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CVX, GZPFY, BAK, TOT, XOM, E, Oil and Gas - Intl Integrated Stocks Overvalued

^{Published on 2011-04-12 04:21:18 - WOPRAI}
 

April 12, 2011/ M2 PRESSWIRE / BUYINS.NET / http://www.squeezetrigger.com is monitoring the Oil and Gas - Intl Integrated sector and these stocks are the most undervalued as of today. CHEVRON CORP (NYSE:CVX), GAZPROM NEFT-SPONSORED ADR (OTC:GZPFY), BRASKEM SA-SPON ADR (NYSE:BAK), TOTAL SA-SPON ADR (NYSE:TOT), EXXON MOBIL CORP (NYSE:XOM), ENI SPA-SPONSORED ADR (NYSE:E) are all expected to go Down as they are Overvalued according to industry standard valuation metrics. The valuation model employs a three-factor approach to stock valuation using fundamental variables--the company's trailing 12-month Earnings-Per-Share (EPS), the analyst consensus estimate of the company's forecasted 12-month EPS, and the 30-year Treasury yield--to create a highly accurate reflection of a company's fair value.

The chart below displays the projected Fair Value and Valuation discount/premium of the most undervalued stocks in the highlighted industry group:

     Symbol     Company Name                        Last Close     Fair Value     Valuation                   Industry               
     CVX        CHEVRON CORP                        $107.78        $89.28         20.70% Overvalued           Oil and Gas - Intl Integrated
     GZPFY      GAZPROM NEFT-SPONSORED ADR          $25.95         $24.33         20.70% Overvalued           Oil and Gas - Intl Integrated
     BAK        BRASKEM SA-SPON ADR                 $29.10         $22.29         20.70% Overvalued           Oil and Gas - Intl Integrated
     TOT        TOTAL SA-SPON ADR                   $61.84         $59.89         20.70% Overvalued           Oil and Gas - Intl Integrated
     XOM        EXXON MOBIL CORP                    $85.16         $76.25         20.70% Overvalued           Oil and Gas - Intl Integrated
     E          ENI SPA-SPONSORED ADR               $50.75         $43.04         20.70% Overvalued           Oil and Gas - Intl Integrated

Here are some of the variables that are utilized when calculating the Fair Market Valuation of a stock: Long-run EPS growth rate, Duration of Business-growth-cycle, Volatility of EPS growth rate, Systematic or beta risk of the firm, Correlation between the firm's EPS and the interest rate environment, EPS growth volatility, Dividend payout ratio, Buffer earnings, Interest rate related criteria: Interest rate (30 year yield) long-run level, Duration of interest rate cycle, Interest rate volatility. The Fair Market Valuation uses 12-month historic and forecasted EPS values and the current 30-year treasury yield as primary determinants. When calculating risk/return values such as the Sharpe ratio, the historic periods used are five years.

Some expected results of the Valuation Model are: the valuation of a stock increases in a declining interest rate environment. Increasing current and/or projected EPS will produce a higher Valuation. While long-term EPS growth would produce a corresponding long-term Valuation increase, concomitant long-term interest rate increases would offset EPS growth and depress the Valuation. The shorter a company's own business cycle, the higher its stock Valuation will be.

CHEVRON CORP (NYSE:CVX) - Chevron Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in petroleum, chemicals, mining, power generation, and energy operations worldwide. It operates in two segments, Upstream and Downstream. The Upstream segment involves in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas; processing, liquefaction, transportation, and regasification associated with liquefied natural gas; transportation of crude oil through pipelines; and transportation, storage, and marketing of natural gas, as well as holds interest in a gas-to-liquids project. The Downstream segment engages in the refining of crude oil into petroleum products; marketing of crude oil and refined products primarily under the Chevron, Texaco, and Caltex brand names; transportation of crude oil and refined products by pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment, and rail car; and manufacture and marketing of commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses, and fuel and lubricant additives. It also produces and markets coal and molybdenum; and holds interests in 13 power assets with a total operating capacity of approximately 3,100 megawatts, as well as involves in cash management and debt financing activities, insurance operations, real estate activities, energy services, and alternative fuels and technology business. Chevron Corporation has a joint venture agreement with China National Petroleum Corporation. The company was formerly known as ChevronTexaco Corp. and changed its name to Chevron Corporation in May 2005. Chevron Corporation was founded in 1879 and is based in San Ramon, California.

GAZPROM NEFT-SPONSORED ADR (OTC:GZPFY) - JSC Gazprom Neft, an integrated oil company, engages in the exploration, development, production, and sale of crude oil and gas in the Russian Federation. It also involves in oil refining business, as well as in the sale of petroleum products. The company holds 66 sub-soil licenses in the Russian regions, including Khanty-Mansyisk Autonomous District, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District, Nenets Autonomous District, Tyumen, Tomsk, Omsk, Irkutsk, Krasnoyarsk Territory, and Krasnodar Territory; and takes part in joint development projects at oil fields in Serbia, Iraq, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea. It also refines crude oil; and purchases, sells, and transports crude oil and refined petroleum products. In addition, the company involves in the retail of petroleum products through its 950 filling stations. Its refined products comprise motor gasoline, diesel oil, fuel oil, jet oil, aromatic hydrocarbon, liquefied hydrocarbon gas, and lubricant products, as well as additives and catalysts. Further, the company offers oilfield services, such as construction of development and exploration wells; well servicing and workover operations; well cementing rig-up services; repair and maintenance of oilfield and drilling equipment and oilfield tubular goods; and pad and road filling services. Additionally, it exports its crude oil and petroleum products to 48 countries worldwide. The company was formerly known as Sibneft and changed its name to JSC Gazprom Neft in May 2006. JSC Gazprom Neft is based in Moscow, the Russian Federation. JSC Gazprom Neft is a subsidiary of JSC Gazprom.

BRASKEM SA-SPON ADR (NYSE:BAK) - Braskem S.A. produces and sells petrochemical products in Brazil and the United States. It offers olefins, such as ethylene, polymer and chemical grade propylene, butadiene, isoprene, and butene-1; aromatics comprising benzene, toluene, para-xylene, ortho-xylene, and mixed xylene; fuels, such as automotive gasoline and liquefied petroleum gas; and other basic petrochemicals, such as ethyl tertiary butyl ether, solvent C9, and pyrolysis C9 primarily for manufacturing intermediate second generation petrochemical products. The company provides polyethylene and polypropylene for use in consumer and industrial applications, such as plastic films for food and industrial packaging, bottles, shopping bags and other consumer goods containers, automotive parts, and household appliances. In addition, the company offers suspension polyvinylchloride (PVC) for the manufacture of pipes, fittings, laminated products, shoes, sheeting, flooring, cable insulation, electrical conduit, packaging, and medical applications; paste PVC for producing toys, synthetic leather, flooring materials, bottle caps and seals, automobile corrosion prevention treatments, and wallpaper coatings; and caustic soda for aluminum, pulp and paper, petrochemicals and other chemicals, soaps and detergents, and waste treatment plants applications. Further, it distributes chemical and petrochemical products comprising solvents, such as aliphatic, aromatic, synthetic, and ecological solvents; polymers; and general purpose chemicals, which include process oils, chemical intermediates, blends, specialty chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and santoprene. The company was formerly known as Copene Petroquimica do Nordeste S.A. The company was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Camaari, Brazil. Braskem S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Odebrecht S.A.

TOTAL SA-SPON ADR (NYSE:TOT) - TOTAL S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated oil and gas company worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Upstream, Downstream, and Chemicals. The Upstream segment engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. It also involves in the marketing, trade, and transportation of natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG), as well as in LNG re-gasification and natural gas storage operations. In addition, this segment engages in the shipping and trade of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG); power generation from gas-fired power plants or renewable energies; production, trade, and marketing of coal, as well as in solar power systems and technology operations. As of December 31, 2009, it had proved reserves of 10,483 Mboe of oil and gas. The Downstream segment engages in refining, marketing, trading, and shipping crude oil and petroleum products. It also produces a range of specialty products, such as lubricants, LPG, jet fuel, special fluids, bitumen, marine fuels and petrochemical feedstock. The company held interests in 24 refineries located in Europe, the United States, the French West Indies, Africa, and China, as well as operated a network of 16,299 retail stations worldwide. The Chemicals segment produces base chemicals, including petrochemicals and fertilizers, as well as involves in rubber processing, resins, adhesives, and electroplating activities. The company was founded in 1924 and is based in Courbevoie, France.

EXXON MOBIL CORP (NYSE:XOM) - Exxon Mobil Corporation engages in the exploration, production, transportation, and sale of crude oil and natural gas. It also involves in the manufacture, transportation, and sale of petroleum products. The company manufactures and markets commodity petrochemicals, including olefins, aromatics, polyethylene and polypropylene plastics, and other specialty products. Exxon Mobil also has interests in electric power generation facilities. As of December 31, 2009, it operated 16,587 gross and 13,737 net operated wells. The company primarily operates in the United States, Canada, Europe, Africa, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Russia/Caspian region, and South America. Exxon Mobil Corporation was founded in 1870 and is based in Irving, Texas.

ENI SPA-SPONSORED ADR (NYSE:E) - Eni SpA, an integrated energy company, engages in the exploration, production, transportation, transformation, and marketing of oil and natural gas. The company involves in the production and sale of electricity; refining and marketing of petroleum products; and production and sale of petrochemical products and hydrocarbons. In addition, it involves in offshore and onshore hydrocarbon fields construction. Further, the company offers offshore and onshore drilling, and offshore design and engineering services for oil and gas companies. It has a strategic partnership with Gazprom for the joint development of projects in the upstream and gas markets. Eni SpA operates in Europe, Africa, Asia and Oceania, and the Americas. The company was founded in 1953 and is headquartered in Rome, Italy.

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