal income taxes, if it distributes approximately 90% of its taxable income to its shareholders. The company was founded in 1971 and is based in Atlanta, Georgia.
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