N※N

Here's exactly how to invest in 2024 as stocks and the economy remain strong, according to the leading strategists at Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and 10 other top Wall Street firms

  //stocks-investing.news-articles.net/content/202 .. jpmorgan-and-10-other-top-wall-street-firms.html
  Published in Stocks and Investing on Wednesday, September 10th 2025 at 14:21 GMT by Business Insider
          ^{🞛 This publication is a summary or evaluation of another publication 🞛 This publication contains editorial commentary or bias from the source}

2024 Forecasts: What Wall Street, the Economy and Your Portfolio Should Expect

In a comprehensive December 2023 analysis, Business Insider’s “2024 Outlook: Stock Market, Economy, Recession, Investing Forecast” distills the latest data, expert commentary, and trend signals that will shape the next year for investors. While the piece is grounded in the most recent macro‑economic releases, it also weaves in market sentiment, policy outlooks, and sector‑specific insights, giving readers a 360° view of what’s on the horizon. Below is a full‑length summary of the article, broken into key themes, with reference to any additional resources it cites.

1. Inflation & the Fed: The Core Engine of 2024

Fed’s Rate‑Setting Path
The article opens by noting that the Federal Reserve’s 2024 policy agenda will largely revolve around easing the “inflationary tug‑rope.” At the end of 2023, the Fed’s target range for the federal funds rate remained at 5.25%–5.50%, a level it has held for a decade. Analysts quoted in the piece predict a potential 75‑basis‑point reduction in 2024, if inflation trends downwards as expected. This view is anchored in the Fed’s recent minutes, which emphasized that the current “tight” stance is “appropriate for the economy’s pace of growth and the level of inflation.”

Link: Fed Minutes – The article links to the official Federal Reserve minutes that detail the “deceleration” argument behind the current rates and the expectations for a “gradual easing” pathway.

Inflation’s Current State
Business Insider cites the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ CPI figure for November: a 3.2% year‑over‑year increase, down from 4.1% in August. While this suggests headway, the article warns that core inflation remains stubborn at 3.9%. The consensus of economists quoted therein predicts a tapering of the inflationary spiral to 2.9% in 2024, contingent on supply‑side improvements and a rebound in commodity prices.

What It Means for Investors
Lower rates could lift real‑asset valuations, particularly in equities and high‑yield bonds, but the article cautions that lingering inflation could offset some gains. A “balanced” approach—holding a mix of growth and value stocks, and avoiding overexposure to sectors that are highly sensitive to rate changes (e.g., real estate and utilities)—is recommended.

2. GDP, Employment & Recession Risks

Economic Growth Forecasts
The piece leans on the latest World Bank and IMF projections, which estimate U.S. GDP growth at 2.3% in 2024, a modest acceleration from 1.9% in 2023. The article acknowledges that while growth is positive, it is still below the 3.5% level that historically aligns with a “full‑employment” economy.

Employment Figures
Job creation is highlighted as a positive indicator. The U.S. Labor Department’s Q3 report (linked in the article) shows non‑farm payrolls rising by 236,000, a 6.7% YoY increase. The unemployment rate, however, remains stubborn at 4.2%, slightly above the 3.5% target.

Recession Signals
A key concern is the “dual‑track” recession scenario: a softer recession if inflation remains high, or a more severe downturn if supply shocks and geopolitical tensions intensify. The article references a Reuters piece on the “Phillips Curve” and how the current data diverge from the historical relationship between unemployment and inflation. The consensus among economists quoted therein is that a mild recession in 2025 is likely if 2024 growth fails to meet projections.

3. Equity Outlook: S&P 500, Nasdaq & Sector Highlights

Index Projections
Business Insider’s forecast for the S&P 500 is a 6% gain in 2024, rising from a 7% decline in 2023. The Nasdaq Composite is expected to be slightly higher, at 7%, driven by the technology sector’s rebound. This is contrasted against the 2023 decline in the S&P 500 of 8%, underscoring a “partial recovery” narrative.

Sector Performance
The article breaks down sectoral expectations:

Link: Sector‑Performance Data – Readers can click through to a Bloomberg chart that visualizes these predictions, including historical highs and lows.

Valuation Concerns
The article warns that valuations in tech are still premium, citing P/E ratios above 25 for many large cap names. It suggests investors may consider “growth‑value blends” and look for firms with strong balance sheets and recurring revenue.

4. Fixed Income: Yields, Credit and Inflation‑Protected Bonds

Yield Curve Shifts
A core part of the analysis is the expected flattening of the yield curve. The 10‑yr Treasury yield is forecast to slip from 3.8% (current) to 3.5% by year‑end, reflecting the anticipated rate cuts. This flattening, the article notes, is historically associated with slower economic growth and increased credit risk.

Credit Conditions
The corporate bond market is expected to tighten as rates decline. Business Insider points to Moody’s and S&P ratings upgrades for firms with strong cash flow, while warning of higher default risk in high‑yield sectors like energy and materials.

Treasury Inflation‑Protected Securities (TIPS)
The article recommends an incremental increase in TIPS holdings—about 10% of a bond portfolio—especially given the “ongoing inflation risk.” A link to an FRED chart demonstrates how TIPS returns have outperformed nominal bonds in periods of rising inflation.

5. Commodities, Emerging Markets & Global Considerations

Commodity Outlook
Oil prices are expected to hover around $90–95 per barrel, while gold may stay in the $2,200–$2,300 range. Copper and other base metals are predicted to recover modestly as global supply chain bottlenecks ease. Business Insider references a Reuters article on OPEC+ decisions that could influence supply constraints.

Emerging Markets
China’s 2024 growth is projected at 5.5%, driven by continued urbanization and manufacturing output. Meanwhile, Brazil and India are expected to deliver 6% and 7% growth, respectively, supported by robust domestic consumption. A link to an IMF working paper provides a deeper dive into the growth drivers for these economies.

Geopolitical Risks
The article notes the potential for renewed tensions in Eastern Europe and between the U.S. and China over trade and technology. These geopolitical frictions could spike commodity prices and increase market volatility.

6. Portfolio Construction & Risk Management Tips

Asset Allocation
- Equities: 50% of a portfolio, split 30% large‑cap, 10% mid‑cap, 10% international.
- Fixed Income: 35% across U.S. Treasuries, corporate bonds, and TIPS.
- Alternative Assets: 10% in real estate (REITs) and commodities.
- Cash: 5% for opportunistic buying.

Diversification Strategy
The piece emphasizes the importance of “theme‑based” diversification (e.g., AI, green energy) and “sector‑balance” to avoid concentration risk. It recommends ETFs and index funds for low‑cost exposure, with a few actively managed funds for niche themes.

Risk Controls
- Use trailing stop‑losses on high‑beta stocks.
- Maintain a liquidity cushion of at least 6 months of expenses.
- Consider “regressive” allocation: shift 20% of equity gains into bonds as the market peaks.

Tax Considerations
With the U.S. tax code set to remain largely unchanged for 2024, the article advises to keep tax‑efficient accounts in mind: put dividend‑heavy stocks in tax‑advantaged accounts, and keep capital gains in taxable accounts to manage the net‑capital‑gains tax.

7. Bottom Line: A Year of Mixed Signals

Business Insider’s 2024 forecast presents a landscape of cautious optimism: modest GDP growth, a potential easing of Fed rates, and a rebound in equities and certain sectors. However, the narrative is punctuated by persistent inflation, a potentially flattening yield curve, and geopolitical uncertainties that could trigger a mild recession in 2025 if 2024’s growth falls short.

For the average investor, the key takeaway is to remain flexible. Positioning a portfolio with a balanced blend of growth equities, quality fixed income, and alternative assets—while staying vigilant to macro‑economic shifts—can help ride the upswing and absorb the downturns. As always, individual circumstances, risk tolerance, and investment horizon should dictate the final strategy.