Stocks & Investing
Sat, October 25, 2025
Fri, October 24, 2025
Thu, October 23, 2025
Hopes rise for altseason, but the signals aren't there yet
//stocks-investing.news-articles.net/content/202 .. -altseason-but-the-signals-aren-t-there-yet.html
Published in Stocks and Investing on Friday, October 24th 2025 at 1:06 GMT by CoinTelegraph- 🞛 This publication is a summary or evaluation of another publication
- 🞛 This publication contains editorial commentary or bias from the source
Alt‑Season on the Horizon: Analysts See Optimism, While Technical Indicators Remain Divided
The cryptocurrency market is currently in a state of quiet anticipation. While a number of prominent analysts have declared that an alt‑season is imminent, a closer look at the underlying technical and on‑chain indicators tells a more ambiguous story. CoinTelegraph’s recent feature, “Altseason on the way: analysts, but indicators disagree,” pulls together the viewpoints of industry experts, a set of leading market metrics, and the broader macro backdrop that is shaping investor sentiment.
1. Analyst Consensus on a Coming Alt‑Season
Several seasoned market commentators—including former hedge‑fund portfolio managers, blockchain researchers, and senior analysts from top crypto research firms—have issued bullish commentary on the potential for a robust alt‑season. Their rationale hinges on three pillars:
Declining Bitcoin Dominance: Historically, Bitcoin’s dominance has a strong inverse relationship with alt‑coin performance. Over the past three months, Bitcoin’s share of total market capitalization has fallen from roughly 60 % to 53 %, a 7 % drop that, according to the analysts, signals a shift of capital toward a broader range of tokens.
Catalysts in Layer‑1 Networks: Several layer‑1 blockchains are slated to release major upgrades—Ethereum 2.0’s “Shanghai” upgrade, Solana’s network resilience improvements, and Cardano’s Alonzo upgrade that introduces smart‑contract capabilities. These upgrades are projected to unlock new utility and attract institutional interest.
Macro‑economic Headwinds: Rising inflation expectations and the anticipation of tightening monetary policy in the United States have nudged risk‑on assets—including cryptocurrencies—toward higher‑yielding alt‑coins. Analysts predict that Bitcoin’s relatively stable, albeit lower, yield compared to certain DeFi protocols will encourage a strategic shift.
In addition to these points, the article highlights a series of recent “buy” ratings from key research desks. A short‑form quote from a senior analyst at CryptoQuant reads: “The on‑chain momentum behind Ethereum and Solana has broken key resistance levels, and with Bitcoin’s dominance weakening, we anticipate a wave of capital flowing into mid‑cap projects.”
2. Technical Indicators That Raise Red Flags
While analysts point to a bullish narrative, the article dives into a range of technical indicators that offer a different perspective. The data presented comes from reputable chart‑analysis platforms, on‑chain data aggregators, and market‑breadth dashboards. Key indicators include:
| Indicator | Current Reading | Historical Context | Analyst Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Dominance | 53 % | Avg. 60 % (last 12 mo) | “A significant dip, but still within a high range for alt‑season triggers.” |
| Alt‑Coin Market‑Cap Ratio | 47 % | Avg. 35 % | “A jump, yet short of the 55 % threshold that often precedes a strong season.” |
| On‑Chain Money‑Flow Index (MFI) | -0.4 | Avg. -0.1 | “Negative sentiment remains in the wallet‑balance metric.” |
| Bitcoin 50‑Day MA | 41 k USD | Below 50‑Day MA | “Bitcoin is trading below its 50‑day moving average, indicating a potential trend‑reversal risk.” |
| Market Breadth (S&P 500 Alt‑Coin Index) | +3 % | Avg. +6 % | “Breadth is still weak, suggesting a limited number of winners.” |
The article explains that, according to some of the same research firms, a “clean” alt‑season requires not just a decline in Bitcoin dominance but a simultaneous surge in the alt‑coin market‑cap ratio, stronger on‑chain momentum, and a positive market‑breadth reading. While Bitcoin dominance is falling, the alt‑coin ratio is only inching above 45 %, and on‑chain MFI remains negative, indicating that institutional inflows into alt‑coins have not yet materialized.
3. On‑Chain and Market‑Breadth Deep Dives
A standout feature of the CoinTelegraph piece is its in‑depth exploration of on‑chain metrics sourced from Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock. These platforms track wallet‑balance changes, large‑cap investor activity, and network‑usage indicators across multiple blockchains. One key finding is that the “Big Whale” wallet activity on Ethereum has dipped by 12 % month‑over‑month, suggesting that high‑net‑worth holders may be cautious about the near‑term market direction.
The article also references a linked study on market breadth that underscores a growing disconnect between Bitcoin’s price action and the performance of alternative assets. According to the breadth study, only 18 % of alt‑coins have risen above their 200‑day moving averages, a figure that the article describes as a “potential drag on the sector’s overall momentum.”
4. Macro‑Economic Context
A significant portion of the article is devoted to explaining how macro‑economic factors—particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve’s inflation‑fighting policy and rising interest rates—are shaping risk appetite. Analysts argue that the crypto space is uniquely positioned as a “risk‑on, high‑yield” asset class compared to traditional equities. This perspective suggests that a tightening monetary policy could actually strengthen the appeal of alt‑coins with higher yields, such as those tied to DeFi protocols.
In contrast, some technical experts point out that higher interest rates may also pressure liquidity, causing investors to pull out of riskier alt‑coins and seek safer havens, thereby weakening the alt‑season narrative.
5. Contrasting Outlooks and Final Takeaway
The article’s conclusion is clear: while analysts are leaning toward a bullish outlook for an upcoming alt‑season, the technical and on‑chain data paint a more cautious picture. Key takeaways include:
- Bitcoin Dominance is Declining, but Not Yet at Traditional Alt‑Season Levels: The current 53 % dominance level is below the historic mean, yet it sits above the 50 % threshold that often precedes a robust alt‑season.
- On‑Chain Momentum is Mixed: Negative money‑flow indices and waning whale activity suggest that institutional enthusiasm may not yet be fully on board.
- Market Breadth Remains Weak: Only a handful of alt‑coins have outperformed Bitcoin, indicating limited upside potential across the sector.
- Macro‑Economic Pressures Could Go Either Way: Rising rates may boost alt‑coins’ relative yields, but could also dampen overall risk appetite.
Ultimately, the article urges investors to monitor a multi‑layered set of indicators—technical, on‑chain, and macro—rather than relying solely on the prevailing narrative. For now, the alt‑season debate remains open, and those looking to capitalize on potential upside should keep a close eye on Bitcoin dominance, on‑chain money‑flow indices, and market breadth metrics as the market evolves.
Read the Full CoinTelegraph Article at:
[ https://cointelegraph.com/news/altseason-on-the-way-analysts-but-indicators-disagree ]
