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VITC, CWTR, NUS, SYX, MSM, DLIA, Retail Mail Order Stocks Overvalued

^{Published on 2012-02-06 06:40:09 - WOPRAI}
 

February 6, 2012/ M2 PRESSWIRE / BUYINS.NET / http://www.squeezetrigger.com is monitoring the Retail Mail Order sector and these stocks are the most undervalued as of today. VITACOST.COM INC (NASDAQ:VITC), COLDWATER CREEK INC (NASDAQ:CWTR), NU Skin Enterprises Inc (NYSE:NUS), Systemax Inc (NYSE:SYX), MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO., INC. (NYSE:MSM), DELIA*S INC (NASDAQ:DLIA) are all expected to go Down as they are Overvalued according to industry standard valuation metrics. The valuation model employs a three-factor approach to stock valuation using fundamental variables--the company's trailing 12-month Earnings-Per-Share (EPS), the analyst consensus estimate of the company's forecasted 12-month EPS, and the 30-year Treasury yield--to create a highly accurate reflection of a company's fair value.

The chart below displays the projected Fair Value and Valuation discount/premium of the most undervalued stocks in the highlighted industry group:

     Symbol     Company Name                        Last Close     Fair Value     Valuation                   Industry               
     VITC       VITACOST.COM INC                    $6.77          $6.43          5.00% Overvalued            Retail Mail Order      
     CWTR       COLDWATER CREEK INC                 $0.95          $0.52          45.30% Overvalued           Retail Mail Order      
     NUS        NU Skin Enterprises Inc             $52.76         $44.14         16.30% Overvalued           Retail Mail Order      
     SYX        Systemax Inc                        $19.85         $16.95         14.60% Overvalued           Retail Mail Order      
     MSM        MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO., INC.     $77.84         $64.03         17.70% Overvalued           Retail Mail Order      
     DLIA       DELIA*S INC                         $1.08          $0.27          75.00% Overvalued           Retail Mail Order      

Here are some of the variables that are utilized when calculating the Fair Market Valuation of a stock: Long-run EPS growth rate, Duration of Business-growth-cycle, Volatility of EPS growth rate, Systematic or beta risk of the firm, Correlation between the firm's EPS and the interest rate environment, EPS growth volatility, Dividend payout ratio, Buffer earnings, Interest rate related criteria: Interest rate (30 year yield) long-run level, Duration of interest rate cycle, Interest rate volatility. The Fair Market Valuation uses 12-month historic and forecasted EPS values and the current 30-year treasury yield as primary determinants. When calculating risk/return values such as the Sharpe ratio, the historic periods used are five years.

Some expected results of the Valuation Model are: the valuation of a stock increases in a declining interest rate environment. Increasing current and/or projected EPS will produce a higher Valuation. While long-term EPS growth would produce a corresponding long-term Valuation increase, concomitant long-term interest rate increases would offset EPS growth and depress the Valuation. The shorter a company's own business cycle, the higher its stock Valuation will be.

VITACOST.COM INC (NASDAQ:VITC) - Vitacost.com, Inc. operates as an online retailer and direct marketer of health and wellness products. It offers dietary supplements, such as vitamins, minerals, herbs or other botanicals, amino acids, and metabolites, as well as cosmetics, organic body and personal care products, sports nutrition, and health foods. The company sells its products directly to consumers through its Web site, vitacost.com, as well as through catalogs. It offers approximately 30,000 products from 1,600 third-party brands; and its own proprietary brands, such as Nutraceutical Sciences Institute, Cosmeceutical Sciences Institute, Best of All, Smart Basics, and Walker Diet. The companys vitamin and mineral products include multi-vitamins; lettered vitamins, such as vitamin A, C, D, E, and B-complex; and minerals, including calcium, magnesium, chromium, and zinc. Its herbal products comprise whole herbs, standardized extracts, herb combination formulas, and teas; and supplements consist of fatty acids, probiotics, anti-oxidants, phytonutrients, and condition-specific formulas. Vitacost.com, Inc.s sports nutrition products include protein and weight gain powders, meal replacements, nutrition bars, sport drinks, and pre and post-workout supplements; natural care products consist of various natural products for skin, body, hair, and oral health; and natural and organic food products comprise diet and weight management products, as well as organic and specialty products, such as organic peanut butter, gluten-free foods, and low mercury tuna and salmon. The company was formerly known as Natures Wealth Company and changed its name to Vitacost.com, Inc. in 2000. Vitacost.com, Inc. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida.

COLDWATER CREEK INC (NASDAQ:CWTR) - Coldwater Creek Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a multi-channel specialty retailer of women's apparel, accessories, jewelry, and gift items primarily in the United States. It operates premium retail stores and merchandise clearance outlet stores; and day spas, which offer various spa treatments, including massages, facials, body treatments, manicures, and pedicures, as well as an assortment of relevant apparel and lines of personal care products for women. The company also offers products through its e-commerce Web site, coldwatercreek.com, as well as through catalogs. As of January 30, 2010, it operated 356 premium retail stores. Coldwater Creek Inc. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Sandpoint, Idaho.

NU Skin Enterprises Inc (NYSE:NUS) - Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc. develops and distributes anti-aging personal care products and nutritional supplements worldwide. The company sells its personal care products under the Nu Skin brand; and nutritional supplements under the Pharmanex brand. Its personal care product line includes core systems, targeted treatments, total care, cosmetic, and Epoch, a product formulated with botanical ingredients. The companys nutritional supplements product line comprises micronutrient supplements, targeted solution supplements, and weight management products. It also sells Vitameal, which are nutritious meal products for starving children or purchased for personal food storage. In addition, the company offers other products and services consisting of digital content storage, water purifiers, and other household products. It sells its products primarily through a network of independent distributors in north Asia, the Americas, Greater China, Europe, and the south Asia/Pacific. The company also operates retail stores to sell its products in China. As of December 31, 2010, Nu Skin Enterprises operated 40 stores throughout China. The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Provo, Utah.

Systemax Inc (NYSE:SYX) - Systemax Inc. operates as a retailer of various brand name and private label products, including personal computers, notebook computers, consumer electronics, computer-related accessories, technology supplies, and industrial products through a system of branded e-commerce Web sites, direct mail catalogs, relationship marketers, and retail stores in North America and Europe. The companys portfolio of catalogs includes various brand names comprising CompUSA, TigerDirect.com, Global Computer Supplies, TigerDirect.ca, Misco, Global Industrial, ArrowStar, and Nexel. The companys Technology Products segment provides various brand name and private label products. This segment offers desktops, laptops, notebooks, laser printer toner and ink jet printer cartridges, flash memory, recordable disks, magnetic tape cartridges, hard disks, CD-ROM and DVD drives, printers, scanners, memory upgrades, data communication and networking equipment, monitors, digital cameras, plasma and LCD TVs, MP3 and DVD players, personal digital assistants, and packaged software. It also assembles PCs and sells computers and related products. The companys Industrial Products segment provides a range of industrial equipment and supplies. This segments products include material handling equipment, storage and shelving equipment, work benches, packaging supplies, furniture and office products, food service equipment and supplies, janitorial and maintenance supplies, HVAC, electrical and plumbing supplies, and consumable industrial products, such as first aid items, safety items, protective clothing, and OSHA compliance items. The company was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Port Washington, New York.

MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO., INC. (NYSE:MSM) - MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a direct marketer and distributor of metalworking and maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) products to industrial customers in the United States. It offers approximately 600,000 stock-keeping units representing a range of MRO products, including cutting tools; measuring instruments; tooling components; metalworking products; fasteners; flat stock; raw materials; abrasives; machinery hand and power tools; safety and janitorial supplies; plumbing supplies; materials handling products; power transmission; and electrical supplies. The company sells its products through its master catalogs, specialty and promotional catalogs, brochures, and the Internet to individual machine shops, Fortune 1000 companies, and government agencies, as well as markets to small, medium, and large companies in various sectors, including durable and non-durable goods manufacturing, education, and health care. MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. was founded in 1941 and is headquartered in Melville, New York with an additional office in Southfield, Michigan.

DELIA*S INC (NASDAQ:DLIA) - dELiA*s, Inc. operates as a direct marketing and retail company in the United States. It operates two brands, dELiA*s and Alloy. The companys dELiA*s brand develops, markets, and sells its own lifestyle brand and third-party brands through its retail stores, as well as via catalogs and the Internet. The dELiA*s brand offers a collection of apparel, dresses, swimwear, room wear, footwear, outerwear, and key accessories primarily for teenage girls. As of January 30, 2010, the company operated 109 dELiA*s mall-based specialty retail stores. Its Alloy brand markets and sells branded junior apparel, dresses, accessories, swimwear, footwear, and outerwear for young women through catalogs and Internet. The company also sells its products through direct mail catalogs and e-commerce Websites. dELiA*s, Inc. was founded in 1997 and based in New York, New York.

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