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AVB, PPS, UDR, REIT - Equity Trust Residential Stocks Overvalued

^{Published on 2011-09-16 07:00:49 - WOPRAI}
 

September 16, 2011/ M2 PRESSWIRE / BUYINS.NET / http://www.squeezetrigger.com is monitoring the REIT - Equity Trust Residential sector and these stocks are the most undervalued as of today. AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (NYSE:AVB), POST PROPERTIES INC (NYSE:PPS), UDR INC (NYSE:UDR) are all expected to go Down as they are Overvalued according to industry standard valuation metrics. The valuation model employs a three-factor approach to stock valuation using fundamental variables--the company's trailing 12-month Earnings-Per-Share (EPS), the analyst consensus estimate of the company's forecasted 12-month EPS, and the 30-year Treasury yield--to create a highly accurate reflection of a company's fair value.

The chart below displays the projected Fair Value and Valuation discount/premium of the most undervalued stocks in the highlighted industry group:

     Symbol     Company Name                        Last Close     Fair Value     Valuation                   Industry               
     AVB        AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC           $130.14        $126.59        2.80% Overvalued            REIT - Equity Trust Residential
     PPS        POST PROPERTIES INC                 $42.04         $40.47         3.90% Overvalued            REIT - Equity Trust Residential
     UDR        UDR INC                             $26.45         $22.13         19.50% Overvalued           REIT - Equity Trust Residential

Here are some of the variables that are utilized when calculating the Fair Market Valuation of a stock: Long-run EPS growth rate, Duration of Business-growth-cycle, Volatility of EPS growth rate, Systematic or beta risk of the firm, Correlation between the firm's EPS and the interest rate environment, EPS growth volatility, Dividend payout ratio, Buffer earnings, Interest rate related criteria: Interest rate (30 year yield) long-run level, Duration of interest rate cycle, Interest rate volatility. The Fair Market Valuation uses 12-month historic and forecasted EPS values and the current 30-year treasury yield as primary determinants. When calculating risk/return values such as the Sharpe ratio, the historic periods used are five years.

Some expected results of the Valuation Model are: the valuation of a stock increases in a declining interest rate environment. Increasing current and/or projected EPS will produce a higher Valuation. While long-term EPS growth would produce a corresponding long-term Valuation increase, concomitant long-term interest rate increases would offset EPS growth and depress the Valuation. The shorter a company's own business cycle, the higher its stock Valuation will be.

AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (NYSE:AVB) - AvalonBay Communities, Inc. engages in the development, redevelopment, acquisition, ownership, and operation of multifamily communities in the United States. As of January 31, 2009, the company owned or held a direct or indirect ownership interest in 164 operating apartment communities comprising 45,728 apartment homes in 10 states and the District of Columbia. It also held a direct or indirect ownership interest in 14 communities under construction, as well as held rights to develop an additional 27 communities. The companys markets are located in New England, the New York/New Jersey metro area, the Mid-Atlantic, the Midwest, the Pacific Northwest, and the Northern and Southern California regions of the United States. AvalonBay Communities has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust and would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was founded in 1978 and is based in Arlington, Virginia.

POST PROPERTIES INC (NYSE:PPS) - Post Properties, Inc., a real estate investments trust (REIT), together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, ownership, and management of multifamily apartment communities in the United States. As of December 31, 2007, the company owned 22,578 apartment units in 63 apartment communities, including 1,747 apartment units in 2 communities held in unconsolidated entities and 2,266 apartment units in 7 communities. It is also developing and selling 535 for-sale condominium homes in 4 communities and converting 349 apartment homes into for-sale condominium homes in 2 communities. The company primarily operates in Atlanta, Georgia; Dallas, Texas; Washington, D.C.; and Tampa, Florida metropolitan areas. Post Properties has elected to be taxed as REIT under the Internal Revenue Code and would not be subject to federal income taxes, if it distributes approximately 90% of its taxable income to its shareholders. The company was founded in 1971 and is based in Atlanta, Georgia.

UDR INC (NYSE:UDR) - UDR, Inc. formerly United Dominion Realty Trust, Inc., operates as a self-administered equity real estate investment trust (REIT). It owns, acquires, renovates, develops, and manages middle-market apartment communities. The company targets young professionals, blue-collar families, single parent households, older singles, immigrants, and non related parties. As of June 30, 2005, the companys portfolio included 263 communities with 77,289 apartment homes nationwide. As a REIT, the company would not be subject to federal income taxes to the extent it distributes 90% of its REIT taxable income to its stockholders. UDR, Inc. was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Highlands Ranch, Colorado.

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