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How will markets open today? GIFT Nifty lower, Asian markets, crude oil and 7 cues at this hour

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  Published in Stocks and Investing on Monday, September 15th 2025 at 22:52 GMT by The Financial Express
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How the Markets Will Open Today: Nifty 50 Likely to Open Lower Amid Global Cues and Rising Oil Prices

Financial Express, 15 September 2025

Indian equity markets are set for a cautious start on Tuesday, with the benchmark Nifty 50 expected to open in the red as global equities slide, crude‑oil prices rise, and a handful of key macro‑cues weigh on investor sentiment. The article from the Financial Express, which we have followed up with links to related coverage, outlines the factors likely to drive the market and provides a concise technical snapshot of the Nifty and the broader index.

1. Global Landscape: Asian Markets in the Red, Oil on the Rise

The opening line of the piece states that the Nifty 50 will likely open lower than the previous session, mirroring the performance of other major Asian markets that have dipped on Thursday. The Asian markets were dragged down by a mix of concerns about a slowdown in China’s manufacturing output, widening trade tensions, and a cautious stance by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) on interest‑rate policy. The article notes that the Shanghai Composite and the Tokyo Nikkei both slipped, with the Nikkei falling 0.6 % and the Shanghai Composite down 0.4 %.

Crude‑oil prices have been on the rise this week, with Brent futures trading above $86 a barrel after a breakout from the $80 support level. The Financial Express piece cites a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that highlighted a tightening supply outlook due to OPEC+ production cuts, a factor that is feeding the upward momentum in oil prices. The article links to a separate piece that analyses the potential impact of the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for the end of the month, underscoring that any announcement about future output cuts could push oil prices even higher.

2. Domestic Drivers: RBI Signals and Fiscal Policy

The Indian central bank’s policy stance also comes under scrutiny. While the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has not yet announced any new rate changes, it has reiterated that it will continue to monitor the inflationary environment closely. The article references a previous RBI statement that hinted at a possible tightening of credit conditions if inflation remains above the 4 % medium‑term target. In the meantime, the RBI has kept the repo rate at 6.5 % and the reverse repo at 6.25 %, a level that has supported the rupee in the face of a stronger U.S. dollar.

Fiscal policy is another backdrop for the market. The article links to a commentary on the budgetary proposal for the fiscal year 2025‑26, which highlights a projected fiscal deficit of 3.8 % of GDP. While the deficit is within the targeted range, the commentary notes that the fiscal tightening is expected to add to the overall pressure on equity markets, especially on sectors that are highly leveraged.

3. Macro‑Cues: US CPI, Fed Minutes, and Global Sentiment

On the macro‑economic front, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August is due to be released tomorrow. The article quotes economists who anticipate a modest rise in the CPI index, which could keep the Fed’s hawkish stance in place. This is consistent with the commentary in a linked piece that discusses how the Fed’s policy meeting on Thursday is likely to emphasize “gradual tightening” and “forward guidance” that will weigh on risk sentiment worldwide.

In addition, the European Central Bank (ECB) will also release its policy minutes. The Financial Express article references a piece that outlines how the ECB’s decision to keep its key rates unchanged could dampen European equities, which in turn could ripple across to Asian markets.

4. Technical Outlook for the Nifty 50

The article provides a succinct technical analysis of the Nifty 50. It notes that the index is currently hovering near a 22‑week moving average that is at the 21,400 level. The key support levels for the Nifty are identified at 21,300 (the 50‑day moving average) and 21,200 (the 100‑day moving average). If the market dips below 21,200, it could trigger a “sell‑off” in the mid‑cap and small‑cap stocks, which historically carry higher volatility.

Resistance levels are outlined at 21,600 (the 9‑day moving average) and 21,800 (the 20‑day moving average). The article links to a chart analysis that shows a bullish pattern forming in the Nifty’s 5‑minute chart, but warns that a breakdown below 21,200 could put the market into a more bearish stance.

5. Investor Sentiment and Market Volatility

Investor sentiment appears subdued, with the Volatility Index (VIX) hovering at 14.6, a modest rise from the previous session’s 14.2. The article cites a linked piece that attributes the rise to the uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s policy path and the ongoing global supply chain disruptions. The linked commentary on market volatility notes that any sudden uptick in the VIX could trigger stop‑loss orders, further driving down market prices.

6. Bottom‑Line Takeaway

To sum up, the article paints a picture of a market that is likely to open lower, driven by:

1. Asian market weakness: Declines in Shanghai and Tokyo as global risks loom.
2. Oil price rally: Brent futures above $86 a barrel, adding pressure on energy‑heavy stocks.
3. US macro‑cues: Anticipated CPI and Fed minutes that reinforce a hawkish stance.
4. Domestic policy: RBI’s tight stance and fiscal tightening in the budget proposal.
5. Technical factors: Support at 21,300/21,200 and resistance at 21,600/21,800 for the Nifty.

The article concludes by advising traders to keep an eye on the key support levels and to remain cautious until the U.S. CPI data is released. A breakout below the 21,200 level could prompt a wider sell‑off across Indian equities, while a rebound might support a gradual recovery in the Nifty.

For readers interested in deeper dives, the Financial Express piece includes links to related articles covering the OPEC+ meeting’s impact on oil prices, a detailed analysis of the RBI’s policy outlook, and a commentary on the fiscal deficit implications for Indian equity markets.

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