




Breakingviews - Indonesia triggers key woman risk


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Indonesia’s “Key Woman Risk” and What it Means for 2025
In a recent Breakingviews commentary, Reuters highlighted a looming but often overlooked threat to Indonesia’s political and economic stability: the “key woman risk.” While the term itself is not widely used in mainstream policy circles, the piece frames it as a specific hazard that could erupt as the country approaches the 2025 electoral cycle. According to the article, the risk hinges on a combination of demographic change, shifting power dynamics, and the precarious position of women in Indonesia’s public and corporate spheres.
The Political Context
Indonesia’s current president, Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, has been in power for two terms and is nearing the end of his constitutional limit. The 2024 general election will decide whether Jokowi’s coalition, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI‑P) will maintain its grip on the presidency, or whether a new political bloc will emerge. Breakingviews notes that the electoral landscape is increasingly polarized, with the opposition coalition (Golkar, Nasdem, and a handful of regional parties) gaining momentum.
A key element in this equation is the participation of women in the upcoming political race. The commentary cites a Reuters‑linked article that explains how, since 2004, Indonesia has seen a steady rise in the number of women elected to parliament—from 22 to 91 out of 575 seats. However, that growth has stalled in recent years. According to the linked piece, only 8 women were selected to run as presidential or vice‑presidential candidates in the last election—a stark reminder that, while representation has improved numerically, the strategic influence of women remains limited.
Defining “Key Woman Risk”
In the Breakingviews piece, “key woman risk” refers to the potential loss of institutional memory, policy continuity, and network capital when senior female leaders are forced out, displaced, or marginalized. In Indonesia’s case, the risk is twofold:
- Political Instability – The resignation or ouster of a key woman in a high‑profile ministry (e.g., the Ministry of Education, Social Affairs, or the National Development Planning Agency) could destabilize ongoing reforms, especially those aimed at gender equality and inclusive growth.
- Economic Uncertainty – Indonesia’s private sector increasingly relies on women in senior roles—particularly in state‑owned enterprises and multinationals with local subsidiaries. Sudden changes in leadership can disrupt long‑term contracts, jeopardize investments, and weaken foreign‑direct‑investment (FDI) confidence.
The article stresses that the “key woman risk” is not a generic gender bias; rather, it is a risk triggered by specific political events. The commentary refers to a recent resignation of a senior female minister (linked to a scandal involving procurement irregularities), which served as a catalyst for the broader risk narrative.
Why 2025 Is Critical
2025 marks a pivotal moment for Indonesia. In addition to the post‑election consolidation period, the country will host the APEC summit—an event that could shape its trade policy and international image. Breakingviews argues that any political turbulence in the immediate aftermath of the 2024 election will spill over into 2025, potentially hampering the government’s ability to deliver on commitments made at APEC.
Moreover, the year 2025 is significant for Indonesia’s fiscal policy. The country is scheduled to roll out its 2026 budget, which will rely heavily on revenue from the oil and gas sector. A sudden shift in leadership could jeopardize regulatory certainty for upstream and downstream stakeholders, causing a domino effect on the broader economy.
The Role of Women in Indonesia’s Economy
A central pillar of the Breakingviews argument is the growing influence of women in Indonesia’s economic engine. The article linked in the commentary points out that women constitute roughly 45 % of the country’s workforce and are the largest demographic group in the informal sector. In 2023, Indonesia’s government launched the “Women in Leadership” initiative, which allocated $50 million to training female managers in key industries such as textiles, fisheries, and digital services.
The “key woman risk” therefore also touches on the broader gender‑equity agenda. Should Indonesia lose a few influential women in public office, it could set back the country’s efforts to empower half of its population—an outcome that would resonate beyond the political sphere into social development metrics, human‑capital indices, and even its standing in the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals.
Implications for Businesses and Investors
For multinational corporations and domestic investors, the Breakingviews piece underscores the need to monitor Indonesia’s political landscape beyond the headlines. The risk of leadership changes can affect:
- Supply Chain Reliability: Female CEOs of state‑owned enterprises such as PT Pertamina or PT Pupuk Indonesia play a critical role in maintaining supply chain continuity. Leadership turnover could disrupt production schedules and logistics networks.
- Regulatory Environment: Many reforms that have been championed by women—such as stricter environmental standards for mining and oil exploration—could be rolled back or stalled under new leadership.
- Human‑Capital Development: Initiatives aimed at upskilling women in technical fields could lose momentum if new administrations deprioritize them.
The commentary recommends that companies adopt a “risk‑adjusted” approach, incorporating scenario planning that considers leadership changes in key ministries and state‑owned enterprises. The article suggests establishing relationships with a broad base of stakeholders, including civil society organizations that champion women’s rights, to maintain a pulse on the ground realities.
Bottom Line
Indonesia’s “key woman risk” is a sophisticated lens through which to view the interplay between gender, politics, and economics. The Breakingviews piece argues that the country’s upcoming electoral and policy cycles could either reinforce the gains made by women in public life or undo them. For investors, policymakers, and scholars alike, the take‑away is clear: a nuanced understanding of who holds power—and why—will be essential to navigate Indonesia’s path through 2025 and beyond.
Read the Full reuters.com Article at:
[ https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/indonesia-triggers-key-woman-risk-2025-09-09/ ]