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Applovin Targets $1,000 Share Price by 2028: Forbes Speculation

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  Published in Stocks and Investing on Wednesday, November 12th 2025 at 12:15 GMT by Forbes

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Applovin’s All‑Out “$1,000” Play – A Deep Dive into the 2025 Forecast

In a bold entry on Forbes’ “Great Speculations” section, analyst‑style writer Alex Reyes projects that Applovin Corp. (NASDAQ: APPL) could sky‑rocket to a $1,000 price‑to‑share by the end of 2028. The article blends a granular look at the company’s fundamentals with a speculative, high‑growth valuation model. Below is a concise yet thorough summary of the article’s key points, the supporting data it draws on, and the risks and catalysts the author flags as critical to the upside narrative.

1. Company Snapshot: Who is Applovin?

Applovin is a mobile‑ad‑tech powerhouse that operates an end‑to‑end ecosystem for app developers. Its flagship product, the Applovin SDK, allows developers to monetize their apps through in‑app purchases, video ads, and rewarded ads. The company has expanded into app‑discovery with its Applovin Max platform, a unified marketplace that aggregates dozens of ad networks, giving developers higher fill rates and revenue. In 2024, Applovin’s revenue grew to $1.27 B, a 33 % YoY increase, while EBITDA margin expanded to 28 %, up from 22 % in 2023.

The article references the company’s Q4 2024 earnings release (link in the Forbes article) to underline the robust cash‑flow generation and a growing free‑cash‑flow runway that will underwrite future expansion.

2. The Growth Engine

Reyes charts several drivers that could fuel the upside:

The article cites a Mobile Ad‑Tech Market Size report (linked) that projects the industry will grow from $35 B in 2023 to $55 B by 2028, implying a 25 % CAGR that Applovin can capture through its scale advantage.

3. Competitive Landscape

Applovin faces competition on two fronts:

1. Ad‑Network Dominants – Google AdMob and Facebook’s Audience Network continue to eat market share. Applovin counters by offering higher fill rates and a developer‑friendly platform.
2. Vertical‑Specific Platforms – Unity Ads, Vungle, and ironSource target game developers. Applovin’s unified Max marketplace is presented as a superior alternative that aggregates all vertical players into one interface.

The article uses a competitor‑multiple table (link included) that shows Applovin trading at 25x EV/Revenue versus 19x for AdMob, suggesting the market may be undervaluing Applovin’s growth potential.

4. Valuation Methodology

Reyes presents a two‑pronged valuation approach:

Adding a “growth premium” for the next five years (based on 25 % CAGR in revenue and 15 % EBITDA margin expansion) yields a target price of $1,000. The premium is justified by the author’s view that the industry’s tailwinds, coupled with Applovin’s market capture, will push the multiples higher over time.

The article’s DCF waterfall is linked, allowing readers to see the sensitivity of the valuation to changes in revenue growth or discount rates.

5. Risks – The “Black Holes” of the Play

Reyes acknowledges that the upside story is not risk‑free. Key concerns include:

A link to a Forbes piece on Apple’s App Store policy shift is cited to illustrate how regulatory headwinds could materially affect revenue streams.

6. Catalysts – The Big “Go‑Getters”

The article highlights several events that could act as catalysts for the upside:

1. Acquisition of a Smaller Ad‑Tech Startup – rumored to be in talks, would bolster Ad‑Analytics capabilities.
2. Launch of the Max Marketplace in India – tapping a 500 M smartphone user base.
3. Quarter‑End Revenue Surge – Applovin’s Q2 2025 results could surpass 2024 revenue, boosting sentiment.
4. Strategic Tie‑Up with Unity – deep integration of analytics APIs could increase developer stickiness.

The author links to a Unity partnership announcement that showcases the potential cross‑sale opportunities.

7. Bottom Line

Reyes concludes that while the $1,000 target price is “extremely aggressive,” the confluence of robust revenue growth, strong margin expansion, and a favorable market tailwind makes it a plausible long‑term horizon for savvy investors who can stomach the short‑term volatility. He recommends a “buy‑and‑hold” stance for those who are comfortable with a high‑growth, high‑risk profile and are willing to hold through potential regulatory and competitive headwinds.

Takeaway

The Forbes article is a quintessential high‑growth spec, blending rigorous financial analysis with a dose of optimism. For readers looking to understand whether Applovin’s $1,000 target is realistic—or merely a bullish fan‑fiction—the article offers enough data points and links to perform their own due diligence. By scrutinizing the company’s fundamentals, market dynamics, and risk factors, investors can decide if Applovin’s potential upside warrants a seat at the table.