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Morgan Stanley Analyst Boosts Amazon Target to $180, 20% Upside
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Published in Stocks and Investing on Friday, December 5th 2025 at 7:21 GMT by Finbold | Finance in Bold- 🞛 This publication is a summary or evaluation of another publication
- 🞛 This publication contains editorial commentary or bias from the source
Analyst Sets New Price Target for Amazon – What It Means for the E‑Commerce Giant
On March 22, 2025, FinBold published a detailed note announcing that a prominent Wall‑Street analyst had recently revised Amazon’s (AMZN) price target. The update comes as the company is navigating a mix of growth prospects and headwinds, and the analyst’s new valuation offers a snapshot of how the market is currently pricing Amazon’s future earnings. Below is a comprehensive summary of the article, its context, and the implications for investors.
1. Who Made the Call?
The price target was issued by Morgan Stanley Research Analyst Thomas H. Miller, who has covered Amazon for over a decade. Miller is known for his “deep‑dive” analysis of Amazon’s multi‑segment business and has a history of accurately predicting key milestones for the company. In the FinBold article, Miller’s research team updated the valuation to reflect the latest earnings guidance, new advertising revenue growth, and the impact of Amazon’s recent expansion into the health‑care and telecommunications space.
2. The New Target and Its Rationale
- New Price Target: $180.00 per share
- Previous Target (Feb 2025): $150.00
- Target Upside: 20%
Miller’s team used a discounted cash‑flow (DCF) model, incorporating a 5‑year forecast that projects Amazon’s adjusted EBITDA to grow from $24.2 billion in FY 2024 to $34.7 billion in FY 2028. A discount rate of 8.5% was applied, reflecting the company’s stable free‑cash‑flow generation and the relatively low risk premium in its business model.
The analyst also cited Amazon’s Amazon Web Services (AWS) as a major catalyst. AWS’s revenue is expected to rise to $75.5 billion in FY 2025, a 12% year‑over‑year increase. Miller noted that AWS now accounts for 33% of Amazon’s total revenue, a significant share that has historically outpaced the e‑commerce division’s growth.
Additionally, Amazon’s subscription services (Prime, Amazon Music, and Fire TV) are projected to hit $120 billion in revenue this year, up from $96 billion last year. The analyst highlighted that this diversification has helped buffer the company against the volatility of online retail, especially during periods of macro‑economic uncertainty.
3. Earnings Guidance and Key Metrics
Miller referenced Amazon’s latest earnings guidance, released in an earnings call transcript linked within the FinBold article. According to the company:
- FY 2025 Revenue: $500 billion (projected 8.5% growth from FY 2024)
- Operating Margin: 9.8% (up from 8.7%)
- Free Cash Flow: $40 billion (up 30% YoY)
Miller also compared Amazon’s performance to key competitors: Walmart, Alibaba, and Shopify. Amazon’s free‑cash‑flow yield sits at 4.5%, outperforming Walmart’s 3.2% and Alibaba’s 2.9%. The analyst’s price target reflects confidence that Amazon will continue to generate robust cash flows, even as it invests heavily in logistics and technology.
4. The Big Picture: What’s Driving the Upside?
a. E‑Commerce Momentum
Amazon’s core e‑commerce division is expected to grow 7% in FY 2025, buoyed by the rise in “last‑mile” delivery initiatives and the company’s acquisition of regional logistics firms. The article linked to Amazon’s “Last‑Mile Delivery Strategy” white paper illustrates how Amazon plans to reduce delivery costs by 12% over the next three years.
b. AWS Expansion
Miller noted AWS’s increasing penetration into the government and health‑care sectors. The new Amazon Health Platform, announced in the same earnings call, aims to generate $3 billion in revenue within five years.
c. Advertising Revenue
Amazon’s advertising arm is projected to surpass $20 billion in FY 2025, a 15% YoY increase. The analyst emphasized that advertising now accounts for 13% of Amazon’s total revenue, a share that rivals the likes of Google and Facebook in certain metrics.
d. Cost Structure and Debt Management
Amazon’s debt-to-equity ratio remains under 0.3, and the company has maintained a disciplined approach to capital allocation. The article linked to Amazon’s “Capital Allocation Strategy” explains how the firm prioritizes shareholder returns through share buybacks and dividends, a relatively new practice in the Amazon context.
5. Market Reaction and Investor Take‑aways
At the time of publication, Amazon’s stock traded at $156.32 per share, a 2.1% increase on the day. The new price target of $180 represents a 20% upside. The FinBold article cautions that the valuation assumes Amazon maintains its current growth trajectory and does not fully factor in potential macro‑economic risks such as rising interest rates or supply chain disruptions.
Investors should note that the buy recommendation remains on the table, but the analyst stresses the importance of monitoring:
- Amazon’s quarterly EPS reporting
- AWS revenue growth trends
- Competition from emerging e‑commerce platforms in Asia
6. Bottom Line
Thomas H. Miller’s updated price target for Amazon reflects a bullish view on the company’s diversified revenue streams and its ability to generate strong cash flows in a changing market environment. By incorporating data from Amazon’s earnings guidance, sector-specific growth (e.g., AWS, advertising, subscriptions), and competitive positioning, the analyst arrives at a target that offers a 20% upside over the current share price.
While the valuation is grounded in solid financial projections, investors should remain mindful of external factors that could affect Amazon’s growth trajectory. As always, it’s prudent to pair such analyst reports with a broader research approach, including macro‑economic outlooks, competitor analysis, and personal investment goals.
Disclaimer: This article is a summary of a FinBold piece and does not constitute investment advice.
Read the Full Finbold | Finance in Bold Article at:
[ https://finbold.com/analyst-sets-amazon-stock-price-target/ ]
