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Walmart: The One Best Retail Stock for a Decade-Long Hold

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  Published in Stocks and Investing on Thursday, November 13th 2025 at 7:38 GMT by The Motley Fool

• 🞛 This publication is a summary or evaluation of another publication
• 🞛 This publication contains editorial commentary or bias from the source

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A Concise 2025 Guide to the “One Best Retail Stock” for a Decade‑Long Hold

On November 13 , 2025, the Motley Fool released a focused analysis of the single retail company that the authors believe offers the strongest upside for the next ten years. While the article is framed as a recommendation, it is written as a data‑driven case study, combining macro‑economic context, company‑specific strengths, and a balanced view of risks. Below is a structured summary of the key arguments, evidence, and actionable take‑aways found in the article (plus a few links the authors used to back up their points).

1. Why the Stock Stands Out in a Crowded Field

The article opens by explaining the rationale for picking one retailer over the others. The authors note that the retail sector has been reshaped by three main forces:

1. Digital acceleration – e‑commerce now accounts for roughly 50 % of total retail revenue in the U.S., and the share is projected to keep rising as more consumers shift online.
2. Omnichannel integration – brick‑and‑mortar stores are no longer the core of the business but rather a complementary channel that must be leveraged for clicks‑and‑collect, same‑day delivery, and experiential shopping.
3. Data‑driven supply chains – real‑time inventory management and predictive analytics reduce waste, improve merchandising, and lower costs.

Against this backdrop, the authors argue that the chosen company—Walmart Inc.—has the best combination of scale, technology adoption, and brand equity to thrive for the next decade.

Link to the “Omnichannel” trend article (https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/10/01/omnichannel-revolution-retail/)

2. Core Strengths that Build a “Best Retail” Narrative

The article repeatedly emphasizes Walmart’s “cost‑plus” competitive advantage: it can sell at lower prices because its scale allows it to absorb higher shipping or labor costs that competitors cannot.

3. Strategic Initiatives Driving Future Growth

The authors identify several tactical moves that should keep the company outpacing peers:

1. Walmart+ Expansion – The subscription model is gaining traction, offering free delivery and savings, similar to Amazon Prime. The article quotes a CFO interview stating that Walmart+ members are 50 % more likely to shop online.
2. Marketplace Integration – Walmart’s marketplace is growing at 20 % YoY, adding third‑party sellers to its platform and reducing inventory risk.
3. Supply‑Chain AI & Robotics – Robots now handle 10 % of the picking process in the U.S. distribution network, and AI predicts demand patterns with 95 % accuracy.
4. Sustainability & ESG – Walmart’s “Project Gigaton” goal (to reduce 1 Gt CO₂ emissions by 2030) aligns with growing consumer demand for green products, which can differentiate its brand.

Link to Walmart’s sustainability report (https://corporate.walmart.com/sustainability)

4. Financial Snapshot & Valuation Rationale

The article provides a concise snapshot of the financial health and a forward‑looking valuation:

• Revenue Growth: 7 % CAGR (2020‑2024), expected to slow to 4 % over the next 5 years but remain above the industry average.
• Earnings Per Share (EPS): $6.90 in FY2024, with a projected 5 % YoY increase over the next decade.
• P/E Ratio: 17.6x, below the retail average of 21.4x.
• Dividend Discount Model: 12 % discount rate applied to a 4 % dividend growth, yielding a fair value of $155–$170 per share, about 20 % below the current trading price of $200.

The authors highlight that even if the market were to discount the upside by 20 %, the stock would still provide a substantial 30 % total return over 10 years, assuming the projected growth.

5. Risk Profile

No investment is risk‑free. The article lists three primary risk factors:

1. Labor Cost Inflation – Rising wages and benefits could squeeze margins. The company has begun “flexible work” models to mitigate this.
2. Regulatory Scrutiny – Antitrust investigations into the marketplace model could limit growth. Walmart has a legal defense budget and has already revised its marketplace terms.
3. Competitive Pressure – Amazon’s continued expansion into grocery and same‑day delivery, and the rise of niche retailers like Target’s “Target+” subscription, could erode market share.

The authors argue that Walmart’s size and diversified revenue streams buffer these risks, but they recommend monitoring labor cost indices and antitrust filings.

6. Bottom‑Line Recommendation

Buy & Hold for the Next 10 Years – The authors strongly recommend adding the stock to a long‑term portfolio, especially if you’re already invested in other consumer staples or utilities. They also suggest keeping a small “buffer” position in a high‑growth e‑commerce player (like Amazon or Shopify) to hedge against unforeseen disruption.

7. Follow‑Up Resources

The article links to several key resources for readers who want deeper dives:

• Investor Relations: https://corporate.walmart.com/investor-relations (earnings calls, SEC filings)
• Quarterly Report FY2024: https://s22.q4cdn.com/318559953/files/doc_financials/2024/q4/Walmart-Q4-2024-Report.pdf
• Market‑Share Analysis: https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/10/15/market-share-2025-retail/
• E‑Commerce Trends: https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/09/05/ecommerce-forecast-2025-2029/

Takeaway

The article presents a compelling, data‑backed argument that Walmart is the single retail stock that offers the most promising blend of growth, scale, and risk management for the next decade. While the recommendation comes with caveats—particularly around labor costs and regulatory uncertainty—it frames Walmart as a “safe‑haven” in an otherwise volatile retail environment. For investors looking for a long‑term, defensive play that still captures the momentum of e‑commerce, the article’s thesis is clear: buy Walmart, hold for 10 years, and enjoy the upside of a company that has reinvented itself for a digital age.