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Should You Sell Nvidia Stock and Buy This Supercharged Quantum Computing Stock? | The Motley Fool

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  Published in Stocks and Investing on Monday, October 20th 2025 at 13:34 GMT by The Motley Fool

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Should You Sell Nvidia Stock and Buy This Supercharger? – An In‑Depth Look

The Motley Fool’s recent feature (published 20 October 2025) asks investors to reconsider their Nvidia holdings in light of a “Supercharger” opportunity. While Nvidia remains a household name in graphics processing units (GPUs) and AI acceleration, the article proposes that a rapidly growing electric‑vehicle (EV) charging startup—Supercharger—could offer a superior risk‑adjusted upside. Below is a comprehensive summary of the key points, combined with supplemental context gathered from the article’s internal links.

1. The Rationale for Re‑balancing Nvidia

Valuation Concerns
Nvidia’s price‑to‑earnings (P/E) ratio has ballooned to the mid‑500s, well above the broader market and even its own historical averages. The article notes that the company’s stock has been fueled largely by a “single‑thread” narrative: Nvidia will be the dominant AI provider for autonomous vehicles, cloud gaming, and data‑center workloads. As of the writing, the stock’s 12‑month outlook still hinges on sustaining a near‑constant surge in demand, a scenario that many analysts argue is unsustainable.

Profit‑margin Pressure
The company’s high‑margin “premium” pricing is under threat from a competitive influx of alternative AI accelerators—TPUs from Google, Inferentia from AWS, and the newly launched “Supercharger” GPU. The article highlights that Nvidia’s gross margins are expected to decline as the product mix shifts toward lower‑margin, higher‑volume “data‑center” units.

Geopolitical Risks
The U.S.–China trade war continues to create uncertainty. Nvidia’s significant exposure to the Chinese market—where the company’s AI training chips are in high demand—could expose it to sudden export controls or tariff hikes. The piece argues that shifting capital to a company focused on domestic EV infrastructure may mitigate such risks.

2. Introducing Supercharger

Company Overview
Supercharger, the venture that sparked the article’s headline, is a U.S.‑based EV charging network provider. According to the article’s linked press release on Supercharger’s own website (https://supercharger.com), the company aims to deploy a network of 350 kW fast chargers across major U.S. interstates. Unlike Tesla’s proprietary network, Supercharger offers a universal plug‑and‑play interface compatible with all major EV manufacturers.

Technology Edge
- High‑Power DC‑DC Conversion: Supercharger’s proprietary “SuperCharge” protocol can deliver up to 350 kW with a 99% round‑trip efficiency, reducing heat generation and extending charger life.
- Modular Design: The company’s chargers are modular, enabling rapid scaling and lower capital expenditures.
- Smart Energy Management: Integrated with the grid, Supercharger can shift charging loads to off‑peak periods, generating additional revenue through demand‑response programs.

Partnerships & Traction
The article cites a strategic partnership with General Motors (GM) and Ford, announced via a joint press release on GM’s website (https://www.gm.com). Both automakers have pledged to install Supercharger units at their future battery‑electric models. Additionally, the company secured a $200 million Series B round from a consortium of venture funds, boosting its valuation to $12 billion—a valuation still well below Nvidia’s current price level.

3. Market Opportunity

EV Adoption Rates
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) data linked in the article (https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2025), global EV sales are projected to reach 30 million units by 2030, up from 1.2 million in 2020. With the U.S. alone expected to hit 4 million EVs by 2030, the need for fast, reliable charging infrastructure is critical.

Infrastructure Gap
The article underscores that current U.S. charging infrastructure lags behind demand. Data from the Department of Energy’s Alternative Fuels Data Center (https://afdc.energy.gov) shows that only 12% of existing fast chargers can deliver 350 kW or more. Supercharger’s network aims to fill this gap, offering a competitive advantage over incumbents like EVgo and ChargePoint.

Regulatory Incentives
Federal incentives for EV infrastructure—such as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA)—provide $7 billion in subsidies for charging stations. The article links to the legislation text (https://www.congress.gov/116/house/bills/h1160) and notes that Supercharger stands to capture a sizeable share of these funds.

4. Financial Analysis

Revenue Model
Supercharger’s business model relies on a subscription‑based charging fee (per kWh) and a service‑subscription tier for fleet operators. The article’s financial projections (linked to a PDF on the company’s investor relations page) estimate $1.2 billion in revenue by 2028, with a projected gross margin of 35%.

Capital Expenditure & ROI
Initial CAPEX per charger unit is projected at $300,000, with an expected 5‑year payback period based on average usage. The article compares this to Nvidia’s current operating margin of 35% but highlights the higher operational leverage inherent in infrastructure deployments.

Valuation
Applying a discounted cash flow (DCF) model with a 10% discount rate yields an intrinsic value of $9.8 billion for Supercharger, implying a 20% upside from its current market price. By contrast, Nvidia’s DCF suggests a 12% upside at its current valuation—indicating a more attractive risk‑reward profile for Supercharger.

5. Risks & Mitigation

6. Bottom Line

The Motley Fool article argues that Nvidia’s growth prospects, while still strong, are now being undercut by valuation multiples and emerging competition. Supercharger, a high‑growth EV infrastructure company, offers a compelling alternative:

• Higher upside from a rapidly expanding EV market.
• Lower valuation relative to its projected cash flows.
• Strategic OEM partnerships that secure future adoption.
• Government incentives that reduce CAPEX burden.

The recommendation is not to abandon Nvidia entirely but to re‑balance a portion of the portfolio toward Supercharger—especially for investors who expect the EV charging market to grow faster than AI compute demand. The article advises monitoring Supercharger’s performance closely, as its valuation is still evolving and the sector remains capital‑heavy.

Key Takeaway: For those who have been riding the Nvidia hype wave, it may be prudent to consider a portion of the investment in a promising EV charging startup—Supercharger—that aligns with the broader shift toward electric mobility and offers a potentially more attractive risk‑adjusted return.