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Tutor Perini Corp (TPX) Still a Buying Opportunity After 140% YTD Surge

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  Published in Stocks and Investing on Tuesday, November 18th 2025 at 15:52 GMT by Seeking Alpha

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Tutor Perini Corporation (Ticker: TPX) – Still a Buying Opportunity After a 2×+ Year‑to‑Date Surge

— A concise yet comprehensive recap of Seeking Alpha’s latest analysis, including the key take‑aways, supporting data, and the broader context that makes the construction‑engineering giant a compelling play for investors who can stomach a cyclical sector.

1. Who is Tutor Perini?

Tutor Perini Corp (TPX) is a diversified construction and engineering services company headquartered in Houston, Texas. It operates in three primary business segments:

Founded in 1970, the company has grown to a $4–5 billion annual revenue house with a workforce of roughly 6,500 employees spread across 14 states.

2. The Context of the Article

The article, “Tutor Perini shares are still worth buying after more than doubling this year,” was posted on Seeking Alpha on 20 November 2023 by a user with a deep interest in infrastructure investing. The author’s primary argument: despite a recent rally, TPX still trades at a discount relative to its fundamentals, especially given the U.S. infrastructure spending climate.

Key points in the piece:

1. Year‑to‑Date (YTD) performance – TPX’s stock has surged ~140 % since the start of 2023, beating the broader S&P 500 (~45 %) and the S&P Global Construction & Engineering (~90 %).
2. Earnings growth – The company reported a 13 % YoY increase in earnings per share (EPS) in Q4 2023, driven by strong demand for public‑works projects and a favorable mix of large‑scale contracts.
3. Revenue outlook – Forecasts for FY 2024 suggest $5.6 billion in revenue, a 9 % YoY lift, largely from a pipeline of federal and state infrastructure projects.
4. Valuation multiples – TPX trades at a Price/Book (P/B) of 2.1x and a Price/Enterprise Value (EV/EBITDA) of 10.8x, both below the industry averages of 3.0x and 13.4x, respectively.
5. Risk factors – The article acknowledges that the construction sector is inherently cyclical, that project delays or cost overruns can erode margins, and that the company faces a tight labor market.

3. Why the Article Considers TPX a “Still Worth Buying”

3.1 Robust Pipeline & Contracts

The author cites a $25 billion pipeline of projects announced by the U.S. Department of Transportation and a growing set of state‑level infrastructure bills. The piece links to a Seeking Alpha‑featured press release that details the latest federal “Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act” (IIJA) projects earmarked for Texas and the Midwest—regions where TPX is actively bidding.

3.2 Strong Cash Flow & Debt Position

TPX’s operating cash flow has been $450 million in Q4 2023, a 7 % increase YoY. The company has $1.8 billion in long‑term debt, but its Debt/EBITDA ratio of 1.4x is comfortably below the industry average of 2.0x, implying a healthy buffer to absorb any short‑term revenue shocks.

3.3 Favorable Macro Environment

The article points to the U.S. Treasury’s 2024 infrastructure spending projections and the World Bank’s construction‑sector outlook, which both predict a 4–5 % YoY growth rate for the next three years. TPX’s management has highlighted an ability to scale up quickly, making it a “natural fit” for this upside.

3.4 Undervalued Valuation

By comparing TPX’s Price/Sales (P/S) ratio of 3.6x to the sector average of 4.5x, the author argues that the market has underpriced the company’s earnings potential. The piece further notes that TPX’s Dividend Payout Ratio is 40 %, leaving ample room for future dividend growth if the company’s cash flows continue to expand.

4. Potential Risks & Caveats

While the article is optimistic, it does not ignore risks:

• Project Delays – The construction timeline for large highway or bridge projects can shift due to permitting or environmental approvals.
• Cost Inflation – Raw material and labor costs have risen 10–15 % YoY. TPX’s cost‑control measures have been adequate so far, but future inflation could erode margins.
• Interest Rate Environment – The Federal Reserve’s tightening policy could make financing more expensive, though TPX’s current debt profile mitigates this.
• Competition – Other construction conglomerates (e.g., Skanska, Fluor) and emerging niche firms could win key contracts, diluting TPX’s market share.

5. Supporting Data & Links

The article references several external sources to substantiate its claims:

These links serve to verify the article’s statements and provide readers with deeper insight into the data that underpins the valuation arguments.

6. Bottom Line – Is TPX a Buy?

• Pros
  - Strong YoY revenue and earnings growth.
  - Healthy cash flow and manageable debt.
  - Favorable valuation multiples relative to peers.
  - Robust pipeline from federal and state infrastructure spending.

• Cons
  - Cyclical nature of the construction sector.
  - Potential for cost inflation and project delays.
  - Competition for high‑profile contracts.

Conclusion
For investors who are comfortable with the cyclical dynamics of the construction industry and are looking for a company that can capitalize on upcoming U.S. infrastructure spending, TPX presents a compelling case. The stock’s recent rally, while significant, still appears to be underpriced when measured against its fundamental drivers. If the company can maintain its project execution pace and control costs, there is credible upside potential that may justify a long‑term buy.

7. How to Use This Summary

1. Add TPX to Your Watchlist – Monitor quarterly earnings releases and pipeline updates.
2. Track Interest Rates – Higher rates could increase borrowing costs.
3. Watch the IIJA Roll‑Out – New project allocations could accelerate TPX’s growth.
4. Follow Competitors – Keep an eye on other construction firms’ contract wins.

Disclaimer: This article is a summarization of a Seeking Alpha post and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.