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NVIDIA and Shopify Project Double-Digit Growth to 2030

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  Published in Stocks and Investing on Tuesday, November 18th 2025 at 10:10 GMT by The Motley Fool

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Summarizing “2 Growth Stocks That Can Double by 2030” (The Motley Fool, 18 Nov 2025)

The Motley Fool’s November 18 2025 feature titled “2 Growth Stocks That Can Double by 2030” is a forward‑looking investment pitch that zeroes in on two high‑growth equities it believes could see their share prices rise to twice their current level by the end of the decade. The article blends company‑specific fundamentals with macro‑economic expectations, and it offers readers a clear step‑by‑step assessment of why each pick is “high‑conviction” in the long‑run. Below is a comprehensive 500‑plus‑word synthesis of the piece, including the secondary sources it cites for context.

1. Overview: The Premise and Structure

The article opens with a brief “big picture” framework: the U.S. economy is projected to rebound from the low‑growth, high‑inflation environment of the early 2020s, with a steady acceleration in technology‑driven sectors. It argues that investors who want a “double‑digit” upside by 2030 should look to companies that are not only innovating but are also in the middle of a large, durable tailwind. The author notes that the “double‑by‑2030” rule is not a guarantee but a target based on growth rate, profitability trajectory, and relative valuation.

After the macro backdrop, the article introduces two specific growth stocks: NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) and Shopify Inc. (SHOP). It justifies each with a combination of quantitative data (earnings per share, free‑cash‑flow growth, price‑to‑earnings, price‑to‑free‑cash‑flow ratios) and qualitative arguments (market leadership, product pipeline, regulatory environment). Each section ends with a “Risk Checklist” and a recommendation rating (e.g., “Buy”, “Hold”, “Cautious”) that reflects the author's confidence level.

2. NVIDIA: “The GPU Powerhouse in the AI Era”

2.1 Why NVIDIA?

The article highlights that NVIDIA’s core product—graphics processing units (GPUs)—has become the engine of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning workloads. The company’s AI portfolio now includes data‑center GPUs, inference accelerators, and software frameworks (CUDA, cuDNN). The author points out that as of Q4 2025, NVIDIA’s data‑center revenue accounted for roughly 48 % of total revenue, up from 27 % in 2020. That shift is evidence of a “deep‑learning shift” that the author estimates will double its data‑center revenue by 2030.

2.2 Key Metrics

• Revenue Growth: NVIDIA has posted 4‑year CAGR of 37 % (FY 2022–FY 2025). The article projects a 25 % CAGR through 2030 based on the AI tailwind and the company’s expanding “GPU‑for‑everything” strategy.
• Profitability: Gross margins have improved from 66 % to 71 % in 2025, and operating margins are now 35 %. The company is expected to maintain operating margins above 30 % through 2030, fueled by higher‑margin data‑center sales.
• Valuation: The price‑to‑earnings (P/E) ratio sits at 60×, which the article acknowledges is high, but compares it to historical “high‑growth” peers like Tesla and Amazon that also trade at elevated multiples. The author frames the valuation as justified by a projected P/E of 45× by 2030, driven by a revenue multiple of 30× and improved earnings.
• Cash Flow: Free cash flow (FCF) margin is 33 % and has grown from 18 % in 2020. The company’s strong FCF supports future acquisitions and R&D investment.

2.3 Drivers to Doubling

• AI Adoption: Gartner projects that 80 % of enterprise AI workloads will rely on GPUs by 2030.
• Automotive & Edge: NVIDIA’s automotive AI platform (Drive PX) and edge‑AI chips for IoT are expected to double in revenue contribution by 2030.
• Ecosystem: The company’s software stack and developer community give it a moat, discouraging new entrants.

2.4 Risks

• Supply Chain: Semiconductor supply constraints could limit GPU availability. The article cites a recent Reuters piece about US‑China trade tensions affecting raw material sourcing.
• Competition: AMD, Intel, and emerging AI‑focused startups are closing the performance gap.
• Regulatory: Potential AI regulation could restrict use cases, impacting demand.

2.5 Recommendation

The author concludes with a “Buy” rating for NVIDIA, citing that the upside potential (double by 2030) outweighs the valuation premium, especially for long‑term holders.

3. Shopify: “E‑commerce’s Platform Powerhouse”

3.1 Why Shopify?

Shopify is positioned as the leading e‑commerce platform, enabling merchants of all sizes to create online stores. The article stresses Shopify’s multi‑vertical reach: B2C storefronts, wholesale APIs, and integrated payment systems. As of 2025, Shopify’s merchants processed $450 billion in gross merchandise volume (GMV) — up 35 % YoY. The company’s Shopify Payments and Shopify Shipping ecosystems increase stickiness.

3.2 Key Metrics

• Revenue Growth: Shopify’s revenue CAGR of 45 % over FY 2022–FY 2025 is driven largely by subscription and merchant‑success fees. The author projects a 30 % CAGR through 2030 as e‑commerce penetration in emerging markets accelerates.
• Profitability: Gross margin stands at 65 % due to high software revenue, with a net margin of 12 %. The company’s shift from low‑margin hardware to high‑margin software is expected to lift net margin to 18 % by 2030.
• Valuation: Current P/E ratio is 70×; the author argues that the high multiple reflects expectations of a “store‑building revolution” and compares it to historical valuations of PayPal and Square.
• Cash Flow: FCF margin has risen from 5 % in 2020 to 12 % in 2025, and the company has a solid balance sheet with $4 billion in cash and a manageable debt load.

3.3 Drivers to Doubling

• Global Expansion: Shopify is expanding into LATAM, APAC, and EMEA, tapping into markets with growing internet penetration.
• New Services: Shopify’s “Shopify Fulfillment Network” and “Shopify Capital” are expected to become significant revenue sources.
• Marketplace Effect: The platform’s integration of dropshipping and third‑party marketplace features is creating network effects that drive stickiness.

3.4 Risks

• Competition: Amazon’s own “Amazon Storefront” and Google’s “Merchant Center” present direct competition. The article cites a Bloomberg report on Amazon’s plans to expand its marketplace services.
• Economic Downturn: A recession could reduce merchant spend on premium Shopify features.
• Regulation: Data privacy laws (e.g., GDPR, CCPA) could increase compliance costs for merchants and Shopify alike.

3.5 Recommendation

The piece ends with a “Hold” recommendation, citing the high valuation and the risk that the e‑commerce growth may plateau earlier than expected. However, the author highlights that a “buy‑the‑dip” approach could still capture upside if the company continues to expand its global footprint.

4. Secondary Sources and Contextual Links

The article pulls in several external links to strengthen its arguments:

1. Gartner AI Adoption Forecast – Provides data on GPU usage across AI workloads, supporting NVIDIA’s narrative.
2. Reuters on US‑China Semiconductor Trade Tensions – Contextualizes supply‑chain risk for NVIDIA.
3. Bloomberg on Amazon’s Marketplace Expansion – Frames Shopify’s competitive environment.
4. Financial Times on E‑commerce Growth in Emerging Markets – Offers macro context for Shopify’s international strategy.
5. Statista on Gross Merchandise Volume – Gives up‑to‑date GMV figures for Shopify.

These links serve as evidence points and enable readers to verify the claims made by the authors. They also illustrate the article’s comprehensive research approach, combining proprietary analysis with publicly available industry reports.

5. Final Takeaway

In sum, the Motley Fool’s “2 Growth Stocks That Can Double by 2030” presents a classic long‑term growth thesis: NVIDIA, the AI‑GPU leader, and Shopify, the e‑commerce platform pioneer, have the fundamentals and growth engines to potentially double their share prices by 2030. The article balances optimism with caution, providing concrete metrics, historical comparisons, and risk assessments for each stock. While the valuations are high, the authors justify them with projected growth rates and industry tailwinds. Investors interested in high‑growth technology are encouraged to keep an eye on these picks, but the piece also urges due diligence, especially around supply‑chain risks, competitive threats, and regulatory headwinds.