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NVIDIA: The Single-Stock Pick for Long-Term Investors

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  Published in Stocks and Investing on Monday, December 22nd 2025 at 21:32 GMT by The Motley Fool

• 🞛 This publication is a summary or evaluation of another publication
• 🞛 This publication contains editorial commentary or bias from the source

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If I Could Only Buy and Hold a Single Stock This Week – A Summary

In a concise yet thorough piece published on December 22, 2025, The Motley Fool offers a clear‑cut recommendation for investors who are short on time but still want a meaningful, long‑term play in their portfolios. The author—who writes under the byline “Ben McCormick,” a long‑time contributor to the site—answers the all‑time question that drives many individual investors: “What single stock should I buy today and hold for the next decade?” The answer, according to McCormick, is NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA).

Below is a deeper dive into the logic, data, and broader context behind that recommendation, including all of the linked resources the author used to support his thesis.

1. Why NVIDIA?

McCormick begins by acknowledging that a single‑stock approach is “high‑risk, high‑reward” in the modern investment landscape, but it can also be a way to simplify a portfolio. He then lays out the key reasons why NVIDIA stands out:

2. Fundamental Analysis

McCormick backs up his narrative with a short snapshot of the company’s most recent quarterly numbers and a valuation check.

• Revenue & Growth: NVDA posted $30 billion in revenue in FY 2025, up 28 % YoY. The growth trajectory is driven primarily by data‑center and gaming segments.
• Margins: Gross margin stands at 70 %, which is one of the highest in the semiconductor industry, underscoring its pricing power.
• Cash Flow & Capital Structure: The company generated $8 billion in free cash flow last year and has a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 0.3—well below the industry average.

When it comes to valuation, McCormick adopts a blended approach: a discounted‑cash‑flow (DCF) model and a price‑earnings (P/E) multiple comparison. The DCF, calibrated to an 8 % discount rate and a 5‑year growth assumption of 12 % CAGR, values the company at roughly $280 per share. The current market price, hovering around $210 as of the article’s date, thus represents a ~33 % upside under these assumptions.

He also notes that the PEG ratio (price/earnings growth) is 2.1, which is slightly above the “fair value” benchmark of 1–2 but remains attractive given NVIDIA’s high‑growth profile.

3. Macro‑Context & Risks

The article acknowledges that buying a single high‑growth semiconductor can be a “ball‑park” strategy in the face of global macro uncertainties. Key risk factors include:

• Geopolitical Tensions: The U.S.–China trade frictions may continue to affect NVIDIA’s supply chain and market access in China—a significant region for both gaming and data‑center sales. The author links to a CNBC piece on U.S. export controls on semiconductor technology.
• Chip Shortage & Capacity Constraints: Though NVIDIA has managed to navigate the recent global shortage, the article warns that capacity constraints could slow growth for a few years. A link is included to a Reuters article on the global chip supply crunch.
• Valuation Pressures: The tech sector as a whole is experiencing elevated valuations, and a correction could hit high‑growth names first. An Investopedia article on market valuation trends is linked for readers who want a deeper dive.
• Competitive Dynamics: AMD, Intel, and emerging fabless players (e.g., Meta, Apple) are ramping up GPU development. The article notes that NVIDIA’s “technological moat” is currently strong but not invincible.

McCormick stresses that the recommended “hold” period is 5–10 years, allowing for these short‑term headwinds to dissipate while the company continues to benefit from long‑term AI and data‑center trends.

4. How to Get Started

The author advises a simple approach for individual investors:

1. Open a brokerage account that offers fractional shares—this allows buying the stock with as little as $1,000 without incurring large position‑size risk.
2. Add to the portfolio every quarter (or annually) to take advantage of dollar‑cost averaging.
3. Re‑evaluate every 12–18 months: Monitor the company’s earnings releases, macro news, and sector trends to confirm that the thesis remains intact.

He links to a Fool tutorial titled “How to Buy a Stock in a Fractional Shares Account,” which provides step‑by‑step instructions and explains how to maintain a disciplined buy‑and‑hold approach.

5. Conclusion

In a landscape where investors are bombarded with “pick‑the‑best‑stock” stories, McCormick’s recommendation for NVIDIA offers a balance of rigor and practicality. The company’s dominance in AI, data‑center, and gaming, coupled with solid financial health, provides a compelling narrative for a long‑term holder.

The article’s strength lies in its concise use of data, the inclusion of linked primary sources (earnings releases, macro‑news, and valuation guides), and the realistic framing of risk versus reward. For anyone who wants a single, high‑growth position to add to a diversified portfolio—or even a portfolio that’s solely focused on a “single‑stock” strategy—NVIDIA appears, according to McCormick, to be the best candidate for the job.

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(All external links referenced above are sourced from the original article and are intended for context; they are not provided here due to the nature of this summary.)