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How will markets open today? GIFT Nifty higher, Nikkei up 1%, crude oil and 7 cues at this hour

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  Published in Stocks and Investing on Sunday, September 7th 2025 at 23:01 GMT by The Financial Express
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Markets to Open on a Positive Note: Nifty, Nikkei, Oil and Global Cues Shape Investor Sentiment

By [Your Name]
Financial Times – September 7, 2025

As the world’s financial markets prepare to swing open on Tuesday, analysts and traders alike are turning their focus to a handful of key indicators that could set the tone for the day. The Indian flagship index, the Nifty 50, is expected to open higher on a backdrop of solid global cues, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 is poised to trade in a bullish zone. Crude‑oil prices, meanwhile, have been trending upward in the last 24 hours, adding a commodity‑driven lift to the global market mix. Below, we distil the critical factors that market participants are watching in the first hour of trading.

1. Indian Markets – “Gift” Nifty Higher?

The phrase “Gift Nifty” often appears in pre‑market commentary to signal a “gift” of bullish sentiment to the index. This morning, the Nifty 50 is opening on a 0.6 % upside, a 0.4 % gain on the day’s early open and a 1.2 % rise on the month‑to‑date basis. Key factors driving this optimism include:

• Strong global equity performance – The U.S. S&P 500 is trading near 4 % above the 2024 closing high, while the MSCI World index is up 0.8 % on the pre‑market session.
• Favorable commodity backdrop – Crude‑oil prices have steadied at $86.25 a barrel, their highest in three weeks. Higher energy prices typically support industrial demand and corporate earnings in oil‑exporting economies, including India.
• Improved domestic sentiment – The Indian Reserve Bank (RBI) has hinted at a modest easing of short‑term policy rates, which is expected to buoy growth expectations in the near term.

Despite these tailwinds, market watchers caution that the Nifty is still testing a 5,600 support zone, a level that, if breached, could see the index dip back into a mid‑level range.

2. Japan’s Nikkei 225 – A 1 % Rally

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is poised to open on an up‑tick, with the day’s first 30 minutes already indicating a 1 % rally from the prior close. The drivers behind this positive sentiment are:

• Corporate earnings optimism – Key Japanese manufacturers, such as Toyota and Sony, have issued upbeat earnings forecasts that are expected to lift market sentiment.
• Favorable FX dynamics – The yen has weakened against the dollar by 1.5 %, which is likely to support Japan’s export‑heavy sectors.
• Positive global cues – The U.S. Treasury yield curve is inverted, but the risk‑premium on equity indices remains moderate, encouraging risk‑seeking flows into Asia.

Analysts highlight that the Nikkei’s high‑volume trading at the 29,000 level could provide a crucial support point for the remainder of the session.

3. Oil Prices – A 7‑Cue Analysis

Oil has been the single biggest mover in the global commodity space this week, with prices climbing from $78 a barrel to $86 a barrel—a 10 % surge in the last 12 hours. Market participants are focusing on the following seven cues to anticipate the oil market’s trajectory:

1. U.S. OPEC+ Production Decisions – The latest meeting in Vienna saw OPEC+ agree to maintain the current production cuts until Q2 2026.
2. US Shale Supply – The latest data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated a 4 % decline in U.S. shale production, tightening supply.
3. China’s Industrial Output – The Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a 0.8 % rise in industrial output for August, signifying rising domestic demand.
4. Geopolitical Tensions – Rising tensions in the Middle East, coupled with the U.S. diplomatic outreach to Iran, have weighed on risk sentiment.
5. US Dollar Index – The USD Index has been trading below 100, a mild depreciation that typically supports oil prices.
6. Seasonal Demand – The upcoming summer season in the U.S. traditionally sees a surge in gasoline demand, further tightening the supply‑demand balance.
7. Climate‑Policy Uncertainty – European emissions targets and U.S. climate initiatives create some uncertainty about long‑term demand for fossil fuels.

Collectively, these cues suggest that oil prices may remain in the upper mid‑$80s range for the next few trading days, which will likely provide a tailwind to energy stocks and overall market sentiment.

4. Global Cues – From the U.S. to the Middle East

The broader market narrative is shaped by several high‑profile indicators that have emerged in the past 24 hours:

• US Federal Reserve Minutes – The Fed’s latest meeting minutes emphasized a “controlled” approach to interest‑rate hikes, providing comfort to global equity markets.
• European Central Bank (ECB) Policy Statement – The ECB signalled a potential pause in tightening, citing weaker inflation dynamics in the Eurozone.
• Middle East Energy Outlook – The International Energy Agency (IEA) projected a 2.5 % growth in global oil demand for 2026, a bullish outlook that may keep commodity prices buoyant.
• China’s Trade Data – China’s export figures for July showed a 5 % uptick, reinforcing expectations of resilient global demand.

These cues collectively underpin a “risk‑on” sentiment that has buoyed indices worldwide.

5. Technical Analysis – Key Levels to Watch

• Nifty 50 – The 50‑day moving average sits at 5,550, while the 200‑day average sits at 5,300. The Nifty is currently trading above the 50‑day but below the 200‑day, indicating a short‑term bullish trend.
• Nikkei 225 – The index’s 20‑day moving average is at 29,000, while the 50‑day average is at 28,800. The current 30‑minute rally sits just above the 20‑day average, a potential entry point for bullish trades.
• Crude Oil – The 20‑week high sits at $88 per barrel, while the 50‑week low is at $80. The current price of $86 is above the 20‑week high, signaling a bullish momentum.

Analysts advise keeping a close eye on these technical pivots as they could provide early indications of reversal or continuation.

6. Investor Takeaway – What to Expect

For the day, the consensus among market commentators is that the combination of supportive global cues, a bullish commodity backdrop, and an upbeat domestic policy stance will likely lift market sentiment across the board. Traders should remain vigilant around the following points:

1. Nifty Support at 5,600 – Any breach could trigger a correction.
2. Nikkei 29,000 – A decline below this point might erode risk‑on momentum.
3. Oil at $86 – If the price dips below the 20‑week low of $80, energy stocks could see a pullback.

In addition, investors should stay tuned for the overnight US CPI data, scheduled for 10:30 GMT, which could introduce volatility into the markets.

Conclusion

The market’s opening is set to be a micro‑cosm of the larger economic narrative: an interplay between commodity-driven optimism, robust global indices, and domestic policy signals. The Nifty and Nikkei are poised for a positive start, buoyed by the rise in oil prices and a “risk‑on” global environment. While the path ahead appears bullish in the short term, market participants will need to monitor the key support levels and macro data releases that could reshape the narrative in the days to come.

Stay tuned for live updates and expert commentary throughout the trading session.