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2025 US Distressed Outlook: Market Strength to Boost Defaults, Opportunity Set?

On the opposite side of the spread coin, default rates also reflect economic health. Barclays sees high-yield defaults running at 2%-3% (by issuer count, including distressed exchanges) in 2025, well under the 3.6% average of the past 30 years. Morgan Stanley's expected bond default rate for 2025 matches Barclays' at 2.5%.
The article from Morningstar discusses the outlook for distressed investments in the U.S. for 2025, highlighting that despite a strong market, there are still opportunities for investors in distressed assets. It notes that while the overall economic environment remains robust, several factors contribute to an increase in distressed opportunities. These include rising interest rates, which strain companies with high debt levels, and sectors like commercial real estate facing challenges due to shifts in work patterns post-COVID. The piece also mentions that while default rates might not spike dramatically, the quality of distressed assets could deteriorate, offering savvy investors a chance to capitalize on mispriced securities or undervalued companies. Furthermore, the article suggests that private credit markets might see more activity as banks tighten lending standards, potentially leading to more distressed situations. However, the opportunity set for distressed investing is described as nuanced, requiring careful analysis to distinguish between temporary liquidity issues and fundamental business problems.

Read the Full Morningstar Article at:
[ https://www.morningstar.com/markets/2025-us-distressed-outlook-market-strength-boost-defaults-opportunity-set ]