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Stock Market Today: As Nifty sinks below 9-day range, Anil Singhvi highlights key market triggers

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  Published in Stocks and Investing on Monday, November 3rd 2025 at 11:43 GMT by Zee Business

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Nifty Hovers Between 25,700 and 26,100 as Market Awaits RBI Decision and Global Rate Hikes

The Indian equity market opened on a cautious note on Thursday, with the Nifty 50 index trading in a tight band between 25,700 and 26,100. Investors appeared on tenterhooks, weighing a mix of domestic inflation data, the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) forthcoming policy meeting, and the ongoing impact of global rate hikes. Anil Singhvi, a senior market strategist at Inversis, highlighted several key market triggers that are likely to shape the market’s trajectory over the next few days.

1. RBI Policy Outlook

The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to convene next week, a decision that will be closely watched by the market. The central bank has maintained a neutral stance in its last meeting, keeping the repo rate at 6.50% while signalling that it remains ready to tighten if inflationary pressures persist. Singhvi noted that the RBI’s focus appears to be on striking a balance between supporting growth and curbing price increases, especially as India’s headline inflation has hovered around 6.75% in the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.

“RBI is likely to be prudent. If the data suggests a cooling of inflation, we could see the possibility of an easing in the repo rate. On the other hand, any sign of rising inflation might push the MPC to tighten,” Singhvi said. The market’s sensitivity to the RBI’s decision is reflected in the rupee’s volatility against the U.S. dollar, which has seen a moderate depreciation in the past week, further contributing to uncertainty in the equity market.

2. Global Rate Hikes and US Inflation

The global economic backdrop is dominated by the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. In March, the Fed raised its target range for the federal funds rate to 5.25%-5.50%, and it is expected to maintain a hawkish stance until the end of the year. This dovetailing of global rate hikes has pushed risk sentiment down, leading to a decline in foreign portfolio flows into emerging markets. Singhvi pointed out that “the tightening in the U.S. has a spill‑over effect on commodity prices and the rupee, which in turn affects market sentiment.”

The United States has released its latest inflation data, showing a slower rise in the consumer price index, which may offer a window for the Fed to hold rates steady. However, any signs of a sudden uptick in inflation could prompt another round of hikes, further dampening risk appetite.

3. Domestic Inflation and Economic Data

India’s inflation figures have been a focal point for traders. The most recent CPI report indicated a slight moderation in inflation rates, which is a positive sign for the RBI’s mandate. Still, the core inflation rate remains above the 4% medium‑term target, leaving room for the central bank to act. Singhvi explained that “inflation is the king in this context. The RBI’s policy direction will largely be dictated by how these numbers evolve over the next couple of months.”

Alongside inflation, other macroeconomic data such as GDP growth, manufacturing output, and retail sales will also influence market direction. The economy is expected to grow at a modest 6.7% in the fiscal year 2024‑25, but any surprise in the data could shift the market’s risk sentiment.

4. Corporate Earnings and Sector Dynamics

Corporate earnings are a crucial driver for equity markets, and several large-cap firms are expected to report earnings in the coming weeks. The technology and banking sectors have been particularly volatile due to regulatory scrutiny and interest‑rate sensitivity. Singhvi noted that “the tech sector is currently trading near a 52‑week high, which suggests a potential pullback if the broader market turns negative. The banking sector, meanwhile, is under pressure from higher interest rates and potential loan defaults.”

In the retail and FMCG space, companies are benefiting from robust consumer demand and higher disposable incomes, which has been reflected in their stock performance. Sector‑specific triggers, such as a new regulatory directive or a change in tax policy, could also create additional volatility in these segments.

5. Technical Levels and Market Sentiment

On the technical front, the Nifty is approaching the 26,500 level, a significant resistance zone that has tested the index twice in the last month. The 25,700 support level remains intact, but a break below it would trigger a bearish scenario. Singhvi emphasized that “the market is currently in a consolidation phase, and any major technical break could lead to a swift market shift.”

Investor sentiment has been muted, with the global equity markets experiencing a sell‑off following the announcement of the Fed’s interest‑rate decisions. The rupee has weakened by roughly 1.5% against the dollar in the past week, further dampening risk appetite. However, some traders remain optimistic, citing potential monetary easing by the RBI if inflation shows signs of cooling.

6. Outlook

Looking ahead, the market appears poised for a cautious approach. The key variables will be the RBI’s policy decision, the trajectory of global rates, and India’s inflation and growth data. If the RBI opts for a dovish stance, the rupee could gain strength, potentially lifting the Nifty. Conversely, a hawkish stance or any uptick in global rates could push the market lower, particularly if corporate earnings fail to meet expectations.

The market participants are advised to remain vigilant, monitor upcoming data releases, and adjust their portfolios accordingly. While short‑term volatility is likely, the underlying fundamentals of the Indian economy and its monetary policy remain robust, offering a foundation for medium‑term upside if the current uncertainties are managed.

Key Takeaways

• RBI Policy Meeting: The forthcoming MPC meeting could lead to either tightening or easing depending on inflation data.
• Global Rate Hikes: The Fed’s continued hawkish stance and rising global rates are dampening risk sentiment.
• Inflation Data: India’s CPI shows moderation, but core inflation remains above the target.
• Sector Dynamics: Tech and banking face headwinds; FMCG and retail show resilience.
• Technical Levels: The Nifty is approaching a key resistance at 26,500, with a support at 25,700.

Investors are advised to monitor these triggers closely and remain adaptable to the evolving market environment.