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MAR, OEH, WOLF, CHH, HOT, RLH, Hotels - Motels Stocks Overvalued

^{Published on 2011-04-12 05:01:06 - WOPRAI}
 

April 12, 2011/ M2 PRESSWIRE / BUYINS.NET / http://www.squeezetrigger.com is monitoring the Hotels - Motels sector and these stocks are the most undervalued as of today. MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL-CL A (NYSE:MAR), ORIENT EXPRESS HOTELS LTD -A (NYSE:OEH), GREAT WOLF RESORTS INC (NASDAQ:WOLF), CHOICE HOTELS INTL INC (NYSE:CHH), STARWOOD HOTELS & RESORTS (NYSE:HOT), RED LION HOTELS CORP (NYSE:RLH) are all expected to go Down as they are Overvalued according to industry standard valuation metrics. The valuation model employs a three-factor approach to stock valuation using fundamental variables--the company's trailing 12-month Earnings-Per-Share (EPS), the analyst consensus estimate of the company's forecasted 12-month EPS, and the 30-year Treasury yield--to create a highly accurate reflection of a company's fair value.

The chart below displays the projected Fair Value and Valuation discount/premium of the most undervalued stocks in the highlighted industry group:

     Symbol     Company Name                        Last Close     Fair Value     Valuation                   Industry               
     MAR        MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL-CL A         $34.18         $33.48         20.70% Overvalued           Hotels - Motels        
     OEH        ORIENT EXPRESS HOTELS LTD -A        $11.60         $7.67          20.70% Overvalued           Hotels - Motels        
     WOLF       GREAT WOLF RESORTS INC              $2.12          $1.49          20.70% Overvalued           Hotels - Motels        
     CHH        CHOICE HOTELS INTL INC              $38.49         $31.63         20.70% Overvalued           Hotels - Motels        
     HOT        STARWOOD HOTELS & RESORTS           $56.42         $54.81         20.70% Overvalued           Hotels - Motels        
     RLH        RED LION HOTELS CORP                $8.14          $7.99          20.70% Overvalued           Hotels - Motels        

Here are some of the variables that are utilized when calculating the Fair Market Valuation of a stock: Long-run EPS growth rate, Duration of Business-growth-cycle, Volatility of EPS growth rate, Systematic or beta risk of the firm, Correlation between the firm's EPS and the interest rate environment, EPS growth volatility, Dividend payout ratio, Buffer earnings, Interest rate related criteria: Interest rate (30 year yield) long-run level, Duration of interest rate cycle, Interest rate volatility. The Fair Market Valuation uses 12-month historic and forecasted EPS values and the current 30-year treasury yield as primary determinants. When calculating risk/return values such as the Sharpe ratio, the historic periods used are five years.

Some expected results of the Valuation Model are: the valuation of a stock increases in a declining interest rate environment. Increasing current and/or projected EPS will produce a higher Valuation. While long-term EPS growth would produce a corresponding long-term Valuation increase, concomitant long-term interest rate increases would offset EPS growth and depress the Valuation. The shorter a company's own business cycle, the higher its stock Valuation will be.

MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL-CL A (NYSE:MAR) - Marriott International, Inc. operates and franchises hotels and related lodging facilities worldwide. It operates and franchises hotels and resorts under various brands, including Marriott, JW Marriott, Renaissance, Autograph Collection, Courtyard, Fairfield Inn & Suites, SpringHill Suites, Residence Inn, TownePlace Suites, Marriott ExecuStay, Marriott Executive Apartments, The Ritz-Carlton, Bulgari, and EDITION. The company also develops, operates, markets, and sells timeshare interval, fractional ownership, and residential properties under the brand names of Marriott Vacation Club, The Ritz-Carlton Destination Club, The Ritz-Carlton Residences, and Grand Residences by Marriott. In addition, the company operates Marriott ExecuStay, which provides furnished corporate apartments; and Marriott Executive Apartments that offers temporary housing for business executives, as well as operates Marriott conference centers. As of December 31, 2010, it operated or franchised 3,545 lodging properties with 618,104 rooms, including 3,737 units of home and condominium products, as well as provided 2,043 furnished corporate housing rental units. The company was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland.

ORIENT EXPRESS HOTELS LTD -A (NYSE:OEH) - Orient-Express Hotels Ltd. and its subsidiaries operate principally in the leisure hospitality market. It owns and invests in individual deluxe hotels, restaurants, tourist trains, and river/canal cruise businesses. As of January 31, 2010, the company owned and managed 50 luxury hotel, restaurant, tourist train, and river cruise properties in 24 countries. It also engages in the real estate and residential property development. Orient-Express Hotels was founded in 1976 and is based in Hamilton, Bermuda.

GREAT WOLF RESORTS INC (NASDAQ:WOLF) - Great Wolf Resorts, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a family entertainment resort company in North America. It owns, licenses, operates, and develops family resorts featuring indoor waterparks and family-oriented entertainment activities. The companys resorts features a combination of amenities, including themed restaurants, ice cream shop and confectionery, full-service adult spa, kid spa, game arcade, gift shop, miniature golf, interactive game attraction, family tech center, and meeting space. It operates and licenses its resorts under the Great Wolf Lodge and Blue Harbor Resort brand names. As of December 31, 2009, the company operated 11 Great Wolf Lodge resorts and 1 Blue Harbor resort located in Wisconsin Dells, Wisconsin; Sandusky, Ohio; Traverse City, Michigan; Kansas City, Kansas; Sheboygan, Wisconsin; Williamsburg, Virginia; Pocono Mountains, Pennsylvania; Niagara Falls, Ontario; Mason, Ohio; Grapevine, Texas; Grand Mound, Washington; and Concord, North Carolina. Great Wolf Resorts, Inc. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Madison, Wisconsin.

CHOICE HOTELS INTL INC (NYSE:CHH) - Choice Hotels International, Inc. and subsidiaries operate as a hotel franchisor worldwide. The company franchises lodging properties under the brand names of Comfort Inn, Comfort Suites, Quality, Clarion, Sleep Inn, Econo Lodge, Rodeway Inn, MainStay Suites, Suburban Extended Stay Hotel, Cambria Suites, and Ascend Collection. As of December 31, 2009, it operated 6,021 open hotels representing 487,410 rooms; and 843 hotels representing 66,585 rooms under construction, awaiting conversion, or approved for development in 49 states, the District of Columbia; and 40 countries and other territories. It was formerly known as Choice Hotels Franchising, Inc. and changed its name to Choice Hotels International, Inc. The company was founded in 1981 and is based in Silver Spring, Maryland.

STARWOOD HOTELS & RESORTS (NYSE:HOT) - Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a hotel and leisure company worldwide. It primarily operates luxury and upscale full service hotels, resorts, retreats, and residences. The company also engages in the development, ownership, and operation of vacation ownership resorts; marketing and sale of vacation ownership interests in the resorts; and provision of financing to customers who purchase such interests. In addition, it develops, markets, and sells residential units at mixed use hotel projects. The company operates hotels and resorts under the brand names of St. Regis, The Luxury Collection, W, Westin, Le Meridien, Sheraton, Four Points, Aloft, and Element. As of December 31, 2010, its hotel portfolio included 1,027 owned, leased, managed, and franchised hotels with approximately 302,000 rooms, as well as owned 23 vacation ownership resorts and residential properties in the United States, Mexico, and the Bahamas. The company was founded in 1969 and is based in White Plains, New York.

RED LION HOTELS CORP (NYSE:RLH) - Red Lion Hotels Corporation, a hospitality and leisure company, engages in the ownership, operation and franchising of midscale, full, select, and limited service hotels under the Red Lion brand. As of December 31, 2009, Red Lion system of hotels contained 45 hotels, of which 19 were wholly-owned, 13 were leased, and 13 were franchised located in 8 states and 1 Canadian province. It also offers entertainment services, such as event ticketing, and the promotion and presentation of various entertainment productions. In addition, the company provides ticketing inventory management systems, call center services, and outlet/electronic channel distribution for event locations. Further, it has a direct ownership interest in a retail mall, as well as involves in real estate investments. The company was formerly known as WestCoast Hospitality Corporation and changed its name to Red Lion Hotels Corporation in September 2005. Red Lion Hotels Corporation was founded in 1937 and is based in Spokane, Washington.

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