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How will markets open today? GIFT Nifty in green, Nikkei up 1%, US-China trade deal and 5 other cues to watch at this hour

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  Published in Stocks and Investing on Thursday, October 30th 2025 at 23:05 GMT by The Financial Express
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Markets Set for a Positive Start: Nifty, Nikkei, and the Implications of a US‑China Trade Deal

The Indian stock market is primed for a green opening as the National Stock Exchange’s benchmark Nifty 50 is forecast to open above its previous close. Analysts point to a blend of domestic macro‑economic signals, strong corporate earnings, and favorable global sentiment as the key catalysts for a bullish start. Meanwhile, the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s Nikkei 225 is also expected to rise, buoyed by solid quarterly results from major Japanese manufacturers and a steady improvement in consumer confidence. The backdrop of a recently reached US‑China trade deal adds an extra layer of optimism, potentially easing trade‑related anxieties that have lingered in global markets.

Gift Nifty in the Green Zone

The term “Gift Nifty” is a colloquial way of saying that the benchmark index is likely to be handed a “gift” of positive momentum. Market watchers cite several factors underpinning this view:

1. Robust Domestic Growth – The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected India’s GDP growth for the current fiscal year to be around 6.5%, a notable improvement from the previous year’s 5.6%. The steady uptick in industrial production and retail sales feeds into a bullish sentiment for the markets.

2. Inflation Cooling – Inflationary pressures have eased in recent months, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) recording a 4.3% year‑on‑year increase, comfortably below the RBI’s target band. This dovetailing of growth and inflation is often a green flag for equity markets.

3. Corporate Earnings Beat – Several leading IT and pharmaceutical firms have already reported quarterly earnings that beat expectations. The earnings trajectory for the upcoming week suggests a continuation of this positive trend, particularly in the high‑growth IT and pharma sectors.

4. Positive Global Flow – The global risk appetite has improved with the Federal Reserve signalling a gradual tightening of policy, which is often interpreted as a sign that the US economy is stable enough to sustain growth.

These elements have translated into a consensus among market analysts that the Nifty is poised to open in the green.

Nikkei 225 Closes Up 1%

Japan’s flagship index has shown resilience despite a challenging global environment. The Nikkei’s rise is anchored by:

• Strong Corporate Performance – Several Japanese conglomerates posted record profits for the quarter, with significant gains in the automotive and electronics segments.
• Domestic Consumption – Retail sales in Japan have shown a steady uptick, buoyed by an increase in tourism and a rebound in consumer confidence.
• Currency Support – The Japanese yen has weakened slightly against the dollar, making Japanese exports more competitive and encouraging foreign investors to pour money into the Nikkei.

These factors have collectively contributed to a 1% increase in the Nikkei, indicating a healthy start for the Tokyo market.

US‑China Trade Deal: A Catalyst for Market Optimism

A significant development that has reverberated across markets worldwide is the recent trade agreement reached between the United States and China. The deal addresses a number of high‑profile tariff disputes, including:

• Elimination of Certain Tariffs – Both nations have agreed to eliminate a portion of the tariffs that have been imposed over the past years, thereby reducing costs for manufacturers and consumers.
• Trade Framework Reforms – The agreement outlines new mechanisms for dispute resolution and intellectual property protection, which were previously cited as sources of friction.
• Supply Chain Stability – By clarifying trade rules, the deal is expected to provide greater predictability for global supply chains, a crucial factor for multinational corporations and investors alike.

The market’s positive reception to the trade deal can be seen in the uptick in equity indices, increased foreign portfolio inflows, and a steadier trajectory in commodity prices. Analysts suggest that the deal could set the tone for further trade negotiations in the future, potentially creating a more stable environment for cross‑border investment.

Five Other Cues to Watch

While the Nifty and Nikkei are expected to open on a positive note, several other market cues will shape the trajectory of the trading day:

1. RBI Monetary Policy Update – The RBI’s upcoming policy meeting may adjust the repo rate, which could influence borrowing costs for corporates and consumers.
2. US Consumer Confidence Index – The release of the latest consumer confidence data in the United States could either reinforce or dampen the optimistic mood in global markets.
3. Indian Corporate Earnings Calendar – A number of large Indian corporations are scheduled to report earnings in the coming days. The performance of these firms will be closely watched for any surprises.
4. China’s Industrial Production Figures – The Chinese government’s announcement of industrial output data will provide insight into the health of the world’s second largest economy.
5. Global Commodity Price Movements – Fluctuations in oil and metal prices can affect the valuation of energy and mining stocks, thereby influencing sector‑specific performance.

Investors are advised to keep an eye on these indicators as they can have a significant bearing on the intraday volatility and the broader market trend.

Conclusion

The combination of favorable domestic indicators in India, solid corporate earnings in Japan, and the easing of trade tensions between the United States and China has set the stage for a bullish opening across key global markets. The Nifty 50 is poised to start the day in the green, while the Nikkei 225 enjoys a 1% gain, reflecting robust fundamentals and a supportive macro‑environment. As the day unfolds, market participants will monitor the RBI’s policy decisions, the US Consumer Confidence Index, corporate earnings, China’s industrial production data, and commodity price movements to gauge the strength of the momentum. The overarching sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, underscored by a belief that the new trade deal may pave the way for a more stable and predictable global trade landscape.