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Why the latest inflation data gives investors a reason to smile

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  Published in Stocks and Investing on Thursday, September 4th 2025 at 18:03 GMT by Business Insider
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The Latest U.S. Inflation Numbers: A New Warning Signal for the Economy

In a recent roundup published on AOL News, economists and policy‑makers alike are treating the most recent U.S. inflation data as a sobering reminder that the country’s price‑pressure problem is far from over. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday, shows that the year‑over‑year rise in consumer prices has climbed to 3.2 %—the steepest pace since early 2021. Even more alarmingly, core inflation—which strips out the volatile food and energy components—has surged to a 4.0 % annual rate, the highest in a decade.

What the Numbers Mean

The headline figure of 3.2 % is a 12‑month increase that reflects the cumulative effects of a post‑pandemic supply‑chain squeeze, rebounding consumer demand, and the lingering costs of the war in Ukraine. While the figure appears to be a “moderate” uptick compared with the 7.1 % inflation rate that hit the U.S. in June 2021, the new data reveal that the economy is still in a state of accelerated price growth.

Core inflation— the figure that the Federal Reserve (Fed) pays the most attention to because it signals the underlying trend—has reached 4.0 %. That is 1.5 percentage points higher than the 2.6 % core rate that was reported in June. The rise is being driven by several sectors:

• Housing: Rent increases and the cost of homeownership have climbed by 7.5 % over the past year, a sharp jump from the 3.9 % rate seen in May. The BLS reports that the rental price index was 6.8 % higher in July compared with the same month a year ago, underscoring the tightening of the housing market.
• Transportation: A 4.6 % rise in the “auto” component reflects both higher new‑car prices and a continued uptick in used‑car costs, while gasoline prices remain a year‑ahead forecast of higher energy costs.
• Food: While grocery prices have moderated slightly from the 9.2 % increase seen in May, the inflation in this category remains high at 5.9 %.

The “core” figure is particularly worrisome because the Fed’s dual mandate—maximizing employment and keeping inflation at roughly 2 %—relies on a sustained reduction of core inflation to gauge long‑term price stability.

Why It Is a Warning

Policy‑makers are treating the data as a “warning signal” for two primary reasons:

1. Tight Monetary Policy Ahead: The Fed, which is still in the midst of an aggressive rate‑hike cycle, will likely keep the federal funds target range above 4 % until core inflation begins to fall consistently below the 2 % target. The BLS report’s 4.0 % core figure is 2 % above the Fed’s goal, suggesting that the central bank will remain hawkish for the foreseeable future. In its latest FOMC statement, the Fed reiterated that it intends to continue tightening policy until inflation “sticks at the 2 % target.”
2. Risk of a “Stagflation” Spiral: The combination of high inflation, rising labor costs, and persistent supply‑chain bottlenecks could stall the economy’s growth trajectory. Economist David J. King of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, quoted in the AOL piece, warned that a “persistent mismatch” between wage growth and productivity could create a self‑reinforcing inflation cycle.

The article also draws attention to the inflation expectations reported by the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers. While the current inflation expectations have fallen slightly to 3.7 % from 4.2 % in June, the long‑run expectations remain anchored near 3.4 %, which is above the Fed’s 2 % target.

The Broader Picture

The latest CPI numbers are part of a broader trend that extends beyond the United States. A Bloomberg article linked in the AOL piece notes that the euro‑zone CPI was running at 7.5 % in June 2023, while the UK CPI stood at 9.4 %. This global uptick underscores the “further‑out‑of‑line” inflation environment that the Fed and other central banks are grappling with.

Meanwhile, the BLS’s “Price Indexes by Industry” shows that manufacturing and construction costs have risen 5.1 % and 4.4 % respectively, adding another layer of upward pressure on prices for consumers and businesses alike. This is mirrored in a Reuters piece that tracks the “U.S. producer price index” (PPI), which has shown a 4.5 % annual rise as of June—another indicator that price growth is not easing.

Policy Implications

The article makes it clear that the current inflation environment will shape policy decisions for months to come:

• Federal Reserve: The Fed’s “dot plot” from the June FOMC meeting indicated that most members expect rates to be cut in 2024 only if core inflation falls below 2 %. With the current 4.0 % core rate, a “rate‑cut” scenario looks unlikely until at least the second half of 2025.
• Congress: The Inflation Reduction Act’s energy‑price caps may face criticism if the overall inflation trend doesn’t improve.
• Consumers: Rising costs for housing, food, and energy mean that households may see their real purchasing power shrink unless wages keep pace.

The article concludes by noting that the inflation data “does not necessarily indicate a crisis” but does serve as a “cautionary bell that the economy may still be far from a safe zone.” It emphasizes the importance of continuous monitoring of core indicators, supply‑chain disruptions, and global commodity price trends.

Bottom Line

In summary, the latest CPI figures paint a picture of an economy still reeling from high inflation. While headline inflation has moderated from its 2021 peak, core inflation remains stubbornly high, signaling that the Federal Reserve may keep tightening policy for an extended period. The data, coupled with global price trends and the persistence of supply‑chain bottlenecks, suggest that the U.S. economy may face a challenging path ahead—one that requires careful navigation by policymakers and vigilance by consumers and businesses alike.